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He's probably very handsome. Jesus Montero
New York Yankees [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 19
6' 4"
225 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Yankees Depth Chart (updated: 02-01)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Jesus Montero 5 33 .303 4 1 5 0 .354 .493 1.9
1   2010 Total 5 33 .303 4 1 5 0 .354 .493 1.9

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 YAN Rk 123 13 6 0 3 19 12 18 0 0 -2.4 .280 .366 .421 -.346 .204 .260 .319 .197 -20.3 21-C -5 -1.6
2008 CSC A 569 86 34 1 17 87 37 83 2 1 -2.3 .326 .376 .491 -.016 .283 .327 .437 .261 17.2 70-C -4 1.6


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 1:10 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 620 69 34 2 19 77 42 105 2 2 -1.5 .278 .331 .443 .046 .283 .336 .471 .276 28.2 145-C -15 4.0
75o 604 62 32 2 16 70 39 105 2 2 -1.5 .268 .319 .419 -.016 .273 .325 .445 .264 18.7 141-C -14 3.1
60o 590 56 30 2 14 65 37 105 2 2 -1.4 .259 .309 .397 -.071 .264 .315 .423 .254 10.7 138-C -14 2.4
50o 577 50 28 1 12 59 35 105 1 2 -1.3 .252 .301 .378 -.120 .256 .306 .403 .245 3.9 135-C -13 1.7
40o 572 48 28 1 11 57 34 105 1 2 -1.3 .248 .297 .370 -.140 .253 .302 .394 .241 1.1 134-C -13 1.4
25o 553 42 26 1 9 50 32 105 1 1 -1.2 .238 .285 .346 -.204 .242 .290 .368 .227 -7.2 130-C -12 0.6
10o 527 34 23 1 6 41 29 104 1 1 -1.2 .224 .269 .312 -.290 .228 .274 .332 .208 -17.5 124-C -12 -0.5
Weighted Mean 622 57 31 2 13 65 38 113 2 2 -1.4 .253 .302 .381 -.131 .257 .307 .406 .245 3.6 145-C -14 1.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

34%

59%

17%

6%

0.99

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 19) 622 57 31 2 13 65 38 113 2 2 -1.4 .253 .302 .381 -.131 .257 .307 .406 .245 3.6 145-C -14 1.7
2010 (age 20) 589 59 31 1 14 67 39 92 2 2 -1.3 .270 .322 .411 -.005 .278 .332 .442 .262 16.7 138-C -16 2.5
2011 (age 21) 571 58 30 2 14 71 38 85 2 2 -1.2 .274 .325 .418 .016 .282 .335 .450 .266 18.9 134-C -15 2.7
2012 (age 22) 557 59 29 2 15 69 39 83 2 2 -1.1 .280 .335 .433 .059 .289 .345 .466 .274 23.0 131-C -18 2.7
2013 (age 23) 573 64 30 2 17 75 42 80 2 2 -1.0 .287 .342 .447 .097 .296 .353 .481 .281 26.2 134-C -19 3.3
2014 (age 24) 595 68 31 1 19 80 45 84 2 2 -0.9 .287 .342 .454 .107 .296 .352 .488 .282 26.8 139-C -18 3.2
2015 (age 25) 552 64 29 1 19 78 46 80 2 1 -0.8 .292 .350 .473 .153 .301 .361 .509 .290 28.7 130-C -14 3.5

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .268 .320 .403
vs RHP .248 .294 .368
Split +.020 +.025 +.035
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -4.8 -14.0 1.7 $2,175,000 5.6 2.9
2010 6.5 -16.0 2.5 $5,050,000 16.9 14.9
2011 8.6 -15.0 2.7 $6,325,000 19.6 20.0
2012 13.4 -18.0 2.7 $7,200,000 21.0 19.9
2013 18.4 -19.0 3.3 $10,425,000 27.3 30.4
2014 19.8 -18.0 3.2 $11,000,000 26.8 29.6
2015 23.9 -14.0 3.5 $13,500,000 30.0 35.8
Peak 19.9 $44,875,000 167.6 186.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .264 .245 .227 .245
2010 .277 .260 .242 .262
2011 .289 .263 .243 .266
2012 .293 .273 .257 .274
2013 .294 .275 .255 .281
2014 .298 .285 .242 .282
2015 .314 .290 .262 .290


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 6% 0% 34%
2010 6% 2% 54%
2011 5% 2% 63%
2012 14% 3% 76%
2013 18% 5% 71%
2014 24% 9% 68%
2015 26% 17% 73%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

19

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Ryan Klesko 1991 41 11 Dernell Stenson 1998 26
2 Delmon Young 2005 36 12 Shawn Abner 1986 25
3 Richard Hidalgo 1995 33 13 Butch Garcia 1985 25
4 Chris Marrero 2008 33 14 Gary Sheffield 1988 24
5 Adrian Beltre 1998 30 15 James Loney 2003 24
6 Marc Newfield 1992 30 16 Orlando Mercado 1981 24
7 Aramis Ramirez 1998 29 17 Gilberto Reyes 1983 22
8 Carlos Delgado 1992 29 18 Ben Grieve 1995 22
9 Omar Garcia 1991 29 19 Vernon Wells 1998 22
10 Dmitri Young 1993 27 20 Wilson Betemit 2001 21

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

This hulking teenager, the recipient of a $2 million signing bonus in 2006, has spectacular, Roy Hobbs-shattering-the-clock power. He's also a miserable catcher, having thrown out just three of 32 attempted basestealers last year. The Yankees are still wrestling with whether he'll learn the position with time or just has no aptitude for it, but they're going to put off the decision for as long as possible so as to give Montero every chance to make it as a backstop. What's certain is that he's already huge and terrifically slow, as his seven double plays in 107 at-bats in his professional debut last year suggest. As such, his future is limited to one of three positions: catcher, first base, or ornamental fountain.


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