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He's probably very handsome. Julian Sampson
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 20
6' 5"
210 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2007 PHL Rk 0 0 0 1 0 2.0 0 0 1 0 100% .000 -8 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.1
2008 LWD A 11 4 0 25 25 135.0 152 52 69 5 54% .320 -11 1.51 4.33 -6 7.54 12.9 5.1 1.5 1.1 -25.7 0.0 -1.3


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/10/09 6:22 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 4 8 0 19 19 99.7 122 52 39 13 50% .306 -5 1.74 6.71 -1 7.08 10.9 4.1 3.0 1.2 -16.4 -0.9 -0.8
75o 4 8 0 19 19 94.3 125 53 35 15 50% .319 -10 1.88 7.35 0 7.70 11.8 4.4 2.8 1.4 -22.3 -1.5 -1.5
60o 3 8 0 19 19 90.0 126 54 32 16 50% .329 -13 2.00 7.91 0 8.23 12.5 4.8 2.7 1.5 -26.7 -1.9 -2.0
50o 3 8 0 19 19 87.0 127 55 29 16 50% .337 -16 2.09 8.30 0 8.59 13.0 5.0 2.6 1.6 -29.5 -2.2 -2.3
40o 3 8 0 18 18 85.0 128 55 28 17 50% .342 -18 2.15 8.57 0 8.85 13.4 5.1 2.6 1.7 -31.4 -2.4 -2.6
25o 2 8 0 18 18 79.7 129 57 24 18 50% .356 -23 2.33 9.35 0 9.56 14.4 5.6 2.4 2.0 -35.8 -2.9 -3.1
10o 2 7 0 22 15 67.3 133 59 16 20 49% .392 -40 2.85 11.14 0 11.08 17.6 6.9 1.8 2.7 -42.3 -3.7 -3.9
Weighted Mean 3 9 0 20 20 96.0 138 60 33 18 50% .334 -15 2.06 8.16 -1 8.46 12.8 4.9 2.7 1.6 -27.6 -2.3 -2.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

5%

33%

21%

11%

1.21

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2009 (age 20) 3 9 0 20 20 96.0 138 60 33 18 50% .334 -15 2.06 8.16 -1 8.46 12.8 4.9 2.7 1.6 -27.6 -2.3 -2.4
2010 (age 21) 4 7 0 27 16 92.3 127 51 39 15 50% .332 -14 1.92 7.42 0 7.70 12.2 4.3 3.3 1.5 -17.3 -1.5 -1.3
2011 (age 22) 3 6 0 27 12 78.7 105 40 33 12 48% .325 -14 1.84 6.95 0 7.22 11.8 4.0 3.2 1.3 -10.0 -0.9 -0.7
2012 (age 23) 3 5 0 25 10 70.3 91 36 32 9 50% .328 -11 1.81 6.61 0 6.92 11.5 4.0 3.5 1.1 -6.8 -0.6 -0.4
2013 (age 24) 3 5 0 27 9 70.7 91 33 39 9 50% .333 -5 1.74 6.19 0 6.43 11.4 3.6 4.3 1.2 -3.9 -0.3 -0.1
2014 (age 25) 2 3 0 23 5 50.0 61 26 30 6 50% .326 -5 1.74 6.05 0 6.30 10.9 4.1 4.7 1.1 -2.4 -0.2 0.0
2015 (age 26) 1 2 0 13 3 28.0 36 12 17 4 50% .333 -3 1.70 6.07 0 6.27 11.4 3.4 4.8 1.3 -1.7 -0.1 0.0

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .317 .436 .508
vs RHB .308 .398 .460
Split +.008 +.038 +.048
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2009 -2.4 $400,000 -29.6 0.1
2010 -1.3 $400,000 -18.8 0.5
2011 -0.7 $400,000 -11.0 0.4
2012 -0.4 $400,000 -7.6 0.3
2013 0.0 $400,000 -4.5 0.5
2014 0.0 $400,000 -2.9 1.0
2015 0.0 $475,000 -2.0 0.5
Peak 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 7.70 8.59 9.56 8.46
2010 6.70 8.11 9.86 7.70
2011 6.41 7.10 8.85 7.22
2012 6.01 7.03 8.66 6.92
2013 5.46 6.57 7.71 6.43
2014 5.48 6.73 7.71 6.30
2015 4.63 6.88 9.15 6.27


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 11% 0% 5%
2010 23% 8% 22%
2011 43% 28% 21%
2012 52% 36% 22%
2013 52% 42% 28%
2014 65% 48% 24%
2015 79% 57% 21%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

61

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 David Weathers 1990 64 11 Randy Messenger 2002 47
2 Todd Provence 1986 56 12 Jared Lansford 2007 47
3 Taylor Buchholz 2002 55 13 Trad Sobik 1996 46
4 Brian West 2001 52 14 Brian Falkenborg 1998 45
5 Mitchell Johnson 1983 51 15 Nate Cornejo 2000 44
6 Ronald Belizario 2003 50 16 Tyson Godfrey 1992 44
7 Shane Arthurs 2000 49 17 Vincent Mazzaro 2007 44
8 Rich Buonantony 1983 49 18 Michael Olson 1982 44
9 Jim Hendrix 1987 48 19 Dennis Burlingame 1989 43
10 John Dopson 1983 48 20 Nate Minchey 1990 43

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