Matt Pagnozzi

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	PMB	A+	295	25	15	3	3	27	20	67	0	1	-0.9	.216	.283	.328	-.474	.178	.229	.276	.166	-31.7	75-C 3	-1.2
2007	SFD	AA	47	5	3	0	0	3	2	11	0	0	0.0	.209	.261	.279	-.576	.159	.213	.227	.125	-6.3	11-C 1	-0.3
2007	MEM	AAA	155	10	6	0	2	9	7	36	1	0	0.0	.220	.275	.305	-.444	.196	.247	.266	.177	-14.1	39-C 1	-0.6
2008	SFD	AA	244	24	10	0	3	19	16	47	2	1	-1.2	.236	.294	.324	-.545	.170	.220	.237	.150	-28.9	57-C 1	-1.6

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:37 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	257	20	12	0	4	22	17	69	1	0	-0.7	.214	.274	.326	-.279	.216	.276	.343	.212	-6.6	63-C 3	0.8
75^o	243	15	9	0	3	19	15	67	1	0	-0.6	.189	.247	.279	-.408	.191	.249	.293	.181	-13.6	60-C 2	0.0
60^o	236	13	8	0	3	17	14	66	1	0	-0.6	.179	.236	.259	-.462	.181	.237	.272	.167	-16.1	59-C 2	-0.4
50^o	233	12	8	0	2	16	13	65	1	0	-0.6	.174	.230	.249	-.488	.176	.231	.262	.158	-17.4	58-C 2	-0.6
40^o	227	11	7	0	2	15	13	64	1	0	-0.5	.167	.222	.235	-.526	.168	.223	.247	.146	-18.9	57-C 1	-0.8
25^o	221	10	7	0	2	14	12	63	1	0	-0.5	.160	.214	.222	-.561	.161	.216	.234	.133	-20.3	55-C 1	-1.0
10^o	170	5	3	0	1	6	9	53	1	0	-0.3	.132	.180	.168	-.711	.133	.181	.177	.020	-21.5	44-C -1	-1.6
Weighted Mean	232	12	8	0	2	17	13	65	1	0	-0.6	.172	.228	.246	-.499	.174	.229	.258	.155	-16.4	58-C 1	-0.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
38%	50%	39%	39%	1.26

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 26)	232	12	8	0	2	17	13	65	1	0	-0.6	.172	.228	.246	-.499	.174	.229	.258	.155	-16.4	58-C 1	-0.5
2010 (age 27)	232	11	7	0	2	15	12	66	1	1	-0.3	.167	.220	.230	-.548	.166	.218	.239	.141	-12.1	58-C 2	-0.3
2011 (age 28)	227	10	6	0	2	15	13	63	1	0	-0.3	.159	.216	.219	-.574	.158	.214	.227	.133	-10.4	57-C 2	-0.2
2012 (age 29)	213	11	7	0	2	15	12	59	1	0	-0.2	.170	.225	.245	-.517	.169	.223	.254	.153	-6.7	53-C 0	0.0
2013 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.189	.247	.275
vs RHP	.169	.223	.237
Split	+.020	+.024	+.038
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-16.3	1.0	-0.5	$400,000	-15.0	0.1
2010	-18.2	2.0	-0.3	$400,000	-10.7	0.0
2011	-19.0	2.0	-0.2	$400,000	-9.0	0.0
2012	-15.3	0.0	0.0	$400,000	-5.9	0.2
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.181	.158	.133	.155
2010	.193	.159	.108	.141
2011	.184	.157	.059	.133
2012	.190	.165	.101	.153
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	39%	0%	38%
2010	58%	40%	33%
2011	68%	52%	28%
2012	76%	59%	26%
2013	76%	72%	23%
2014	86%	75%	22%
2015	87%	81%	22%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

74

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Mike DiFelice	1996	71		11	Ryan Kellner	2004	64
2	Chris Curry	2004	69		12	Mike Fox	1990	63
3	Carlos Diaz	1991	69		13	Doug Lindsey	1994	63
4	Tim Whittaker	2005	68		14	Tom Gregorio	2003	63
5	Dave Toth	1996	68		15	Kris Gresham	1997	61
6	Don Wakamatsu	1989	67		16	Pedro Lopez	1995	61
7	Pedro Grifol	1996	67		17	Tony Gilmore	1995	60
8	Jeremy Salazar	2002	66		18	Mike Mahoney	1999	60
9	Bill Dobrolsky	1996	66		19	Cody Clark	2008	60
10	Ricky Wilson	1986	65		20	Robin Harriss	1998	59

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