Matt Morgan

<< PECOTA Home

Player Search

');// -->

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	TEN	2A	295	19	13	1	3	35	17	39	0	4	-1.7	.274	.321	.363	-.079	.231	.270	.318	.198	-13.2	54-C -1	0.8
2006	TEN	2A	25	4	2	0	0	3	2	5	0	0	0.0	.364	.417	.455	.309	.261	.320	.348	.235	-0.3		0.0
2007	TUC	3A	242	16	6	0	0	16	21	38	1	0	1.6	.213	.286	.241	-.443	.183	.254	.201	.152	-24.0	27-C 4	-0.9

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:21 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	233	24	11	1	3	21	19	35	2	1	-0.2	.259	.324	.356	-.150	.249	.314	.339	.227	-1.8	58-C -4	0.9
75^o	222	18	9	1	2	18	16	35	1	1	-0.2	.235	.296	.313	-.273	.226	.287	.298	.200	-7.7	55-C -4	0.4
60^o	214	15	7	0	2	17	15	35	1	1	-0.2	.220	.279	.286	-.350	.211	.270	.273	.182	-11.0	54-C -4	0.0
50^o	209	14	7	0	1	16	14	35	1	1	-0.2	.212	.270	.273	-.389	.204	.262	.260	.171	-12.6	53-C -4	0.0
40^o	204	13	6	0	1	15	13	34	1	1	-0.2	.204	.260	.258	-.430	.196	.252	.246	.159	-14.2	52-C -4	-0.3
25^o	192	10	5	0	1	13	12	34	1	1	-0.1	.188	.241	.230	-.511	.181	.234	.219	.132	-16.8	49-C -4	-0.6
10^o	175	7	3	0	0	10	10	33	1	1	-0.1	.171	.220	.200	-.598	.164	.213	.190	.091	-18.6	45-C -4	-0.9
Weighted Mean	207	14	7	0	1	15	14	34	1	1	-0.2	.210	.268	.270	-.398	.202	.260	.257	.168	-11.5	52-C -4	0.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
32%	45%	42%	29%	0.92

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 26)	207	14	7	0	1	15	14	34	1	1	-0.2	.210	.268	.270	-.398	.202	.260	.257	.168	-11.5	52-C -4	0.1
2009 (age 27)	206	15	7	0	1	16	14	33	1	1	-0.1	.223	.282	.289	-.339	.211	.269	.270	.183	-5.7	52-C -3	0.2
2010 (age 28)	211	14	7	0	1	16	15	35	1	1	-0.1	.211	.271	.274	-.385	.200	.259	.256	.172	-5.9	53-C -2	0.1
2011 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.227	.288	.300
vs RHP	.206	.260	.259
Split	+.021	+.027	+.041
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	-0.9	1.0	0.1	$425,000	-15.0	0.1
2009	-0.4	0.5	0.2	$450,000	-7.0	0.1
2010	-0.4	0.5	0.1	$425,000	-6.3	0.1
2011	0.0	0.3	0.2	$450,000	-2.9	0.0
2012	-0.2	0.3	0.1	$450,000	-3.2	0.1
2013	-0.2	0.2	0.0	$425,000	-2.7	0.1
2014	0.0	0.2	0.1	$500,000	-0.8	0.0
Peak			0.7	$175,000	0.0	0.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.200	.171	.132	.168
2009	.218	.191	.146	.183
2010	.195	.172	.131	.172
2011	-- out of baseball --
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	29%	0%	32%
2009	60%	41%	32%
2010	67%	58%	23%
2011	78%	67%	24%
2012	77%	71%	25%
2013	83%	76%	18%
2014	85%	81%	19%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

54

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong! Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Casey Kopitzke	1992	40		11	Robin Harriss	2003	33
2	Tony Gilmore	1979	36		12	Chris Curry	1971	33
3	Mike Difelice	1981	36		13	Brad Hassey	1982	33
4	Charlie Greene	1970	36		14	Kurt Ehmann	1960	33
5	Ryan Kellner	1973	35		15	Raul Chavez	2007	32
6	Steve Bernhardt	1992	35		16	Jerome Alviso	1975	32
7	Dana Levangie	1975	34		17	Ryan Bennett	1969	32
8	Dean Borrelli	1975	34		18	Trey Forkerway	2000	31
9	Troy Buckley	1957	34		19	Brian Esposito	1979	30
10	Clemente Alvarez	1998	33		20	Matt Garrick	2005	30

Baseball Prospectus Home | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy | Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.