Biographical

Portrait of Greg Reynolds

Greg Reynolds PReds

Reds Player Cards | Reds Team Audit | Reds Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 28)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
154.7 4.62 1.32 86 8 10 0 -0.2
Birth Date7-3-1985
Height6' 7"
Weight225 lbs
Age29 years, 3 months, 18 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2010
-0.32011
2012
-0.32013
-0.22014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2008 COL 22 14 13 62.0 61.0 1.0 2 8 0 0 4 0 294 83 58 56 14 147 26 23 4 22 8.13 6.78 7.67 -7.1 -0.8
2011 COL 25 13 3 32.0 16.0 16.0 3 0 0 0 1 0 144 40 22 22 6 69 10 8 1 18 6.19 5.34 6.71 -2.8 -0.3
2013 CIN 27 6 5 29.3 27.7 1.7 1 3 0 0 2 0 133 38 19 18 5 62 6 5 4 13 5.52 5.37 6.17 -2.5 -0.3
Career3321123.3104.718.7611007057116199962527842369537.016.077.07-12.5-1.4

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2006 MOD A+ 11 11 48.1 4.25 84 .289 .281 .355 .433 .289 .358 65 10.3 1.0 10.3 1.0
2007 TUL AA 8 8 50.7 4.03 115 .173 .259 .335 .391 .254 .211 103 7.5 0.8 7.1 0.7
2008 COL MLB 14 13 62.0 7.67 46 .311 .255 .322 .410 .260 .303 107 -7.0 -0.7 -7.1 -0.8
2008 CSP AAA 13 13 63.3 5.23 116 .261 .275 .346 .436 .258 .364 124 14.8 1.4 14.7 1.4
2009 CSP AAA 1 1 4.3 5.91 96 .340 .286 .350 .442 .278 .333 121 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0
2010 MOD A+ 2 2 11.0 4.84 101 .272 .262 .343 .408 .258 .279 105 1.5 0.2 1.5 0.2
2010 TUL AA 17 17 89.7 5.65 75 .278 .260 .327 .386 .257 .306 101 -0.8 -0.1 1.3 0.2
2010 SUR Wnt 7 7 24.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .375 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2011 COL MLB 13 3 32.0 6.71 56 .287 .247 .310 .375 .254 .312 112 -3.2 -0.3 -2.8 -0.3
2011 CSP AAA 19 19 109.7 5.44 117 .275 .290 .356 .453 .267 .373 125 26.1 2.5 26.5 2.5
2012 ROU AAA 27 27 163.0 6.24 69 .296 .279 .343 .434 .270 .322 96 -5.7 -0.6 -5.7 -0.6
2013 CIN MLB 6 5 29.3 6.17 60 .309 .257 .305 .408 .255 .314 109 -3.1 -0.3 -2.5 -0.3
2013 LOU AAA 23 21 156.3 4.13 110 .208 .252 .324 .381 .251 .273 101 15.2 1.5 17.4 2.1

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2006 MOD A+ 2 1 0 11 11 48.1 51 14 29 1 61% .358 9.5 2.6 0.2 5.4 1.35 3.37 10.3 1.0
2007 TUL AA 4 1 0 8 8 50.7 32 9 35 2 53% .211 5.7 1.6 0.4 6.2 0.81 1.42 7.1 0.7
2008 COL MLB 2 8 0 14 13 62.0 83 26 22 14 46% .303 12.0 3.8 2.0 3.2 1.76 8.13 -7.1 -0.8
2008 CSP AAA 1 3 0 13 13 63.3 84 22 37 4 53% .364 11.9 3.1 0.6 5.3 1.67 4.27 14.7 1.4
2009 CSP AAA 0 0 0 1 1 4.3 6 3 3 0 39% .333 12.6 6.3 0.0 6.3 2.09 10.47 0.5 0.0
2010 SUR Wnt 1 5 0 7 7 24.0 33 7 19 3 0% .375 12.4 2.6 1.1 7.1 1.67 4.12 0.0 0.0
2010 MOD A+ 1 0 0 2 2 11.0 13 2 6 1 73% .279 10.6 1.6 0.8 4.9 1.36 0.82 1.5 0.2
2010 TUL AA 7 6 0 17 17 89.7 105 15 45 10 44% .306 10.5 1.5 1.0 4.5 1.34 5.22 1.3 0.2
2011 COL MLB 3 0 0 13 3 32.0 40 10 18 6 42% .312 11.2 2.8 1.7 5.1 1.56 6.19 -2.8 -0.3
2011 CSP AAA 6 7 0 19 19 109.7 160 32 65 10 47% .373 13.1 2.6 0.8 5.3 1.75 6.81 26.5 2.5
2012 ROU AAA 11 9 0 27 27 163.0 208 46 69 22 50% .322 11.5 2.5 1.2 3.8 1.56 5.30 -5.7 -0.6
2013 LOU AAA 12 3 0 23 21 156.3 139 26 97 6 55% .273 8.0 1.5 0.3 5.6 1.06 2.42 17.4 2.1
2013 CIN MLB 1 3 0 6 5 29.3 38 6 13 5 46% .314 11.7 1.8 1.5 4.0 1.50 5.52 -2.5 -0.3

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 916 0.5251 0.4551 0.8870 0.6549 0.2322 0.9365 0.7327 0.1130
2011 513 0.4737 0.4570 0.8974 0.6420 0.2889 0.9423 0.8077 0.0983
2013 468 0.4957 0.4625 0.8750 0.6466 0.2797 0.9400 0.7273 0.1250
Career18970.50390.45740.88690.64940.25930.93890.75160.112

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2010-03-26 2010-06-14 60-DL 80 63 Right Elbow Recovery From Bone Chip Batted Ball -
2010-03-01 2010-03-26 Camp 25 0 Right Elbow Bone Chips Batted Ball -
2009-10-28 2009-10-28 Off 0 0 Right Shoulder Surgery Scar Tissue and Inflamed Scapula Bursa - Snapping Scapula 2009-10-28
2009-09-01 2009-10-13 60-DL 42 31 Right Shoulder Impingement -
2008-07-23 2008-08-17 Minors 25 0 Right Shoulder Impingement -
2007-06-20 2007-09-08 Minors 80 0 Right Shoulder Surgery Frayed Rotator Cuff 2007-08-26

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2010 COL $403,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
1 yrPrevious$403,000
1 yrTotal$403,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
1 y 111 dCAA (Brodie Van Wagenen)1 year (2013)

Details
  • 1 year (2013). Signed by Cincinnati as a free agent 12/18/12 (minor-league contract). Released, re-signed 6/16/13 (minor-league contract). Contract selected by Cincinnati 7/23/13. DFA by Cincinnati 7/28/13. Sent outright to Triple-A 7/31/13. Contract selected by Cincinnati 8/25/13. Elected free agency 10/30/13.
  • 1 year (2012). Acquired by Colorado in trade from Texas 1/5/12.
  • 1 year (2011). Re-signed by Colorado 2/11. Sent outright to Triple-A by Colorado 10/5/11.
  • 1 year (2010). Re-signed by Colorado 3/5/10.
  • 1 year/$0.402M (2009). Re-signed by Colorado 3/4/09 ($114,795 in minors).
  • 1 year (2008). Contract purchased by Colorado 5/11/08.
  • Drafted by Colorado 2006 (1-2) (Stanford). $3.25M signing bonus.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 10.4 9.8 0 29 29 172.9 163 34 96 20 .276 1.14 3.67 3.99 17.6 1.8
80o 9.7 9.9 0 28 28 166.5 165 35 92 20 .286 1.20 4.00 4.34 9.9 1.0
70o 9.2 10 0 27 27 162.0 166 35 90 20 .294 1.24 4.23 4.6 4.8 0.5
60o 8.8 10.1 0 27 27 158.2 167 35 88 20 .301 1.28 4.44 4.82 0.7 0.1
50o 8.4 10.2 0 26 26 154.6 168 35 86 21 .307 1.32 4.63 5.03 -2.9 -0.3
40o 8 10.2 0 25 25 151.1 169 36 84 21 .313 1.36 4.83 5.25 -6.4 -0.7
30o 7.6 10.3 0 25 25 147.4 170 36 82 21 .320 1.40 5.04 5.47 -9.6 -1.0
20o 7.2 10.3 0 24 24 143.1 171 36 80 21 .327 1.45 5.28 5.74 -13.2 -1.3
10o 6.5 10.4 0 23 23 137.3 172 36 77 21 .338 1.52 5.63 6.12 -17.7 -1.8
Weighted Mean8.410.102626154.6168358620.3061.314.625.02-2.7-0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
15% 21% 4% 17% 25%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
2015295501414848917491148.3061.274.314.699.61.85.31.20.2
201630440111167711338948.2991.254.384.769.51.75.11.20.1
201731440121271761442948.3071.274.414.799.71.85.31.10.1
2018324401212707514401048.3031.274.394.779.61.85.11.30.1
201933440111163681337948.3051.284.404.799.71.85.31.30.1
202034440101061651234848.3051.274.414.809.61.85.01.20.0
202135340101057611133848.3061.274.434.829.71.75.21.30.0
2022363309954581131748.3061.294.444.839.71.85.21.20.0
2023373309951551028748.3061.284.514.909.81.85.01.2-0.0

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
out of baseball1.1out of baseballout of baseballout of baseballout of baseball1.1

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 82)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 87 Andrew Baldwin 2011 0.00 DNP
2 87 David Pauley 2011 3.28
3 87 Kevin Pucetas 2013 0.00 DNP
4 86 Will Savage 2013 0.00 DNP
5 86 Timothy Bascom 2013 0.00 DNP
6 85 Chris Seddon 2012 3.93
7 85 Mike Parisi 2011 0.00 DNP
8 85 Jeff Mandel 2013 0.00 DNP
9 85 Eddie Bonine 2009 4.98
10 84 Scott Carroll 2013 0.00 DNP
11 84 Brandon Dickson 2013 0.00 DNP
12 84 Bob Keppel 2010 0.00 DNP
13 84 Brad Knox 2010 0.00 DNP
14 84 Blake Johnson 2013 0.00 DNP
15 84 Enrique Gonzalez 2011 10.00
16 84 Thad Weber 2013 3.00
17 84 Brandon Hynick 2013 0.00 DNP
18 84 Matt Wright 2010 0.00 DNP
19 84 Elizardo Ramirez 2011 0.00 DNP
20 83 Jack Cassel 2009 0.00 DNP
21 83 Andrew Kown 2011 0.00 DNP
22 83 J.D. Durbin 2010 0.00 DNP
23 83 Dave McKae 2010 0.00 DNP
24 83 Anthony Lerew 2011 0.00 DNP
25 83 Miguel Gonzalez 2012 3.25
26 83 Sergio Perez 2013 0.00 DNP
27 83 Frank Herrmann 2012 2.33
28 83 Chad Beck 2013 0.00 DNP
29 83 Mario Santiago 2013 0.00 DNP
30 82 Eric Hacker 2011 1.69
31 82 Jeff Manship 2013 7.34
32 82 Kevin Mulvey 2013 0.00 DNP
33 82 Brad Mills 2013 0.00 DNP
34 82 Cesar Ramos 2012 2.10
35 82 Josh Banks 2011 0.00 DNP
36 82 Josh Muecke 2010 0.00 DNP
37 82 Brooks Brown 2013 0.00 DNP
38 82 Rick VandenHurk 2013 0.00 DNP
39 82 Randy Boone 2013 0.00 DNP
40 82 Tom Cochran 2011 0.00 DNP
41 82 Steven Shell 2011 0.00 DNP
42 82 J.R. Mathes 2010 0.00 DNP
43 82 Yoslan Herrera 2009 0.00 DNP
44 82 Tim Stauffer 2010 1.96
45 82 Philip Humber 2011 3.92
46 82 Zach Jackson 2011 0.00 DNP
47 82 Robert Ray 2012 0.00 DNP
48 82 J.D. Martin 2011 0.00 DNP
49 82 Patrick Stanley 2011 0.00 DNP
50 81 Graham Taylor 2012 0.00 DNP
51 81 Chase Wright 2011 0.00 DNP
52 81 Clayton Mortensen 2013 5.64
53 81 Nic Ungs 2008 0.00 DNP
54 81 Cha Seung Baek 2008 4.91
55 81 Lance Broadway 2012 0.00 DNP
56 81 Chris Narveson 2010 5.15
57 81 Graham Godfrey 2013 0.00 DNP
58 81 Chris Begg 2008 0.00 DNP
59 81 Justin Germano 2011 5.68
60 81 Shane Komine 2009 0.00 DNP
61 81 Mike Ekstrom 2012 6.32
62 81 Steven Wright 2013 5.40
63 80 Doug Mathis 2011 0.00 DNP
64 80 Rowdy Hardy 2011 0.00 DNP
65 80 John Koronka 2009 13.50
66 80 Jesus A. Castillo 2012 0.00 DNP
67 80 Jeremy Johnson 2011 0.00 DNP
68 80 Matt Guerrier 2007 2.25
69 80 Daniel Davidson 2009 5.40
70 80 Chad Reineke 2010 0.00 DNP
71 80 Fabio Castro 2013 0.00 DNP
72 80 Dave Gassner 2007 0.00 DNP
73 80 Tom Wilhelmsen 2012 2.72
74 80 Justin Hampson 2008 3.23
75 80 Craig Stammen 2012 2.75
76 80 Chris Cody 2012 0.00 DNP
77 80 Mike Thompson 2009 0.00 DNP
78 80 Zack Segovia 2011 0.00 DNP
79 80 Heath Phillips 2010 0.00 DNP
80 80 Sam LeCure 2012 3.45
81 80 Erik Arnesen 2012 0.00 DNP
82 79 Jason Hirsh 2010 0.00 DNP
83 79 Troy Cate 2009 0.00 DNP
84 79 Geno Espineli 2011 0.00 DNP
85 79 Jeremy Guthrie 2007 4.00
86 79 Marco Estrada 2012 4.03
87 79 Eddie Gamboa 2013 0.00 DNP
88 79 Richie Gardner 2010 0.00 DNP
89 79 Pat Misch 2010 4.78
90 79 Jorge De Paula 2007 0.00 DNP
91 79 Billy Buckner 2012 0.00 DNP
92 79 Jeff Marquez 2013 0.00 DNP
93 79 Heath Totten 2007 0.00 DNP
94 79 Austin Bibens-Dirkx 2013 0.00 DNP
95 79 Ryan Sadowski 2011 0.00 DNP
96 79 Josh Butler 2013 0.00 DNP
97 79 Steve Watkins 2007 0.00 DNP
98 79 Steven Kelly 2008 0.00 DNP
99 79 Michael Madsen 2011 0.00 DNP
100 79 Mike Gosling 2009 5.40

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .253 .304 .463 .259
11 vs R (Multi) .364 .414 .572 .334
18 Split (Multi) -.112 -.109 -.109 -.075
19 LgAvg (Multi) .010 .024 .026 .019
30 vs L (2013) .222 .279 .389 .233
31 vs R (2013) .391 .435 .625 .359
38 Split (2013) -.168 -.156 -.236 -.127
39 LgAvg (2013) .010 .022 .028 .019

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2012 Greg Reynolds, taken one pick ahead of Evan Longoria in the 2006 draft, owns a career minor-league K/9 of 5.2 in 377 1/3 innings. Here's hoping he invested his signing bonus wisely.
2011 The second overall pick in 2006, Greg Reynolds returned from yet another shoulder surgery in 2010 only to stall at Double-A, where he showed excellent control but struck out batters at a lower rate than ever before. Reynolds was drafted out of college as a low-risk, low-reward, mid-rotation solution, but it now looks like he’ll fail even to turn into that.
2010 Famously taken as the second overall pick in 2006—just ahead of Evan Longoria—the oft-injured Reynolds tossed just four Triple-A innings before a shoulder impingement and eventual surgery shut him down for the year. He’s expected to be healthy for spring training, though he’s not expected to be particularly good; a complete inability to get professional hitters to swing and miss means he really doesn’t have a big-league future.
2009 You know, 26 walks in 62 innings for a rookie isn't the worst thing in the world, but it looks pathetic when you realize that Reynolds struck out even fewer batters. His minor league strikeout rates are just as troubling. Reynolds has suffered through constant shoulder problems since being drafted, and at this point, reminding Colorado fans that this was the guy the Rockies selected with the second overall pick in the 2006 draft instead of Evan Longoria amounts to nothing more than a cruel joke. Even if you had, say, a power sinker that's a combination of Brandon Webb's and Superman's, it is still nearly impossible to get by in the majors while striking out so few batters—and Reynolds doesn't even throw that sinker.
2008 The second overall pick in 2006, Reynolds got off to a fantastic start at Double-A last year before his shoulder starting bothering him. It eventually required arthroscopic surgery, but according to everyone involved, it wasn't as serious as it sounds, and Reynolds is expected to make a full recovery for 2008. After a year in which guys such as Jimenez and Morales stepped forward as future rotation stalwarts, Reynolds is kind of the organization's forgotten man. Don't make that mistake. If he really is healthy, he's a groundball machine who throws a low- to mid-90s fastball with both sink and a downward plane because of his height. In a perfect world, he could become something like Chien-Ming Wang.
2007 Greg Reynolds is baseball`s answer to Sam Bowie. The second selection in the 2006 draft, he was a safe choice who stands to settle in quickly as a back-of-the-rotation starter, but has no chance at stardom. For a pick that high in a seemingly loaded draft, the Rockies had to do better.

BP Articles

Greg Reynolds is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2009-12-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Kevin, would you trade the Rockies top 11 prospects for Longoria and Heyward? I ask because the Rox get a lot of credit for developing their farm system, but they obviously missed big on these two (Greg Reynolds/Casey Weathers). What skill is better - consistent approach or hitting home runs in the draft/LA? Thanks.
(Dan from Denver)
I think the Rockies generally deserve a lot of credit for their drafting and player development, but that does not take away from the massive mistake they took in taking Reynolds, nor does it excuse some of the ridiculous reasons for the selection. I at least think they've gotten past it. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-12-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)I don't mean this to sound like 20/20 hindsight, but were there teams other than the Royals who saw Hosmer as a top 5 talent? The availability of Smoak and Alonso at the same position, with similarly high ceilings and both obviously that much closer to the majors makes it seem a very odd pick.
(Rob from Alaska)
Yes. For example, we spoke of the Greg Reynolds selection by Colorado earlier. I don't know ANYONE other than Colorado who thought he deserved to go that high, while everyone assumed Hosmer would. Nobody criticized the pick at the time, it just hasn't worked out yet. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-09-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)For overall career value, this point on, who would you rather have Edinson Volquez or a pitching prospect ranked around 80th on Goldstein's top 100 list next year? Neither will likely pitch next year, both have some risk of development, both have some upside. I guess the question boils down to how much you believe that Edinson can regain his status from the injury. I am in a strat league, I could either keep Volquez or cut him and draft someone in the 80th range on Goldstein's next list.
(LindInMoskva from DC)
Volquez will miss 2010, but most pitchers come back from TJ to previous level. That's a major league pitcher with some upside. He'll be 28. Looking back to Goldstein's 2008 list (not 2009), guys at that level are Deolis Guerra, Radhames Liz, Max Scherzer, Jair Jurrjens, Aaron Poreda, and Greg Reynolds. Even with a year of development, we're looking at two guys who have established themselves at the MLB level, plus Poreda who's an upside guy. I'd probably take Poreda and Jurrjens over Volquez right now, Scherzer's a toss up, but then you have to figure out the "bust risk." Which of those guys would I have picked LAST year and am I confident that I can pick correctly? Kevin's an expert and had Poreda under Liz ... I think that bust risk is huge, so I'd almost always go with the guy I know can pitch. (Will Carroll)
2008-01-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)When evaluating players for future growth, the first thing I look at is "upside" in your Pecota worksheets. Is there a better way to use your data when all you care about is building for the future?
(LindInMoskva from DC)
Upside is still going to be the best single metric to look at, and I hope that it's going to be more useful than ever with some of the improvements we've made to the minor league projections this year. Particularly, Clay has completely redone his translations, and as I teased a couple of years ago, we're now considering a player's draft slot in making a projection. PECOTA still has a few house favorites -- Greg Reynolds, apparently, is the sleeper prospect of the year if he can stay healthy -- but for the most part the degree of agreement between the Upside rankings and Kevin's Top 100 is going to be pretty eerie. (Nate Silver)


BP Roundtables

DateRoundtable NameComment
2008-10-02 11:00:00Thursday Playoff GamesQuick cross-promotion:

Here's my interview with Longoria just after he signed.

My favorite quote:

"I thought the Rockies were going to take me," recalled Longoria.

Don't forget Rockie fans, with the second overall pick in 2006, the Rockies, for some reason known only to them, selected Greg Reynolds. (Kevin Goldstein)
 

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2014, Greg Reynolds threw 2,096 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2008 and 2013, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, Spring Training and Fall/Winter Ball. In 2013, he relied primarily on his Sinker (90mph) and Cutter (87mph), also mixing in a Curve (78mph), Change (82mph) and Fourseam Fastball (90mph).