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He's probably very handsome. Francisco Pena
New York Mets [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 18
6' 2"
230 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 SAV 1B 399 26 12 0 5 30 24 76 1 1 -7.3 .210 .263 .283 -.288 .171 .213 .227 .133 -52.3 81-C -13 -2.1


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 3:12 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 504 33 24 1 6 43 26 89 2 2 -1.9 .229 .272 .319 -.315 .233 .275 .332 .204 -13.6 119-C -7 1.0
75o 468 23 17 1 4 36 22 90 2 2 -1.6 .202 .242 .273 -.446 .205 .245 .284 .170 -27.3 111-C -7 -0.3
60o 456 21 15 0 4 33 20 91 2 2 -1.5 .194 .233 .259 -.486 .196 .236 .269 .158 -31.0 108-C -6 -0.7
50o 431 17 12 0 3 29 18 90 2 1 -1.3 .180 .218 .235 -.553 .182 .220 .245 .134 -36.3 102-C -6 -1.2
40o 404 13 9 0 3 24 16 89 2 1 -1.2 .167 .204 .215 -.611 .170 .207 .223 .109 -39.6 96-C -5 -1.6
25o 383 11 8 0 2 21 15 88 2 1 -1.1 .160 .196 .203 -.645 .162 .199 .211 .088 -40.7 92-C -5 -1.8
10o 305 7 5 0 2 11 11 81 1 1 -0.8 .148 .183 .182 -.704 .150 .185 .189 .013 -36.7 74-C -3 -1.7
Weighted Mean 451 19 13 0 4 32 19 93 2 2 -1.4 .184 .223 .242 -.532 .187 .225 .252 .142 -31.4 107-C -5 -0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

52%

56%

40%

13%

1.33

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 18) 451 19 13 0 4 32 19 93 2 2 -1.4 .184 .223 .242 -.532 .187 .225 .252 .142 -31.4 107-C -5 -0.4
2009 (age 19) 484 27 17 1 6 38 24 93 3 2 -1.5 .202 .246 .283 -.425 .202 .245 .289 .177 -23.8 114-C -2 0.4
2010 (age 20) 532 35 21 1 8 46 28 102 2 2 -1.5 .214 .260 .309 -.358 .214 .259 .316 .195 -15.3 125-C -5 0.8
2011 (age 21) 514 38 22 1 9 51 29 91 2 2 -1.5 .230 .279 .338 -.274 .230 .278 .346 .215 -6.6 121-C -5 1.4
2012 (age 22) 515 44 25 1 10 50 33 84 3 2 -1.4 .245 .298 .365 -.195 .244 .297 .373 .232 0.6 121-C -7 1.8
2013 (age 23) 522 46 22 1 12 58 34 80 2 1 -1.3 .246 .298 .374 -.183 .246 .296 .382 .234 1.5 123-C -12 1.5
2014 (age 24) 511 44 22 1 12 58 34 82 2 2 -1.1 .246 .296 .376 -.184 .245 .294 .384 .234 1.2 120-C -6 1.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .201 .241 .272
vs RHP .180 .217 .234
Split +.020 +.024 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -2.6 2.2 -0.4 $400,000 -38.1 0.0
2009 -1.8 2.2 0.4 $575,000 -29.5 0.0
2010 -1.1 1.9 0.8 $1,000,000 -21.2 1.1
2011 -0.4 1.7 1.4 $1,725,000 -13.4 1.2
2012 0.2 1.6 1.8 $2,550,000 -5.6 4.5
2013 0.2 1.3 1.5 $2,225,000 -4.9 1.3
2014 0.2 1.4 1.6 $2,575,000 -2.6 2.0
Peak 8.3 $6,600,000 -5.7 11.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .170 .134 .088 .142
2009 .215 .176 .142 .177
2010 .227 .204 .159 .195
2011 .250 .222 .175 .215
2012 .268 .223 .200 .232
2013 .263 .234 .210 .234
2014 .256 .242 .214 .234


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 13% 0% 52%
2009 10% 6% 71%
2010 21% 14% 79%
2011 26% 20% 80%
2012 33% 28% 84%
2013 44% 33% 87%
2014 54% 41% 82%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

13

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Fernando Lunar 1992 40 11 Willy Aybar 2003 33
2 Guillermo Quiroz 1979 36 12 Wes Mccrotty 1971 33
3 Yorvit Torrealba 1981 36 13 Chris Duncan 1982 33
4 Edgar Renteria 1970 36 14 Felix Nunez 1960 33
5 Tom Maleski 1973 35 15 Darron Ingram 2007 32
6 Nelson Robledo 1992 35 16 Brian Richardson 1975 32
7 Josh Phelps 1975 34 17 Randall Simon 1969 32
8 Rafael Hernandez 1975 34 18 Miguel Cabrera 2000 31
9 Ramon Castro 1957 34 19 Nicholas Giarraputo 1979 30
10 Jorge Cantu 1998 33 20 Jose Lopez 2005 30

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