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He's probably very handsome. Joel Naughton
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats L
Age 22
6' 1"
180 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 BAT A- 150 13 5 0 1 8 12 20 0 1 -0.7 .206 .268 .265 -.593 .165 .215 .209 .126 -43.2 41-C -4 -2.4
2007 LWD A 220 19 10 1 2 17 19 36 2 3 -4.2 .259 .326 .352 -.357 .211 .264 .302 .195 -15.5 44-C -6 -1.4
2008 LWD A 316 29 17 0 2 33 27 39 1 1 -1.1 .275 .336 .359 -.282 .238 .294 .305 .214 -14.7 81-C 4 0.3


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/7/09 10:23 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 448 47 24 1 8 46 35 80 1 2 -1.0 .262 .321 .386 -.102 .262 .321 .392 .247 7.0 106-C 3 2.6
75o 417 37 19 1 6 40 32 75 1 2 -0.9 .242 .301 .346 -.205 .242 .301 .352 .227 -3.5 99-C 3 1.6
60o 402 33 17 1 5 36 30 73 1 1 -0.8 .232 .291 .327 -.254 .232 .292 .332 .217 -7.9 96-C 3 1.1
50o 388 29 15 0 5 34 29 71 1 1 -0.8 .223 .283 .311 -.296 .224 .283 .316 .208 -11.5 93-C 3 0.8
40o 370 25 13 0 4 30 27 68 0 1 -0.7 .213 .273 .291 -.348 .213 .273 .295 .196 -15.4 89-C 4 0.3
25o 353 22 12 0 3 27 26 66 0 1 -0.7 .204 .264 .273 -.392 .205 .264 .277 .185 -18.3 85-C 4 0.0
10o 327 17 9 0 2 23 23 61 0 1 -0.6 .192 .251 .248 -.455 .192 .252 .252 .168 -21.8 79-C 4 -0.4
Weighted Mean 389 30 16 0 5 34 29 71 1 1 -0.8 .226 .286 .316 -.274 .226 .286 .321 .211 -7.9 93-C 4 1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

50%

63%

15%

15%

1.03

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 22) 389 30 16 0 5 34 29 71 1 1 -0.8 .226 .286 .316 -.274 .226 .286 .321 .211 -7.9 93-C 4 1.0
2010 (age 23) 360 29 15 0 6 33 28 68 1 1 -0.6 .233 .294 .336 -.254 .230 .290 .336 .220 -4.4 87-C 3 0.9
2011 (age 24) 362 28 14 0 5 32 29 66 1 1 -0.4 .228 .291 .324 -.278 .225 .287 .324 .215 -4.9 87-C 3 0.7
2012 (age 25) 316 22 13 0 4 29 24 59 0 1 -0.3 .217 .278 .312 -.322 .214 .275 .313 .205 -5.8 77-C 1 0.3
2013 (age 26) 335 25 13 1 5 31 27 61 0 1 -0.3 .227 .292 .326 -.272 .224 .288 .327 .217 -3.1 81-C 3 0.5
2014 (age 27) 282 20 11 0 4 27 24 50 0 1 -0.2 .229 .296 .327 -.263 .226 .292 .328 .219 -2.2 69-C 0 0.4
2015 (age 28) 270 20 9 0 5 27 25 44 0 1 -0.2 .231 .303 .340 -.232 .228 .299 .340 .228 -1.1 66-C 2 0.5

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .199 .259 .264
vs RHP .235 .297 .343
Split -.036 -.039 -.079
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -9.1 4.0 1.0 $800,000 -5.6 1.1
2010 -5.3 3.0 0.9 $1,025,000 -3.5 2.8
2011 -7.0 3.0 0.7 $800,000 -4.0 2.3
2012 -8.9 1.0 0.3 $400,000 -5.7 1.6
2013 -5.9 3.0 0.5 $1,000,000 -2.1 3.0
2014 -4.4 0.0 0.4 $975,000 -1.9 2.2
2015 -2.0 2.0 0.5 $1,325,000 -0.3 3.8
Peak 5.3 $4,350,000 -0.3 15.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .227 .208 .185 .211
2010 .238 .216 .192 .220
2011 .231 .216 .190 .215
2012 .231 .204 .184 .205
2013 .241 .210 .183 .217
2014 .250 .206 .167 .219
2015 .269 .236 .183 .228


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 15% 0% 50%
2010 40% 17% 53%
2011 49% 34% 48%
2012 57% 43% 39%
2013 63% 52% 38%
2014 70% 58% 35%
2015 76% 63% 35%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

57

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Rene Lopez 1994 49 11 Brian Schneider 1999 40
2 Jhonatan Solano 2008 48 12 Guillermo Garcia 1995 40
3 Victor Martinez 2001 47 13 Mike LaValliere 1983 39
4 Francisco Hernandez 2008 45 14 Mike Musolino 1990 39
5 Andy Dziadkowiec 1990 45 15 Damaso Espino 2006 39
6 Wil Nieves 2000 45 16 Javier Cardona 1998 39
7 Edwin Marquez 1987 44 17 Scott Hatteberg 1992 39
8 Adan Amezcua 1997 43 18 Ricardo Medina 1994 38
9 Robinson Cancel 1999 41 19 Omar Fuentes 2003 38
10 Gabriel Gutierrez 2006 40 20 Raul Padron 2007 37

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