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Chad Spann
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Third Base
Bats R
Age 24
6' 1"
195 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 WIL 1C 455 55 23 4 13 48 39 106 1 4 1.8 .248 .322 .423 .003 .202 .259 .330 .202 -21.9 71-3B 2 0.8
2005 PME 2A 34 1 2 0 0 1 3 8 1 1 -0.2 .207 .281 .276 -.262 .200 .273 .267 .191 -2.6 0.0
2006 PME 2A 399 53 28 3 10 50 29 85 3 3 3.8 .294 .361 .472 .200 .270 .328 .445 .263 18.6 95-3B 2 3.1
2007 PME 2A 109 13 8 0 4 26 8 32 0 1 -1.4 .250 .303 .458 .016 .224 .273 .408 .232 -3.5 13-1B 0 0.2
2007 PAW 3A 280 22 9 0 4 17 24 77 1 3 0.9 .223 .295 .307 -.212 .209 .277 .296 .197 -13.8 74-3B -2 0.4


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 7:28 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 438 45 30 2 12 59 32 109 4 2 0.1 .260 .319 .432 -.030 .253 .316 .442 .264 7.2 104-3B 3 3.1
75o 416 37 26 1 10 52 29 108 3 2 0.1 .243 .302 .397 -.117 .237 .299 .406 .248 -1.8 99-3B 1 2.1
60o 403 34 24 1 9 48 28 107 3 2 0.1 .235 .293 .379 -.163 .228 .290 .387 .238 -6.1 96-3B 1 1.7
50o 392 30 22 1 8 45 27 106 3 2 0.1 .227 .285 .363 -.202 .221 .282 .371 .230 -9.6 94-3B 0 1.3
40o 386 29 21 1 8 43 26 105 3 2 0.1 .223 .280 .355 -.223 .217 .277 .363 .225 -11.4 92-3B 0 1.1
25o 368 25 18 1 7 38 24 103 3 2 0.1 .212 .268 .332 -.281 .206 .266 .339 .212 -15.9 88-3B -1 0.5
10o 344 20 15 1 5 32 22 100 2 2 0.1 .198 .253 .303 -.353 .192 .251 .309 .194 -20.7 83-3B -2 0.0
Weighted Mean 424 35 24 1 9 50 29 114 3 2 0.1 .229 .287 .368 -.191 .223 .284 .376 .232 -9.6 101-3B 1 1.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

35%

60%

17%

12%

0.75

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 24) 424 35 24 1 9 50 29 114 3 2 0.1 .229 .287 .368 -.191 .223 .284 .376 .232 -9.6 101-3B 1 1.9
2009 (age 25) 406 33 23 1 9 49 28 107 3 2 0.1 .232 .291 .371 -.179 .229 .292 .386 .234 -5.9 97-3B -2 1.2
2010 (age 26) 364 28 19 1 7 41 27 99 2 2 0.1 .231 .294 .362 -.186 .228 .295 .377 .233 -4.8 87-3B -1 1.0
2011 (age 27) 403 36 23 1 10 50 30 105 3 2 0.0 .242 .303 .393 -.122 .239 .304 .409 .247 -0.8 96-3B -2 0.8
2012 (age 28)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 29)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 30)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .244 .306 .397
vs RHP .225 .280 .352
Split +.020 +.026 +.045
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.1 1.7 1.9 $2,100,000 -5.6 0.2
2009 0.2 1.1 1.2 $1,400,000 -4.3 1.0
2010 0.1 0.8 1.0 $1,150,000 -3.2 0.4
2011 0.3 0.5 0.8 $1,025,000 -0.3 1.0
2012 0.3 0.4 0.7 $1,050,000 0.3 1.9
2013 0.0 0.5 0.5 $750,000 -2.2 0.2
2014 0.0 0.4 0.4 $750,000 -1.5 0.0
Peak 6.1 $4,400,000 0.3 4.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .248 .230 .212 .232
2009 .248 .233 .211 .234
2010 .247 .229 .206 .233
2011 .260 .243 .215 .247
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 12% 0% 35%
2009 29% 19% 36%
2010 52% 32% 36%
2011 66% 55% 38%
2012 76% 68% 31%
2013 80% 76% 24%
2014 91% 81% 21%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

64

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Jeff Baker 1992 40 11 Steve Goodell 2003 33
2 Shawn Gallagher 1979 36 12 Freddy Garcia 1971 33
3 Kevin Eberwein 1981 36 13 Nick Green 1982 33
4 Adell Davenport 1970 36 14 Mike Boyzuick 1960 33
5 Garret Beard 1973 35 15 Mike Bell 2007 32
6 Matt Craig 1992 35 16 Mike Eylward 1975 32
7 Ryan Gripp 1975 34 17 Henry Blanco 1969 32
8 Tim Gillis 1975 34 18 Joe Dillon 2000 31
9 Jim Crowley 1957 34 19 Mike Fernandez 1979 30
10 Ryan Balfe 1998 33 20 Clay Bellinger 2005 30

Player Comments

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2007

After an impressive pro debut in 2003 (.312/.379/.413 as a 19 year old in the Sally League), Spann couldn`t do anything like it in two years of High-A ball, though a lingering knee injury certainly played a part. A Portland reunion with hitting coach Russ Morman, who tutored him at Augusta in 2003, helped Spann regain his stroke and earn Eastern League All-Star honors. As his K/BB ratio shows, his approach at the plate still needs refinement, but he`s back on the right path.

2006

A terrific 2003 season propelled him up the system`s prospect lists, but he has not returned to that level since. He`s still young and showed some power last season, exemplified by his two-out, walk-off grand slam in Portland`s 5-3 win over Trenton in the first game of the Eastern League playoffs. The Red Sox might move Pinckney past Spann on the third base depth chart this season.

2005

After an impressive 2003 in low-A ball, Spann was hitting well in Sarasota before badly injuring his knee, knocking him out for two months, an injury that bothered him even when he returned to the field. There are some concerns about him hitting too many balls on the ground, a problem that could worsen if his knee injury costs him some speed in the long run. He's still young, but how he plays when healthy in 2005 will do a lot to determining his future with the club.


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