Josh Papelbon

<< PECOTA Home

Player Search

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 1:34 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	4	4	1	36	7	76.3	83	35	34	6	57%	.294	-13	1.55	4.24	4.50	4.23	9.2	3.8	3.6	0.7	12.3	1.3	1.9
75^o	4	4	1	35	6	72.7	84	35	32	7	57%	.306	-15	1.64	4.84	4.93	4.82	9.8	3.9	3.6	0.8	6.4	0.8	1.3
60^o	3	4	0	34	6	68.7	84	34	30	7	57%	.317	-18	1.72	5.45	5.37	5.42	10.4	4.1	3.6	0.9	1.0	0.3	0.7
50^o	3	4	0	33	6	65.7	84	34	28	7	57%	.328	-20	1.80	6.00	5.77	5.96	10.9	4.2	3.5	0.9	-3.4	-0.1	0.3
40^o	3	4	0	31	6	61.0	84	33	26	7	57%	.342	-23	1.92	6.82	6.38	6.75	11.7	4.4	3.5	1.0	-9.1	-0.6	-0.3
25^o	2	4	0	28	5	53.7	83	31	22	8	56%	.366	-29	2.12	8.19	7.44	8.07	13.0	4.8	3.4	1.2	-16.8	-1.3	-1.0
10^o	1	3	0	25	4	44.7	79	29	18	8	56%	.396	-37	2.40	9.96	8.87	9.76	14.9	5.3	3.4	1.5	-23.4	-1.9	-1.7
Weighted Mean	3	4	0	32	6	63.0	81	33	27	7	57%	.328	-20	1.80	6.06	5.78	6.02	10.9	4.2	3.6	0.9	-3.7	-0.1	0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
35%	57%	23%	13%	1.25

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 25)	3	4	0	32	6	63.0	81	33	27	7	57%	.328	-20	1.80	6.06	5.78	6.02	10.9	4.2	3.6	0.9	-3.7	-0.1	0.3
2009 (age 26)	3	4	0	28	6	60.0	78	29	26	6	57%	.330	-20	1.77	6.19	5.65	6.18	11.0	3.9	3.6	0.9	-3.6	-0.2	0.2
2010 (age 27)	4	4	1	32	6	68.0	79	32	35	5	56%	.313	-12	1.62	5.22	4.79	5.26	9.8	3.8	4.2	0.7	1.0	0.4	0.4
2011 (age 28)	-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.291	.405	.438
vs RHB	.280	.366	.387
Split	+.010	+.039	+.052
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.3	$525,000	-3.4	1.6
2009	0.2	$450,000	-3.4	2.0
2010	0.4	$775,000	1.1	0.8
2011	0.5	$1,100,000	2.3	0.8
2012	0.2	$500,000	0.1	0.4
2013	0.5	$1,500,000	3.2	1.2
2014	0.3	$975,000	1.7	0.4
Peak	2.2	$2,150,000	8.4	6.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.82	5.96	8.07	6.02
2009	4.93	6.24	8.62	6.18
2010	4.22	5.46	7.24	5.26
2011	-- out of baseball --
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	13%	0%	35%
2009	34%	29%	25%
2010	64%	56%	22%
2011	71%	67%	18%
2012	77%	70%	14%
2013	75%	67%	14%
2014	84%	75%	13%

62

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Ehren Wassermann	2005	69		11	Cody Smith	2007	50
2	Barry Hertzler	2006	66		12	Joe Winkelsas	1998	50
3	Jack Cassel	2005	63		13	Timothy Lahey	2007	50
4	Connor Falkenbach	2007	61		14	Tim McNab	2005	49
5	Brian Reed	2006	61		15	Mike Martinez	2006	48
6	Randy Newsom	2007	58		16	Carlos Hines	2005	47
7	Jeff Tam	1995	58		17	Michael Gardner	2006	46
8	Ben Weber	1994	57		18	Sean Martin	2005	46
9	Cory Schultz	2005	55		19	Danny Touchet	2007	45
10	Abe Woody	2007	53		20	Scott Clackum	2000	44

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Younger brother of Jonathan and twin of the Cubs` 19th-round draft pick Jeremy, Josh Papelbon is considered the least gifted of the three, but bears watching thanks to his pedigree, a submarine delivery, and a good pro debut.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	LOW	1A	0	2	13	25	0	29.2	22	6	36	0	68%	.286	-8	0.96	1.85	4.86	6.67	9.0	4.3	5.7	0.3	-3.2		0.2
2007	GRN	1B	5	8	18	62	0	76.0	86	21	57	4	58%	.346	-28	1.41	3.91	6.36	6.46	11.2	4.3	3.2	1.0	-6.8		0.9

Historical Stats