Josh Thole

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	KNG	Rk	110	13	4	0	1	12	7	25	1	1	-0.7	.235	.300	.306	-.616	.165	.200	.214	.118	-32.2	13-1B -3 7-C -3	-3.0
2007	SAV	A	458	46	17	0	0	36	61	57	4	4	0.4	.267	.372	.311	-.348	.214	.299	.256	.199	-33.8	102-1B -9 11-C -3	-4.1
2008	SLU	A+	402	49	25	2	5	56	45	38	2	1	-3.2	.300	.382	.427	-.106	.258	.329	.381	.251	1.6	70-C -9 11-1B -2	-0.3

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 1:22 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	519	60	28	2	8	54	55	83	2	2	-0.5	.267	.348	.385	-.028	.271	.351	.404	.264	12.6	122-C -17	1.8
75^o	499	53	26	1	7	50	51	81	2	2	-0.4	.257	.336	.368	-.079	.261	.339	.385	.254	6.1	118-C -16	1.2
60^o	479	47	24	1	6	46	47	78	2	2	-0.4	.248	.324	.351	-.131	.252	.327	.367	.244	0.1	113-C -15	0.6
50^o	464	42	23	1	5	43	44	77	2	2	-0.4	.241	.316	.338	-.167	.245	.319	.354	.236	-3.9	110-C -14	0.2
40^o	453	40	22	1	5	41	42	76	2	2	-0.4	.236	.310	.330	-.193	.240	.313	.345	.231	-6.5	107-C -14	0.0
25^o	417	31	19	1	3	35	35	71	2	1	-0.3	.222	.291	.303	-.274	.225	.294	.317	.213	-13.9	99-C -12	-0.8
10^o	375	23	16	1	2	28	29	66	1	1	-0.3	.206	.271	.274	-.360	.209	.273	.287	.191	-20.1	90-C -10	-1.4
Weighted Mean	482	45	24	1	5	44	46	80	2	2	-0.4	.241	.316	.339	-.181	.245	.319	.355	.235	-1.2	114-C -15	0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
50%	70%	14%	12%	0.99

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 22)	482	45	24	1	5	44	46	80	2	2	-0.4	.241	.316	.339	-.181	.245	.319	.355	.235	-1.2	114-C -15	0.3
2010 (age 23)	479	47	24	1	6	46	47	78	2	2	-0.3	.246	.324	.354	-.144	.247	.322	.366	.244	0.4	113-C -16	0.5
2011 (age 24)	440	41	21	1	6	42	43	71	2	1	-0.2	.242	.319	.349	-.163	.242	.317	.361	.240	-1.0	104-C -13	0.5
2012 (age 25)	403	36	20	1	6	40	39	65	2	1	-0.1	.241	.318	.357	-.156	.241	.316	.369	.241	-0.3	96-C -13	0.4
2013 (age 26)	407	37	20	1	6	41	40	63	2	1	-0.1	.242	.321	.355	-.152	.243	.319	.367	.242	0.0	97-C -14	0.4
2014 (age 27)	424	36	19	1	6	41	42	68	1	1	0.0	.231	.311	.329	-.210	.232	.310	.340	.229	-2.2	101-C -11	0.1
2015 (age 28)	388	33	17	1	6	37	38	60	1	1	0.0	.235	.313	.344	-.186	.235	.311	.356	.235	-1.2	93-C -11	0.3

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.218	.293	.291
vs RHP	.249	.327	.366
Split	-.031	-.034	-.076
LgAvg	-.035	-.040	-.079

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-8.9	-15.0	0.3	$400,000	-8.0	0.6
2010	-4.9	-16.0	0.5	$425,000	-5.5	0.7
2011	-6.3	-13.0	0.5	$500,000	-4.9	1.4
2012	-5.1	-13.0	0.4	$700,000	-3.1	2.6
2013	-4.7	-14.0	0.4	$775,000	-2.4	0.7
2014	-10.4	-11.0	0.1	$400,000	-3.7	0.3
2015	-7.3	-11.0	0.3	$875,000	-1.9	1.9
Peak			2.1	$1,725,000	-1.9	7.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.254	.236	.213	.235
2010	.261	.242	.221	.244
2011	.258	.244	.204	.240
2012	.265	.247	.218	.241
2013	.276	.249	.219	.242
2014	.265	.231	.209	.229
2015	.282	.241	.198	.235

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	12%	0%	50%
2010	32%	18%	54%
2011	36%	27%	52%
2012	55%	43%	45%
2013	57%	49%	42%
2014	68%	57%	37%
2015	69%	61%	35%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

62

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Doug McConathy	1993	62		11	Andy Dziadkowiec	1990	46
2	Bryan Hansen	2006	57		12	Mike LaValliere	1983	45
3	Scott Robinson	2006	55		13	Peter Ciofrone	2006	45
4	Matt Franco	1992	52		14	Mike Musolino	1990	45
5	Andy Barkett	1997	49		15	Daren Epley	1990	44
6	Brian Luderer	2001	48		16	Eric Sandberg	2002	44
7	Brian Schneider	1999	48		17	James Skelton	2008	43
8	George Kottaras	2006	48		18	Elvin Paulino	1990	43
9	Dave Sax	1981	47		19	Gene Gentile	1981	43
10	Jeff Baldwin	1988	47		20	Gregg Zaun	1993	43

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