Matt Spring

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	HUD	A-	185	13	8	0	4	15	13	66	0	2	-3.1	.204	.262	.323	-.610	.151	.197	.227	.124	-51.6	40-C -6	-3.3
2006	SWM	A	186	14	11	0	4	13	7	67	3	0	-0.6	.205	.237	.335	-.580	.162	.183	.268	.137	-26.9	29-C -5	-2.4
2007	CGA	A	101	9	4	1	3	18	10	24	0	0	0.0	.209	.287	.374	-.501	.160	.218	.277	.160	-12.0	19-C 0	-0.8
2007	MNT	AA	107	11	4	0	4	11	5	32	0	0	0.0	.165	.202	.330	-.538	.150	.179	.310	.155	-12.5	26-C -3	-1.1
2008	MNT	AA	274	28	16	1	9	30	22	68	0	1	-1.6	.248	.314	.431	-.267	.209	.262	.375	.218	-11.6	55-C -4	-0.7

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:49 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	355	29	18	1	12	42	23	110	0	0	-1.5	.220	.276	.392	-.176	.223	.280	.412	.237	-1.0	85-C -4	1.2
75^o	340	23	16	1	10	38	21	108	0	0	-1.3	.201	.256	.351	-.283	.204	.259	.369	.215	-9.5	82-C -4	0.3
60^o	326	19	14	1	8	34	19	106	0	0	-1.2	.186	.239	.318	-.368	.189	.242	.335	.195	-15.5	79-C -4	-0.4
50^o	323	18	14	1	8	33	19	105	0	0	-1.2	.183	.236	.312	-.385	.186	.239	.328	.191	-16.7	78-C -4	-0.6
40^o	311	16	13	1	7	30	18	104	0	0	-1.1	.172	.224	.289	-.443	.175	.227	.304	.175	-20.3	76-C -4	-1.0
25^o	295	12	11	0	5	26	16	101	0	0	-1.0	.159	.208	.260	-.519	.161	.211	.273	.152	-24.4	72-C -4	-1.5
10^o	245	6	8	0	3	16	12	90	0	0	-0.8	.132	.177	.202	-.670	.134	.179	.212	.081	-28.9	61-C -4	-2.2
Weighted Mean	328	18	14	1	8	33	19	108	0	0	-1.2	.179	.231	.304	-.400	.182	.234	.319	.185	-17.4	79-C -4	-0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
39%	54%	35%	17%	1.08

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 24)	328	18	14	1	8	33	19	108	0	0	-1.2	.179	.231	.304	-.400	.182	.234	.319	.185	-17.4	79-C -4	-0.6
2010 (age 25)	303	16	12	0	8	30	17	98	0	0	-0.8	.174	.227	.302	-.409	.179	.232	.321	.182	-13.2	74-C -5	-0.6
2011 (age 26)	232	11	9	1	5	24	14	74	0	0	-0.5	.168	.223	.293	-.430	.173	.229	.312	.178	-9.1	58-C -5	-0.4
2012 (age 27)	229	12	9	0	6	25	14	72	0	0	-0.3	.178	.233	.313	-.378	.183	.239	.333	.191	-5.2	57-C -5	-0.3
2013 (age 28)	268	14	11	0	7	28	16	84	0	0	-0.3	.174	.227	.306	-.402	.179	.233	.326	.185	-4.7	66-C -5	-0.2
2014 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.196	.251	.331
vs RHP	.175	.225	.292
Split	+.021	+.026	+.039
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-17.7	-4.0	-0.6	$400,000	-17.7	0.0
2010	-17.0	-5.0	-0.6	$400,000	-14.6	0.2
2011	-13.9	-5.0	-0.4	$400,000	-10.1	0.0
2012	-11.3	-5.0	-0.3	$400,000	-6.2	0.0
2013	-14.5	-5.0	-0.2	$400,000	-5.2	0.2
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.215	.191	.152	.185
2010	.225	.188	.150	.182
2011	.223	.185	.102	.178
2012	.220	.192	.156	.191
2013	.216	.176	.154	.185
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	17%	0%	39%
2010	46%	24%	31%
2011	69%	41%	31%
2012	80%	59%	29%
2013	82%	66%	23%
2014	79%	74%	24%
2015	85%	78%	24%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

61

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Gary Tremblay	1987	57		11	David Ross	2001	46
2	Scott Walter	2003	52		12	Jeff Hooper	1989	45
3	Brad Ripplemeyer	1994	51		13	Julian Benavidez	2006	45
4	C.J. Medlin	2006	50		14	John Upshaw	1981	44
5	Douglas Duke	1989	49		15	Dan Conway	2004	43
6	Mando Verdugo	1990	48		16	Peter Kuld	1991	43
7	Russ Jacobson	2002	48		17	Craig Wilson	1992	42
8	Colt Morton	2006	47		18	Jared Price	2006	42
9	Alvin Colina	2006	47		19	Craig Faulkner	1990	42
10	Bryan Baar	1992	46		20	Bobby Hughes	1995	42

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