Joe Savery

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 6:22 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	6	7	0	19	19	106.0	118	50	74	11	50%	.316	14	1.58	5.11	0	5.35	9.9	3.7	5.4	0.9	3.8	1.2	1.3
75^o	5	7	0	19	19	98.0	117	51	65	12	49%	.326	8	1.71	5.87	0	6.12	10.6	4.1	5.2	1.1	-5.2	0.2	0.3
60^o	4	7	0	18	18	93.0	116	51	59	13	49%	.332	4	1.79	6.39	0	6.64	11.1	4.3	5.0	1.2	-10.5	-0.3	-0.3
50^o	4	7	0	18	18	89.7	115	51	56	14	49%	.336	2	1.85	6.73	0	6.97	11.4	4.5	4.8	1.3	-13.6	-0.6	-0.6
40^o	4	7	0	23	16	85.0	114	51	51	14	48%	.342	-5	1.94	7.25	0	7.50	11.9	4.7	4.6	1.5	-18.0	-1.2	-1.1
25^o	3	7	0	23	15	79.7	112	50	45	15	48%	.348	-10	2.03	7.84	0	8.08	12.5	5.0	4.4	1.6	-22.2	-1.6	-1.6
10^o	3	6	0	23	13	71.7	108	49	38	15	48%	.357	-17	2.18	8.79	0	9.01	13.4	5.4	4.1	1.9	-27.8	-2.2	-2.3
Weighted Mean	4	8	0	19	19	97.0	124	54	61	14	49%	.335	3	1.84	6.66	0	6.91	11.3	4.4	4.9	1.3	-12.7	-0.6	-0.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
33%	71%	6%	9%	1.13

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 23)	4	8	0	19	19	97.0	124	54	61	14	49%	.335	3	1.84	6.66	0	6.91	11.3	4.4	4.9	1.3	-12.7	-0.6	-0.8
2010 (age 24)	4	6	0	27	13	82.7	102	43	55	12	48%	.331	-2	1.75	6.14	0	6.35	11.0	4.1	5.1	1.2	-5.4	-0.1	-0.1
2011 (age 25)	3	4	0	25	9	62.7	80	36	40	9	47%	.338	-6	1.85	6.45	0	6.64	11.4	4.5	5.0	1.3	-6.5	-0.4	-0.3
2012 (age 26)	3	4	0	25	7	59.7	74	29	39	7	49%	.333	-3	1.72	5.93	0	6.16	11.0	3.9	5.0	1.1	-2.7	-0.1	0.0
2013 (age 27)	3	3	0	23	6	52.7	64	26	37	7	48%	.333	-1	1.71	5.88	0	6.10	10.8	3.9	5.4	1.2	-1.9	0.0	0.1
2014 (age 28)	2	3	0	20	4	39.7	50	15	28	6	47%	.338	0	1.64	6.03	0	6.23	11.2	3.0	5.4	1.3	-1.8	-0.1	0.0
2015 (age 29)	1	2	0	15	3	29.0	37	12	21	4	48%	.347	1	1.68	5.99	0	6.19	11.4	3.2	5.7	1.2	-1.4	-0.1	0.0

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.277	.375	.430
vs RHB	.298	.398	.488
Split	-.021	-.023	-.058
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	-0.8	$400,000	-14.2	0.3
2010	0.0	$400,000	-6.5	2.2
2011	-0.3	$400,000	-7.5	1.0
2012	0.0	$400,000	-3.5	1.1
2013	0.1	$450,000	-2.4	1.0
2014	0.0	$425,000	-2.2	1.1
2015	0.0	$525,000	-1.8	0.8
Peak	0.1	0.0	0.0	7.1

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	6.12	6.97	8.08	6.91
2010	5.51	6.33	8.26	6.35
2011	5.60	6.95	8.65	6.64
2012	5.12	6.24	8.40	6.16
2013	5.23	6.34	8.24	6.10
2014	5.80	7.16	8.84	6.23
2015	5.53	7.07	8.76	6.19

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	9%	0%	33%
2010	30%	11%	41%
2011	36%	13%	33%
2012	50%	28%	39%
2013	63%	37%	33%
2014	79%	53%	24%
2015	79%	57%	21%

64

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Scott Christman	1995	60		11	Justin Thomas	2007	48
2	Terry Mulholland	1986	60		12	Ray Liotta	2006	48
3	Chris Hancock	1993	57		13	Tom Fischer	1990	47
4	Justin Jones	2008	54		14	Mike Milchin	1991	47
5	Bob Fallon	1983	54		15	Justin Thompson	1996	47
6	Heath Murray	1996	53		16	Matt Smith	2003	47
7	Mike Matthews	1997	52		17	Sherman Corbett	1986	47
8	Dave Wainhouse	1991	50		18	Scott Downs	1999	47
9	Brent Hoard	2000	49		19	Ed Vosberg	1985	46
10	Kris Johnson	2008	49		20	Kevin Wickander	1988	46

Player Comments

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2008

The Phillies' first-round pick in 2007, Savery was a two-way star at Rice who played first base and hit cleanup when not pitching, but as a left-handed power arm, his professional future was always on the mound. Considered a sure-fire top ten pick entering the spring, Savery slipped to 19th because of some shoulder soreness, but he was impressive in his pro debut, with all three of his pitches (fastball, slider, changeup) grading out as average to plus. The Phillies were impressed enough to send him to the Arizona Fall League with just 26 innings of pro experience, which suggests that his timetable could be accelerated.

Historical Stats