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2013 Projections (seasonal age 25) - Rest of Season Projections
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| YEAR | TEAM | AGE | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | TB | BB | SO | HBP | SF | SH | RBI | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | TAv | VORP | FRAA | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ARI | 19 | 43 | 152 | 140 | 17 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 51 | 11 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 0 | .221 | .283 | .364 | .213 | -7.9 | -2.2 | -0.9 |
| 2008 | ARI | 20 | 108 | 417 | 356 | 52 | 89 | 19 | 6 | 15 | 165 | 54 | 121 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 4 | .250 | .353 | .463 | .273 | 9.5 | -7.7 | 0.3 |
| 2009 | ARI | 21 | 138 | 588 | 526 | 84 | 158 | 30 | 7 | 26 | 280 | 55 | 137 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 86 | 20 | 5 | .300 | .366 | .532 | .297 | 35.2 | 9.3 | 4.6 |
| 2010 | ARI | 22 | 133 | 571 | 495 | 73 | 135 | 27 | 3 | 17 | 219 | 64 | 152 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 69 | 18 | 8 | .273 | .356 | .442 | .275 | 14.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| 2011 | ARI | 23 | 159 | 674 | 592 | 105 | 171 | 39 | 5 | 31 | 313 | 59 | 126 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 88 | 21 | 9 | .289 | .369 | .529 | .310 | 43.3 | 4.1 | 5.0 |
| 2012 | ARI | 24 | 150 | 628 | 554 | 107 | 155 | 24 | 4 | 17 | 238 | 63 | 121 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 67 | 18 | 8 | .280 | .355 | .430 | .279 | 20.7 | 8.2 | 3.1 |
| 2013 | ATL | 25 | 43 | 185 | 153 | 32 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 93 | 29 | 48 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 0 | .275 | .389 | .608 | .334 | 18.6 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Career | 774 | 3215 | 2816 | 470 | 781 | 154 | 29 | 122 | 1359 | 335 | 742 | 36 | 26 | 2 | 391 | 83 | 34 | .277 | .359 | .483 | .288 | 133.8 | 15.9 | 16.0 | ||
Advanced
'opp' stats - quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.| YEAR | Team | Lg | G | PA | TAv | oppAVG | oppOBP | oppSLG | oppTAv | BABIP | BPF | BRAA | repLVL | POS_ADJ | FRAA | BRR | BVORP | BWARP | VORP | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | SBN | A | 113 | 501 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .312 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| 2007 | ARI | MLB | 43 | 152 | .213 | .267 | .326 | .414 | .000 | .287 | 102 | -7.9 | 4.3 | -1.6 | -2.2 | -1.1 | -7.9 | -0.9 | -7.9 | -0.9 |
| 2007 | VIS | A+ | 32 | 150 | .356 | .267 | .337 | .416 | .000 | .409 | 103 | 16.3 | 4.2 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | MOB | AA | 71 | 306 | .318 | .269 | .341 | .407 | .000 | .344 | 102 | 18.9 | 8.6 | 0 | -1.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2008 | ARI | MLB | 108 | 417 | .273 | .262 | .327 | .413 | .000 | .332 | 103 | 5.8 | 11.6 | -4.4 | -7.7 | 0.9 | 9.5 | 0.3 | 9.5 | 0.3 |
| 2008 | TUC | AAA | 15 | 68 | .266 | .279 | .355 | .459 | .000 | .438 | 119 | 0.5 | 1.9 | -0.8 | -1.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2009 | ARI | MLB | 138 | 588 | .297 | .256 | .320 | .402 | .000 | .360 | 104 | 23.2 | 16.3 | -6.3 | 9.3 | -0.7 | 35.2 | 4.6 | 35.2 | 4.6 |
| 2009 | VIS | A+ | 2 | 9 | .358 | .302 | .351 | .443 | .000 | .250 | 91 | 0.9 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2010 | ARI | MLB | 133 | 571 | .275 | .250 | .315 | .387 | .000 | .354 | 102 | 8.7 | 16.0 | -5.9 | 2.9 | -0.8 | 14.5 | 1.8 | 14.5 | 1.8 |
| 2011 | ARI | MLB | 159 | 674 | .310 | .251 | .310 | .390 | .000 | .319 | 102 | 33.4 | 11.6 | -6.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 43.3 | 5.0 | 43.3 | 5.0 |
| 2012 | ARI | MLB | 150 | 628 | .279 | .254 | .311 | .403 | .000 | .327 | 103 | 12 | 10.8 | -6.3 | 8.2 | 0.3 | 20.7 | 3.1 | 20.7 | 3.1 |
| 2013 | ATL | MLB | 43 | 185 | .334 | .254 | .315 | .404 | .260 | .301 | 104 | 13.5 | 5.1 | -1.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 18.6 | 2.1 | 18.6 | 2.1 |
| Career | MLB | 3215 | .287 | .255 | .316 | .399 | .256 | .333 | 103 | 87.9 | 83.0 | -32.6 | 20.8 | 3.1 | 134.1 | 16.2 | 134.1 | 16.2 | ||
Statistics For All Levels
| Year | Team | Lg | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | TAv | VORP | FRAA | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | SBN | A | 501 | 71 | 115 | 28 | 1 | 12 | 66 | 52 | 96 | 15 | 7 | .263 | .347 | .413 | .151 | .000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | VIS | A+ | 150 | 27 | 43 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 28 | 9 | 4 | .341 | .439 | .540 | .198 | .356 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | MOB | AA | 306 | 48 | 80 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 53 | 37 | 51 | 10 | 7 | .309 | .405 | .556 | .247 | .318 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | ARI | MLB | 152 | 17 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 37 | 2 | 0 | .221 | .283 | .364 | .143 | .213 | -7.9 | -2.2 | -0.9 |
| 2008 | TUC | AAA | 68 | 13 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 0 | .279 | .353 | .508 | .230 | .266 | 0.0 | -1.4 | 0.0 |
| 2008 | ARI | MLB | 417 | 52 | 89 | 19 | 6 | 15 | 42 | 54 | 121 | 1 | 4 | .250 | .353 | .463 | .213 | .273 | 9.5 | -7.7 | 0.3 |
| 2009 | VIS | A+ | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .250 | .333 | .625 | .375 | .358 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2009 | ARI | MLB | 588 | 84 | 158 | 30 | 7 | 26 | 86 | 55 | 137 | 20 | 5 | .300 | .366 | .532 | .232 | .297 | 35.2 | 9.3 | 4.6 |
| 2010 | ARI | MLB | 571 | 73 | 135 | 27 | 3 | 17 | 69 | 64 | 152 | 18 | 8 | .273 | .356 | .442 | .170 | .275 | 14.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| 2011 | ARI | MLB | 674 | 105 | 171 | 39 | 5 | 31 | 88 | 59 | 126 | 21 | 9 | .289 | .369 | .529 | .240 | .310 | 43.3 | 4.1 | 5.0 |
| 2012 | ARI | MLB | 628 | 107 | 155 | 24 | 4 | 17 | 67 | 63 | 121 | 18 | 8 | .280 | .355 | .430 | .150 | .279 | 20.7 | 8.2 | 3.1 |
| 2013 | ATL | MLB | 185 | 32 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 28 | 29 | 48 | 3 | 0 | .275 | .389 | .608 | .333 | .334 | 18.6 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
Injury History beta
| Date On | Date Off | Transaction | Days | Games | Side | Body Part | Injury | Severity | Surgery Date | Reaggravation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-08-22 | 2012-08-25 | DTD | 3 | 0 | Left | Thigh | Tightness | Hamstring | - | - |
| 2012-07-29 | 2012-07-30 | DTD | 1 | 0 | Left | Ankle | Contusion | Foul Ball | - | - |
| 2012-06-21 | 2012-06-22 | DTD | 1 | 0 | - | Lower Leg | Cramps | - | - | |
| 2012-04-19 | 2012-04-21 | DTD | 2 | 0 | - | Thumb | Soreness | - | - | |
| 2012-04-09 | 2012-04-10 | DTD | 1 | 0 | Left | Thumb | Sprain | IP Joint | - | - |
| 2011-09-27 | 2011-09-27 | DTD | 0 | 0 | - | Face | Contusion | Bouncing Ball | - | - |
| 2011-09-08 | 2011-09-08 | DTD | 0 | 0 | - | General Medical | Illness | - | - | |
| 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Left | Elbow | Contusion | HBP | - | - |
| 2011-03-21 | 2011-03-23 | Camp | 2 | 0 | - | Knee | Soreness | - | ||
| 2011-03-18 | 2011-03-18 | Camp | 0 | 0 | - | Back | Contusion | Pickoff Throw | - | |
| 2010-09-18 | 2010-10-02 | DTD | 14 | 12 | Left | Shoulder | Cartilage Injury | Labrum Tear | - | |
| 2010-09-15 | 2010-09-17 | DTD | 2 | 2 | Left | Shoulder | Soreness | - | ||
| 2010-09-12 | 2010-09-13 | DTD | 1 | 1 | Left | Shoulder | Soreness | - | ||
| 2010-08-31 | 2010-09-11 | DTD | 11 | 9 | Left | Shoulder | Strain | - | ||
| 2010-07-28 | 2010-07-29 | DTD | 1 | 1 | Right | Hip | Tightness | - | ||
| 2010-03-25 | 2010-03-26 | Camp | 1 | 0 | Left | Ankle | Sprain | - | ||
| 2009-09-03 | 2009-09-04 | DTD | 1 | 1 | Face | Soreness | Contact Lens Problem | - | ||
| 2009-08-06 | 2009-08-26 | 15-DL | 20 | 18 | Right | Abdomen | Strain | Oblique | - | |
| 2009-06-07 | 2009-06-09 | DTD | 2 | 2 | Left | Shoulder | Soreness | - | ||
| 2008-09-02 | 2008-09-06 | DTD | 4 | 3 | Head | Concussion | HBP | - | ||
| 2008-07-09 | 2008-08-29 | 15-DL | 51 | 43 | Left | Abdomen | Strain | Oblique | - | |
| 2008-06-01 | 2008-06-02 | DTD | 1 | 1 | General Medical | Respiratory | Flu | - | ||
| 2008-04-27 | 2008-04-28 | DTD | 1 | 1 | Left | Thigh | Spasms | Hamstring | - | |
| 2008-04-03 | 2008-04-27 | Minors | 24 | 0 | Right | Shoulder | Inflammation | - | - | |
| 2007-10-01 | 2007-10-04 | DTD | 3 | 0 | Left | Wrist | Contusion | HBP | - | |
| 2006-04-06 | 2006-04-20 | Minors | 14 | 0 | Right | Shoulder | Strain | - | - |
Compensation
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BP Articles
Justin Upton is referenced in the following articles.
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BP Chats
| Date | Question | Answer |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-01-30 13:00:00 | With Pujols and Fielder now in the AL, how many NL players are the type of guy that casual fans will know and want to buy a ticket to see? Lincecum? Strasburg? I'm struggling to find a few.
(Stay Gold, Man from Outsiders) | You mean besides Will Venable? It does seem like the NL is in a bit of a down cycle when it comes to minting sluggers. There is still Joey Votto and Matt Kemp, maybe Ryan Braun doesn't get suspended, and someone like Justin Upton steps into a greater light, or Mike Stanton captures the world's attention... I would buy a ticket to watch Troy Tulowitzki play. (Steven Goldman) |
| 2011-11-15 13:00:00 | Is '12 the year that Justin Upton and Andrew McCutcheon take "The Leap" and reach MVP candidate levels? I have each as potential keepers in a very deep NL only league, but with salaries in the mid 30s for each (260 budget) I'm on the fence. (Silv from NY, NY) | Yes to Upton, no to McCutchen. McCutchen will still be very good, but I don't think he'll be an elite fantasy producer like Upton is/will be. That said, you're probably still looking at an even-value proposition on McCutchen at worst in a league like that, so he's likely keepable unless you don't want to commit to two guys who are that highly-priced. (Derek Carty) |
| 2011-01-18 13:00:00 | I've got an outfield heavy team in an 11 team, standard 5x5 league with 5 keepers (boring, I know). I'm currently thinking David Wright, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Justin Verlander and Matt Latos. But I also have Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus and Cole Hamels as options. I've recently had the skill of kicking ass drafting starting pitching in the 9th-15th rounds, but who knows if that continues... Am I keeping the worst OF in Upton just because of hype? Which five of those eight do you keep? (Adam from Philly) | I would see what you can get in a trade for Upton--I think he turns into something great, but you might find someone who buys him on the hype of his turning into even more. I would keep Bruce over Kemp though. Verlander/Latos is the right call for the SP, thanks to their respective parks. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-12-14 13:00:00 | Is that more your confidence in Rasmus or you don't think J. Upton ever lives up to potential? (The Dude from Ca) | More a matter of confidence in Rasmus than a slight of Justin Upton. Whether it's fair or not, the expectations mounded atop Upton seem bound to be disappointed, but he'll be an excellent player for a long time. (Christina Kahrl) |
| 2010-12-14 13:00:00 | If the Phils can't deal Blanton, do you think there's a chance they'd move Cole Hamels instead? It's right out of Amaro's playbook - get the bird in the hand (Lee locked up long-term) instead of waiting to see if Hamels re-ups before he hits free agency. If they try to move Hamels, where does he end up? Arizona in a deal involving Justin Upton, perhaps? (ColonelTom from Richmond, KY) | It's possible they'd move Hamels, but I can't see them putting somebody in Domonic Brown's way as being the objective. Of course, they do have just one more year to go with Raul Ibanez... (Christina Kahrl) |
| 2010-11-23 13:00:00 | Please tell me Justin Upton will end up in Boston instead of Seattle or Toronto.
What're the latest rumors? (Marco from Virginia Beach) | I'm about 98 percent certain Upton's not going anywhere. I don't think Arizona is particularly interested in trading him, but marketing him when they're not pressured to actually make a deal might shake loose better offers than marketing him under the pressure of an approaching deadline or contract end. I wrote about this at Pinstriped Bible last week: http://www.pinstripedbible.com/2010/11/19/to-the-mats-power-of-towers/ (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2010-11-16 13:00:00 | Dom Brown for Justin Upton straight up. Who hangs up first? (Tim from Boston) | Kevin Towers, unless Amaro quickly adds "and $50 million" and the D'backs are broke. (Ben Lindbergh) |
| 2010-10-14 13:00:00 | I don't have a question, I just wanted to point out that I just saw that Donovan Tate was born in 1990. I feel really, really old. (saccabbee from Austin, TX) | My first realization that I would never be a major leaguer came when Justin Upton was drafted at 17 years old. Felix Hernandez is about two weeks younger than I am. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-09-21 13:00:00 | I thought I was all set for years to come with Matt Kemp and Justin Upton as two of my annual freezers. Can that still be true going forward, even without one getting a new head and the other a new shoulder? (Yatchisin from Santa Barbara) | Upton has been disappointingly average, but since he's still young I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. I would hate to not have him if he returns to developing like he should. Kemp's 2010 is very worrisome, and it's something I'm going to look at in detail this offseason. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-08-26 13:00:00 | Marc, my team has turned it around and I'm gearing up for the stretch drive. I don't want to trade anymore draft picks so I'm thinking of trading one of my keeper worthy guys to fill any holes and strengthen my roster. I can only keep 4 out of Braun, Car-Gon, Wright, Teixeira, Justin Upton and Mat Latos. I have some other young stud pitchers but am thinking that pitchers aren't worth keeping in this league. So which 4 players would you keep? Thanks Marc (DanDaMan from Sea Cliff) | Braun, Wright, Latos, and then it's down to Upton or Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez is awesome, but if you're playing head-to-head and not roto, his road stats could be a problem since they won't even out the same way in the standings. Teixeira is great, but he plays first base (the deepest position) and can probably bring you back a lot in a trade if a team is in need of one. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-08-26 13:00:00 | 6 keeper slots, head to head league. Hits, OBP, SLG, Total Bases / IP, HR allowed, Holds and K/BB ratio are the extra categories we use on top of the standard ones.
Who do you keep out of these 8 candidates? Kinsler, Wright, Howard, Justin Upton, Braun, Rasmus, Nelson Cruz, King Felix. (Teraxx from Strong Island, NY) | Wright, Braun, Rasmus, Felix, Kinsler for sure. Then it's kind of a toss up for me between Cruz and Upton--Cruz is probably better short-term, but Upton long-term, so that last one is up to your preference. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-07-01 14:00:00 | Is there a player in baseball with better all around tools than Josh Hamilton? Its pretty awesome watching him when he's healthy and in the zone...Justin Upton? (ramjam36 from Fort Worth, TX) | Both good candidates. Hamilton is nothing short of ridiculous. The fact that he's this good after almost throwing his career, hell, his life away, shows just what at amazing athlete he is. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2010-06-10 13:00:00 | What do you think Justin Upton's final line will be? You think he can come close to this projection?
.275/30/100/20 (Lance from Boston, MA) | Not if he keeps striking out at pre-2009 rates, he won't. I thought that was over with, but here we go again with the Justin Upton who can't make contact. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-06-10 13:00:00 | What the hell do I do with Justin Upton (taken 11'th overall)? And Dracut isn't Eastern MA, it's Southern NH (Jack from Boston) | It's more like Northeastern MA! (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-05-05 13:00:00 | Marc, I need some serious help. I thought I drafted really well with a bunch of 4 and 5 star guys, but here I sit in 12th place. I have Kinsler back and Wright and Teixeira seem to be turning things around, but Justin Upton, Brett Anderson, Bucholtz and Kershaw have been disappointments and Ianetta, Jurrjens, Javi Vazquez and Scherzer have been awful. There trade value is non-existent to low. Time to cut bait on any of them? (DanDaMan from 12th Place) | DanDaMan, it's been just over a month. Here's my take on fantasy: you get frustrated before you get worried. I try to be very patient, because if you get rid of a player that you had that much faith in just weeks ago based on a small sample, then you're going to regret it later far more often than not.
I'm currently in a super-deep AL-only league where you need five outfielders--three of mine were Jack Cust, Mike Cameron and Rick Ankiel. I'm panicking a little more in that league just because there are literally no replacements (the best available OF on waivers has 8 at-bats), but in all of my others that have bad things going on (injuries, early struggles, etc.) I'm just waiting it out. Don't panic. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-04-21 14:00:00 | Has Heyward surpassed Justin Upton on the road to Cooperstown? (ccweinmann from seattle) | I am just as impressed with Heyward as the next guy, but I think we all need to calm down. Right now it's a wonderful story, hometown kid, 20 years old, highly touted, actually delivering to start the season, but let's let him finish the year out before enshrining him. I wish him all the success in the world, but if 50 PA isn't enough evidence for anything else, it certainly isn't enough to anoint him the messiah of baseball. (Eric Seidman) |
| 2010-03-04 13:00:00 | Who do you like for the bigger year: Granderson, Justin Upton, or Crawford? (derek from dc) | Well, my combined outfielders list is going up today or tomorrow, depending on how long I chat here. Right now I have it as Crawford/Upton/Granderson (though Granderson is four-star), but I can see Upton going crazy enough to leapfrog over Crawford. Just not a big enough possibility of that for me to rank them that way to begin with. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-03-04 13:00:00 | Justin Upton's new deal, good or bad? The Diamondbacks appear to be reading your fantasy ratings. (Larry from Bridgewater, NJ) | The Upton brothers are going to get dual restraining orders to keep me from ever being near either of them. I like the deal a lot, especially since he's a free agent again before he's 30, which means they can sign him again.
By the way, I have a present for all for you guys: Combined Outfielder Rankings (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-03-04 13:00:00 | I have eight keepers for this season in a 12-team league. Without me telling you everyone, I have kept only one pitcher (Tim Lincecum) and one outfielder (Justin Upton). We start five outfielders. I also have managed to trade for the top pick in the draft. Am I stupid to lock up Stephen Strasburg, despite him not making an immediate impact, or would you go with Adam Jones, potential "fantasy monster" as you describe him? These are the only two guys I'm debating on for the pick. (Jimmy from DC) | I *love* Adam Jones. And so does PECOTA. Strasburg will be easier to acquire outside of keepers than Jones, IMO. I'd keep Jones. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-02-09 13:00:00 | How good do you think Justin Upton will be over the next few years? Would you rather have him or Ryan Braun? (Dennis from LA) | Upton draws frequent comparisons to Junior Griffey, which is pretty high praise, though not having the ability to play center field is a strike against that comparison. That said, he's more athletic than Braun, much less of a liability in the field, and almost four years younger. Much as I love Braun - and as a Brewers fan by marriage, I love watching him hit - this is no contest. (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2010-01-13 13:00:00 | In what year does Justin Upton challenge Albert Pujols for the NL MVP award? (Bossman Sr. from Tampa Bay) | Not this year but he'll take another step toward superstardom. (John Perrotto) |
| 2009-12-09 13:00:00 | Who's the most valuable commodity in baseball, taking into consideration his age, contract/status and growth/decline? Justin Upton? (Jackson from Philly, Pennsylvania) | Strasburg, probably. Once you put contract status in the mix, you're really down to prospects and 0-1 guys. Andrus. Weiters. Kershaw. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-12-01 13:00:00 | What do you predict Justin Upton's average draft position will be in next spring's fantasy drafts? Going into his age-22 season, is it reasonable to expect him to put it all together after last year's ups and downs? (BR from NYC) | Not quite sure on draft position yet, as I'm still ironing out all of that stuff in my head, but I'm with you on thinking that this will be the year where people realize holy crap, Justin Upton is awesome. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2009-11-19 13:00:00 | Who hangs up first on a Justin Upton for Bumgarner-and-Posey swap? (Martin from Tucson) | The Diamondbacks, largely because Miguel Montero is pretty good. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-10-09 13:30:00 | Fun subjective question: Based on what you've seen and older scouts you know, who are the five most physically talented prospects of the past 25-30 years? Griffey, A-Rod, Bo Jackson, Eric Davis, Strawberry? (Jonathan from New York) | I love this question, but the discussion would take . . . years. Justin Upton comes to mind for recent guys, Dave Winfield if we can go back a few more years. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2009-09-02 13:00:00 | How many players would take over the next 10 years ahead of Matt Kemp? Would there be any other outfielders on that list? (ssjames from Orange, CA ) | Justin Upton would be an outfielder ahead of him on my list for sure. (Eric Seidman) |
| 2009-09-08 13:00:00 | I need some help returning my fantasy team to its former glory, and I hear you're the man to do it. We're in a 6x6 Head to Head league, and get 6 keepers - name your 6: Wright, Howard, Holliday, BJ Upton, J. Upton, CC Sabathia, J. Lester, M. Wieters, M. Cain (dtwhite from Toronto) | Ooh, lots of good options. I like Wright for his well-roundedness, Justin Upton for being Justin Upton, Sabathia and Lester because that would give you two excellent aces for each week in head-to-head (ZOMG double starters weeks). After that it's a little iffier. Holliday has a great bat, Wieters is young and talented but unproven at the major league level, and B.J. Upton is having a hard time coming back from that shoulder problem, at least offensively. You could probably trade Howard for a better keeper pick, assuming someone in your league overrates him, no? (Marc Normandin) |
| 2009-07-24 16:30:00 | Hi Eric, thanks for the chat. I own Justin Upton in a dynasty points league (have his rights for the next four years after this one). If I decided to trade him, what would be an appropriate haul? Or is he, as I suspect, just someone to hold onto for the duration as a franchise cornerstone? (Dennis from California) | A 21 yr old decent fielding and athletic outfielder currently hitting .291/.363/.529 as, like I said, a 21 yr old. You should take this question, rip it up, and just pretend it was never asked! (Eric Seidman) |
| 2009-05-21 14:00:00 | Who will be the best in 5 years out of these guys: Justin Upton, Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, Travis Snider? (Mike from Utica,NY) | Upton, with Longoria close behind. Upton should be in the home-run contest; he hits ridiculously impressive shots. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-05-21 14:00:00 | If you were doing a Nate Silver style top 50, would Justin Upton crack the top 10? Top 5? (bam022 from Chicago) | Top 12. I'm irrational about him at a .97 Adam Jones level. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-05-21 14:00:00 | Hiya Joe. Better numbers the rest of this season: Nate McLouth or Justin Upton? (YD from Philly) | Ditka.
(Upton.) (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-05-07 14:00:00 | Hi Kevin. On Justin Upton... just another hot streak, or just the beginning? (Drew from Ohio) | B. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2009-05-04 14:00:00 | Do you see Justin Upton's recent hot streak continuing? Someone in my fantasy league cut him and I own Pat Burrell. (Glenn from RI) | Yes, I do. Grab him now. He might make the All-Star team. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-05-04 14:00:00 | Given his contract and youth, what outfielders in MLB would you take over Markakis for the next six years? (Steve from DC) | Justin Upton, Grady Sizemore (probably). Um...after that it's tough. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-05-04 14:00:00 | Long term, Matt Kemp of Justin Upton? (Jonathan from New York) | Upton.
That kicks off the lightning round. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-04-13 14:00:00 | What's the story with Justin Upton? He's been dropped in several of my fantasy leagues and I'm itching to pick him up, but are they really going to send him to AAA? There's no way he's not one of the 3 best OF on that team... (Chad from NYC) | Grab him. The Diamondbacks are letting Eric Byrnes' $10 million contract dictate his playing time, in part because he's healthy and they have to play him in order to restore some of his value on the trade market. Upton had an awful spring and is off to a bad start, but given how uneven the D-Backs' offense looks, I'd be surprised if he does more than a brief refresher course in Triple-A, if that. His talent level at the moment and his massive upside mean he won't be kept down long. (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2009-04-20 13:00:00 | In the last 5 years or so, the following statements have been generally true about the D-Backs: (1) they have had a lot of highly-touted hitting prospects in their minor league system, (2) those same prospects are currently having a lot of trouble putting runs on the board at the major league level, and (3) Carlos Quentin didn't take off until he landed in Chicago. If you had to speculate, what do you think is going on in the desert? (Randy from Ann Arbor, MI) | Do you have to look at Bob Melvin a little? His handling of Justin Upton this year sure is less than impressive, and he's got an affection for Tony Clark that's a little weird. Young players need to play, both for reps and so that they can develop without feeling that their career lives or dies on their next AB.
I don't know if Melvin is the cause of the stagnation of some of these guys, but I don't think he's helped them. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-04-16 13:00:00 | Justin Upton. Have you seen him? Not just his numbers, but his at-bats. He really looks awful. Unable to hit breaking balls, really just not looking good at the plate at all. No doubt he's supremely talented but he's clearly way out of whack, and seems to have been so from the start of spring training. I'm having a hard time figuring out how a 21 year old is going to be able to make the necessary adjustments on the fly. Comments? (ccweinmann from seattle) | If he's that out of sorts, maybe they should send him down for a bit to get him consistent playing time, rather than messing with his playing time in the bigs. We've got a guy who has the talent to be the next Big Thing, so it's a shame to see his development messed with. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2009-03-03 13:00:00 | Thanks for taking questions today, Marc. Jay Bruce, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp: who's better this year and who's better in 2010? (Patrick from MPLS) | I'm listening to my Last.fm radio today by the way, so some random things are popping up. Soundgarden - Big Dumb Sex is on right now.
Bruce worries me a bit--he got by on his massive talent alone last year, but clearly wasn't ready for consistent production yet. He's going to be fun to watch as he matures and learns to adjust to the majors. I think right now that Matt Kemp is your safest bet for 2009, but by 2010 I might put Upton in front of him, and maybe even Bruce depending on how fast he moves along. Kemp's nice in fantasy because he does a bit of everything, but I would like to see a better contact rate from him so I can trust his batting average more. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2009-02-24 13:00:00 | Which young outfielder do you want in 2009 and beyond: Adam Jones or Justin Upton? (shamah from NYC) | Just based on the defensive difference, I'd take Jones. I'm not sure that opinion will be shared. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-02-06 13:00:00 | Which absurdly young stud has the better '09: Jay Bruce, Justin Upton? (Andrew from Ohio) | I still cannot see Bruce's name without getting ELO's "Don't Bring Me Down" stuck in my head. So thanks, Andrew. Thanks a lot. My instinct is Upton based on his strong September, though Bruce was also quite good that month. If I say I think they'll both be good, is that a cop-out? If I had long-term chips, I'd bet Upton. (Steven Goldman) |
| 2008-09-12 13:00:00 | what player do you think will turn into the carlos quinten of 2009? a player stuck between AAA and the majors and never gets a chance to prove himself but when he finally does he goes off (krgrecw from cola sc) | I think it's a bit of a misconception that Quentin was never given an opportunity in Phoenix--he did, and he blew it. The Snakes then made the overlapping decisions to bring up Justin Upton and (unfortunately) to commit to Eric Byrnes on a multi-year deal. The former made sense, and the latter was something a few of us here panned pretty vociferously at the time. The upshot was that Quentin became available, and while dealing from a surplus is fine in principle, the Snakes didn't have a surplus, they had an affectation for Eric Byrnes. That's a gift that's going to keep on giving.
As a result, I don't have an answer per se, in that Quentin's situation was unfortunate, but then his explosion, to this extent, was also very much unanticipated, both inside and outside the game. A year ago, some people might have said Steven Pearce was that guy; it's fun to say that Dallas McPherson could be, but he's not that good either. If you're looking for guys who had bumpy rookie years who should blossom as sophomores, I'd suggest Carlos Gonzalez in Oakland, or Jeff Clement in Seattle. (Christina Kahrl) |
| 2008-08-27 13:00:00 | Will-thanks for the chat. John Perrotto thinks the Dodgers will make a push for CC this offseason. Would teaming CC, Billz, Kuroda and Kershaw together form the best rotation in baseball?
Who will be better long-term: Kemp or Justin Upton? (raygu1 from burlington, nj) | Hmm. Sabathia at the head of any rotation is darned good. Not sure it's the best ... the Rays young staff will all be back, with Price and maybe Davis. Twins staff is really good, but lacks that "ace" unless Liriano comes all the way back. Giants could be outrageously good if Bumgardner pushes his way up next year and Sanchez comes back. (Will Carroll) |
| 2008-08-27 13:00:00 | Will-Who will be better long-term: Kemp or Justin Upton?
(raygu1 from burlington, nj) | Different players, but I'd take Upton SLIGHTLY. He's younger (I think) and with his brother's development pattern, I'd think that he's ahead of him on the curve. (Will Carroll) |
| 2008-08-22 13:00:00 | Thanks for the chat. Chances of Kemp outperforming Justin Upton long term??? (raygu1 from burlington, nj) | Long-term, I like Upton better. Kemp is going to be a great player, but I think Upton has the chance to be one we won't forget about for a long time. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2008-08-18 13:00:00 | How does Justin Upton fit back into the Diamondbacks lineup (or does he?) when he comes off the DL? (Swingingbunts from NY) | I don't think Chad Tracy has played so well that he keeps Upton out of the lineup, so a situation where Jackson moves back to first, Dunn to left and Upton to right, with Tracy getting 2-3 starts a week for everyone, seems most likely. Having to play between Jackson and Dunn has to be getting old for Chris Young. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2008-07-25 14:00:00 | If you had to pick one position player to build a major league team around, given talent and contract status, who would it be?
Maybe relatedly, what can Rays fans hope for from Longoria's peak? (Stephanie from DC) | Longoria wouldn't be the worst idea in the world. Maybe David Wright or Jose Reyes, tough to choose. Justin Upton, except he's a right fielder. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2008-06-27 14:00:00 | Justin Upton needs AAA time, true or false and he's on pace to strikeout 170 times. (Mike from Arizona) | Maybe in a perfect world, but he can obviously play, and last I checked, 170 Ks doesn't carry some special stigma, beyond going onto your permanent record. (Christina Kahrl) |
| 2008-06-20 13:30:00 | Who'll be better for the rest of the year, Justin Upton or Jay Bruce? Who'll have a better career? (Mike from Queens) | Upton's contact issues are real, so I'd say Bruce in the short term. Long term, there aren't many properties more valuable than Jay Bruce, but Upton is one of them. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2008-06-17 15:00:00 | Who puts up better numbers here on out - Justin Upton or Delmon Young? (graffblood from Saint Paul) | Upton. Upton, Upton, Upton, Upton, Upton. Upton. (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2008-05-22 13:00:00 | Hey Will. As always, thanks for the chat!
I know you're probably tired of Smoltz questions, but what do you think about the prospect of either Soriano or Smoltz being effective closers again this season? I have them both on my fantasy team's DL and, if you think either of them will close again full time (or split duties), I'm going to trade away my George Sherrill for Justin Upton. You're the deciding factor!
(Ameer from Bloomington, IN) | I'm not so much tired of the questions as I am a bit frustrated that people don't seem to get it on this. Smoltz's shoulder wore down when he was a closer before and now again as a starter. The shoulder is a problem independent of the role. Sherrill is way over his head as are the Orioles -- and I have an interesting note on them in today's UTK - and Upton is the wow. If the trade is reliant on one of them being effective, well, sure -- one of them, for a while, maybe in series. (Will Carroll) |
| 2008-04-29 14:00:00 | You said Morales is two months other than you are, so he has plenty of time to turn it around. Are you implying that you still have time to turn it around? Also, do you think a 26-year old college dropout that stares at his fantasy baseball team all day still has a chance at a Roy Halladay-like revival? (mkvallely from Florissant) | Not that I thought I could be a major leaguer, but the day that "dream" was shattered was when Justin Upton was drafted at age-17. Roy Halladay? C'mon, at least pick someone with a fastball that tops out at 70. Like Barry Zito. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2008-04-29 14:00:00 | Along the same lines as the Tamp Starters question, should I be looking to move one of Chris Young, Justin Upton, or Mark Reynolds? Not only are they all on the same team but they are all right handed making their value run that much closer together on a day to day basis. (Forden from Alberta) | I'd move Reynolds. His strikeout rate is bothersome, and that's coming from someone with an Adam Dunn t-shirt in his closet. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2008-04-29 14:00:00 | Marc - In a 9X9 league heavily weighted towards all the hit categories, would you trade Justin Upton to get Todd Helton? Helton was a top 25 player in this league last year. Thanks! (Jeff from Chicago) | That's the wrong guy to ask me about getting rid of. Upton is a beast. What are the cats? (Marc Normandin) |
| 2008-04-29 14:00:00 | J.Upton - sell high for 08? (George from STL) | Justin Upton rules! You guys are going to hurt his feelings. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2008-04-25 15:00:00 | Can you think of any analogue to Justin Upton's performance right now.
A-Rod was similarly dominant at age 20, but other than him, does this have any parallel? (bam022 from Chicago) | Tony Conigliaro hit 24 homers and .290/.354/.530 for the 1964 Red Sox as a 19 year old, which is pretty much the gold standard for teenage success for a hitter. Mel Ott (.322/.397/.524, 16 HR) also had a great Age 19 season. Those two would be a good start.
Homers aren't the only way to look at this obviously, but rather than worry about the number of plate appearances, I just did a quick list of the best single season hitter performances ranked by homers at B-Ref: http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/RmaC (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2008-04-17 13:00:00 | How good can Justin Upton be this year? I know he's projected to be an MVP-caliber player at some point in his career, but the kid's only 20 now! When was the last time we saw a MVP-type season from a 20/21 year old hitter? (astein from Boston) | Bill Simmons made a comment yesterday -- actually he was citing a friend's e-mail -- about LeBron James, in which he asked this friend what LeBron James's upside was and the friend said "he doesn't have one". That's sort of how I feel about Justin Upton. I don't necessarily think that he's likely to be an MVP candidate this year. But given his combination of pedigree and prodigy -- it's certainly *possible*. (Nate Silver) |
| 2008-04-17 13:00:00 | If Tim Lincecum and Justin Upton aren't 1 and 2 on your most valuable commodities list consider your system broken. (ChrisLDuncan from Ames, IA) | People were saying that about Jose Reyes at this time last year. (Nate Silver) |
| 2008-04-01 14:00:00 | For power hitting this year: Justin Upton or Adam Jones? (poludamas from Cambridge) | Honestly, that's pretty much a wash for me -- I think both will hit 18-22. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2008-03-25 14:00:00 | i have to start 3 out of
swisher, victorino, c young, j upton, milledge and hermida
who should it be (jphan44 from boston) | Depends on the kind of league you're in, but Swisher should be a definitely; his swing--from both sides of the plate--is *perfect* for the Cell. Play wait-and-see with Upton and Milledge; ideally, you're in a keeper league, because Justin Upton's not going to have a breakout campaign. (Christina Kahrl) |
| 2008-03-11 12:00:00 | Is it possible that Justin Upton is a little undervalued going into this season? i.e., is Upton *more* ready to mash than he is thought to be? What kind of season do you envision for the kid? (Humphrey from Phoenix, AZ) | In fairness, there's a little Cameron Maybin here, in that Upton was kind of rushed to the majors to cover a problem for a team in contention. He has more experience and had more success at higher levels than Maybin did, but I'm not convinced he's ready to be an MLB right fielder at 20. Love him, love his upside, think his slipping #5 in the NASA draft was criminal, but just not excited about '08. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2008-03-07 13:00:00 | PECOTA seems to think Justin Upton is ready right now. I understand that in terms of potential, we are probalby talking about one of the better prospects of our time, but do you actually think he is capable of pushing 20/20 at twenty years old? He looked really over-matched last year against the breaking stuff. (Matt from St. Paul) | The 20/20 numbers aren't the ones I'd be worried about with Upton. If he has a bad year, it'll probably be because he hits .245 or something. (Nate Silver) |
| 2008-03-05 13:00:00 | With Adam Jones ripping up Spring Training who do you think puts up better numbers this year, him or a scuffling Justin Upton? (Joe from NY) | Meh, pitchers don't really have it together at this time of year, and hitters have to get their swings in before they get going. I don't pay much attention to spring training stats, honestly. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2008-01-29 16:00:00 | I'm trying to get a read on Justin Upton for the 2008 fantasy season. What is your prediction for his numbers for 2008? Griffey Jr. circa 1989? Or 1990? Neither? (tommybones from brooklyn) | I hope to write a little about Upton in one of my upcoming columns. The short answer is this: it's very rare for a hitter to reach the majors on merit before the age of 20 and NOT turn put together a Hall of Fame, or at least a multiple-All-Star, career. I don't think Upton's ready to duplicate Griffey's sophomore season yet - Griffey might have been the most precocious hitter of my lifetime, him or A-Rod. But I think Upton could push a .500 slugging average this year, albeit with poor plate discipline. (Rany Jazayerli) |
| 2008-01-29 16:00:00 | How would you rank these young outfielders (real baseball) for 2008: Lastings Milledge, Justin Upton, Chris Young, Jermida Hermida. Also, what's your brief, chat-level take on Eric Walker's latest work? (Will Brown from Dolores, Colo.) | Wow, I love all four of those guys. Hermida is one of My Guys (copyright Joe Sheehan), a guy who has already proven he can pound major league pitching and is just 23 (okay, he turns 24 tomorrow). And I think Young's walk rate will jump this year and he'll be an elite-level centerfielder.
I'll rank them Hermida/Young/Upton/Milledge, but there's not much gap between the first three. And Milledge is not chopped liver either. I think Walker has a point. We just don't have strong evidence that steroid use leads to performance improvement. Unfortunately, we may never have that evidence one way or another, because we'll never know with complete accuracy which players were juicing and which ones weren't. (Rany Jazayerli) |
| 2008-01-28 13:00:00 | Hey Bryan, how do you rank the following crop of young stud outfielders as to their career peaks - Bruce, Justin Upton, Rasmus, Jones, Maybin? (dtimmeny from NYC) | Upton, Bruce, Jones, Rasmus, Maybin. Not a slight against anyone, I think they will all be pretty good. (Bryan Smith) |
BP Roundtables
| Date | Roundtable Name | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-04-05 09:30:00 | Season Opener Roundtable | Jason Heyward versus Justin Upton is one of the arguments I'm looking forward to the most over the next decade. So. Good. (Marc Nomandin) |
| 2009-10-15 17:00:00 | 2009 NLCS Game One (Phillies/Dodgers) | Quite legit. .268/.373/.506, 36 homers, 20/23 steals, plus defense - that's a pretty great season. Our sortable WARP, which doesn't have a position sort function and seems to be using a different version of FRAA than is on our DT cards has him at 7.8 WARP, ahead of Ethier at 6.9 and Justin Upton at 5.1. (Jay "Werthless" Jaffe) |
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BP Annual Player Comments
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