Kiel Thibault

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	BUR	A	169	13	6	0	0	19	14	35	3	0	1.0	.218	.310	.259	-.580	.168	.235	.187	.139	-23.0	23-C 1	-1.5
2006	HDS	A+	109	15	11	0	1	18	9	18	0	1	-0.9	.340	.398	.485	-.284	.230	.278	.330	.210	-5.1	24-C -4	-0.6
2007	WIL	A+	369	35	16	2	4	36	25	53	9	2	-2.1	.254	.323	.352	-.468	.190	.238	.263	.170	-37.5	88-C 2	-1.5
2008	NWA	AA	109	7	6	0	0	9	5	23	5	0	0.0	.160	.196	.220	-.795	.118	.148	.167	.041	-21.2	25-C -5	-2.0

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:34 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	263	22	13	1	3	20	17	65	7	1	-0.5	.207	.265	.301	-.351	.204	.263	.311	.205	-10.6	65-C -3	0.0
75^o	247	16	10	0	2	18	14	63	6	1	-0.4	.184	.238	.263	-.463	.182	.237	.271	.176	-16.5	61-C -3	-0.7
60^o	232	13	9	0	2	15	12	61	5	1	-0.4	.168	.218	.234	-.547	.165	.217	.241	.149	-20.0	58-C -2	-1.2
50^o	224	11	8	0	1	14	11	60	5	1	-0.4	.160	.209	.221	-.586	.158	.208	.228	.135	-21.4	56-C -2	-1.4
40^o	212	9	7	0	1	12	10	58	4	1	-0.3	.150	.197	.204	-.633	.149	.196	.211	.112	-22.6	53-C -2	-1.5
25^o	162	5	4	0	0	6	7	49	3	1	-0.2	.127	.168	.164	-.752	.126	.167	.170	.022	-21.8	42-C -2	-1.6
10^o	162	5	4	0	0	6	7	49	3	1	-0.2	.127	.168	.164	-.752	.126	.167	.170	.022	-21.8	42-C -2	-1.6
Weighted Mean	219	10	8	0	1	14	11	59	4	1	-0.4	.158	.207	.218	-.565	.156	.206	.224	.131	-20.6	55-C -1	-1.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
32%	39%	53%	38%	1.42

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 25)	219	10	8	0	1	14	11	59	4	1	-0.4	.158	.207	.218	-.565	.156	.206	.224	.131	-20.6	55-C -1	-1.1
2010 (age 26)	230	12	8	0	2	16	12	59	5	1	-0.2	.159	.211	.231	-.559	.159	.212	.241	.142	-11.9	57-C -2	-0.6
2011 (age 27)	237	14	9	0	2	17	12	60	5	1	-0.1	.169	.221	.247	-.513	.169	.223	.258	.158	-6.5	59-C -1	-0.2
2012 (age 28)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.175	.227	.248
vs RHP	.155	.202	.209
Split	+.020	+.026	+.039
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-18.6	-1.0	-1.1	$400,000	-20.9	0.0
2010	-18.0	-2.0	-0.6	$400,000	-11.9	0.0
2011	-16.2	-1.0	-0.2	$400,000	-6.1	0.0
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.176	.135	.022	.131
2010	.179	.133	.074	.142
2011	.195	.166	.129	.158
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	38%	0%	32%
2010	61%	43%	23%
2011	72%	62%	28%
2012	83%	70%	22%
2013	81%	76%	24%
2014	89%	82%	19%
2015	87%	86%	16%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

72

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Dave Toth	1995	67		11	Tony Gilmore	1994	59
2	Bob Lutticken	1991	66		12	Jeff Horn	1995	59
3	Tom Gregorio	2002	65		13	Brian Valichka	2008	58
4	Tony Arnerich	2005	61		14	Nick Thompson	1999	57
5	Joe Siwa	1992	60		15	Bob Natal	1991	57
6	Mike Higgins	1996	60		16	Matt Ceriani	2002	57
7	Todd Johnson	1996	60		17	Mike Morland	1994	57
8	Matt Pagnozzi	2008	60		18	Kris Gresham	1995	57
9	Ryan Kellner	2003	59		19	Roman Escamilla	1999	57
10	David Benham	2001	59		20	Joe Kmak	1988	56

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