<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

He's probably very handsome. Josh Thole
New York Mets [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats L
Age 22
6' 1"
190 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 KNG Rk 110 13 4 0 1 12 7 25 1 1 -0.7 .235 .300 .306 -.616 .165 .200 .214 .118 -32.2 13-1B -3 7-C -3 -3.0
2007 SAV A 458 46 17 0 0 36 61 57 4 4 0.4 .267 .372 .311 -.348 .214 .299 .256 .199 -33.8 102-1B -9 11-C -3 -4.1
2008 SLU A+ 402 49 25 2 5 56 45 38 2 1 -3.2 .300 .382 .427 -.106 .258 .329 .381 .251 1.6 70-C -9 11-1B -2 -0.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 1:22 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 519 60 28 2 8 54 55 83 2 2 -0.5 .267 .348 .385 -.028 .271 .351 .404 .264 12.6 122-C -17 1.8
75o 499 53 26 1 7 50 51 81 2 2 -0.4 .257 .336 .368 -.079 .261 .339 .385 .254 6.1 118-C -16 1.2
60o 479 47 24 1 6 46 47 78 2 2 -0.4 .248 .324 .351 -.131 .252 .327 .367 .244 0.1 113-C -15 0.6
50o 464 42 23 1 5 43 44 77 2 2 -0.4 .241 .316 .338 -.167 .245 .319 .354 .236 -3.9 110-C -14 0.2
40o 453 40 22 1 5 41 42 76 2 2 -0.4 .236 .310 .330 -.193 .240 .313 .345 .231 -6.5 107-C -14 0.0
25o 417 31 19 1 3 35 35 71 2 1 -0.3 .222 .291 .303 -.274 .225 .294 .317 .213 -13.9 99-C -12 -0.8
10o 375 23 16 1 2 28 29 66 1 1 -0.3 .206 .271 .274 -.360 .209 .273 .287 .191 -20.1 90-C -10 -1.4
Weighted Mean 482 45 24 1 5 44 46 80 2 2 -0.4 .241 .316 .339 -.181 .245 .319 .355 .235 -1.2 114-C -15 0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

50%

70%

14%

12%

0.99

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 22) 482 45 24 1 5 44 46 80 2 2 -0.4 .241 .316 .339 -.181 .245 .319 .355 .235 -1.2 114-C -15 0.3
2010 (age 23) 479 47 24 1 6 46 47 78 2 2 -0.3 .246 .324 .354 -.144 .247 .322 .366 .244 0.4 113-C -16 0.5
2011 (age 24) 440 41 21 1 6 42 43 71 2 1 -0.2 .242 .319 .349 -.163 .242 .317 .361 .240 -1.0 104-C -13 0.5
2012 (age 25) 403 36 20 1 6 40 39 65 2 1 -0.1 .241 .318 .357 -.156 .241 .316 .369 .241 -0.3 96-C -13 0.4
2013 (age 26) 407 37 20 1 6 41 40 63 2 1 -0.1 .242 .321 .355 -.152 .243 .319 .367 .242 0.0 97-C -14 0.4
2014 (age 27) 424 36 19 1 6 41 42 68 1 1 0.0 .231 .311 .329 -.210 .232 .310 .340 .229 -2.2 101-C -11 0.1
2015 (age 28) 388 33 17 1 6 37 38 60 1 1 0.0 .235 .313 .344 -.186 .235 .311 .356 .235 -1.2 93-C -11 0.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .218 .293 .291
vs RHP .249 .327 .366
Split -.031 -.034 -.076
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -8.9 -15.0 0.3 $400,000 -8.0 0.6
2010 -4.9 -16.0 0.5 $425,000 -5.5 0.7
2011 -6.3 -13.0 0.5 $500,000 -4.9 1.4
2012 -5.1 -13.0 0.4 $700,000 -3.1 2.6
2013 -4.7 -14.0 0.4 $775,000 -2.4 0.7
2014 -10.4 -11.0 0.1 $400,000 -3.7 0.3
2015 -7.3 -11.0 0.3 $875,000 -1.9 1.9
Peak 2.1 $1,725,000 -1.9 7.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .254 .236 .213 .235
2010 .261 .242 .221 .244
2011 .258 .244 .204 .240
2012 .265 .247 .218 .241
2013 .276 .249 .219 .242
2014 .265 .231 .209 .229
2015 .282 .241 .198 .235


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 12% 0% 50%
2010 32% 18% 54%
2011 36% 27% 52%
2012 55% 43% 45%
2013 57% 49% 42%
2014 68% 57% 37%
2015 69% 61% 35%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

62

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Doug McConathy 1993 62 11 Andy Dziadkowiec 1990 46
2 Bryan Hansen 2006 57 12 Mike LaValliere 1983 45
3 Scott Robinson 2006 55 13 Peter Ciofrone 2006 45
4 Matt Franco 1992 52 14 Mike Musolino 1990 45
5 Andy Barkett 1997 49 15 Daren Epley 1990 44
6 Brian Luderer 2001 48 16 Eric Sandberg 2002 44
7 Brian Schneider 1999 48 17 James Skelton 2008 43
8 George Kottaras 2006 48 18 Elvin Paulino 1990 43
9 Dave Sax 1981 47 19 Gene Gentile 1981 43
10 Jeff Baldwin 1988 47 20 Gregg Zaun 1993 43

Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.