Mark McCormick

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 12:07 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	5	6	0	28	14	97.7	90	55	68	10	44%	.273	1	1.48	4.19	4.73	4.68	8.1	4.6	5.9	0.9	12.8	1.8	2.2
75^o	4	6	0	28	14	88.0	90	66	62	10	45%	.293	-9	1.77	5.43	6.11	6.00	8.9	6.2	5.9	1.0	-1.9	0.3	0.7
60^o	4	7	0	27	13	85.0	89	69	60	11	45%	.300	-12	1.86	5.86	6.59	6.46	9.2	6.8	5.9	1.1	-6.3	-0.1	0.2
50^o	3	7	0	27	13	83.0	89	71	59	11	45%	.304	-14	1.92	6.12	6.88	6.74	9.4	7.1	5.9	1.1	-8.9	-0.4	0.0
40^o	3	7	0	27	13	80.0	89	74	56	11	45%	.311	-18	2.03	6.61	7.39	7.26	9.7	7.6	5.9	1.2	-13.4	-0.8	-0.5
25^o	2	6	0	27	12	74.3	87	77	53	11	45%	.323	-24	2.20	7.58	8.24	8.32	10.2	8.6	5.9	1.3	-21.5	-1.6	-1.3
10^o	2	7	0	25	11	75.3	74	50	53	8	46%	.285	-13	1.64	9.12	5.51	10.84	8.6	5.5	5.9	0.9	-43.7	-3.7	-3.4
Weighted Mean	3	6	0	27	12	79.7	84	66	56	10	45%	.302	-13	1.88	5.94	6.69	6.55	9.3	6.9	5.9	1.1	-6.4	-0.2	0.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
29%	71%	16%	25%	1.32

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 24)	3	6	0	27	12	79.7	84	66	56	10	45%	.302	-13	1.88	5.94	6.69	6.55	9.3	6.9	5.9	1.1	-6.4	-0.2	0.0
2009 (age 25)	3	6	0	28	11	78.3	79	56	57	9	44%	.293	-10	1.72	5.55	5.97	6.15	8.9	5.9	6.1	1.0	-2.5	0.1	0.3
2010 (age 26)	3	5	0	30	9	75.7	76	54	54	9	43%	.292	-11	1.71	5.43	5.89	6.01	8.8	5.9	5.9	1.0	-1.3	0.2	0.3
2011 (age 27)	3	5	0	29	8	71.3	70	48	48	8	44%	.280	-11	1.64	5.03	5.60	5.58	8.6	5.5	5.6	1.0	1.1	0.5	0.4
2012 (age 28)	3	4	0	26	7	62.3	65	34	43	7	44%	.298	-6	1.58	5.01	5.45	5.56	9.1	4.6	5.8	0.9	0.9	0.4	0.3
2013 (age 29)	2	4	0	23	7	57.0	59	35	39	7	44%	.292	-10	1.64	5.83	5.75	6.50	9.0	5.1	5.8	1.0	-1.8	-0.2	0.0
2014 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.246	.411	.406
vs RHB	.248	.387	.380
Split	-.002	+.024	+.026
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.0	$400,000	-9.1	1.3
2009	0.3	$475,000	-4.6	2.5
2010	0.3	$525,000	-3.0	1.7
2011	0.4	$625,000	-0.2	2.7
2012	0.3	$550,000	0.0	1.4
2013	0.0	$400,000	-2.6	0.6
2014	0.2	$475,000	0.0	0.6
Peak	1.5	$525,000	0.0	10.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	6.00	6.74	8.32	6.55
2009	4.94	6.66	7.88	6.15
2010	4.40	6.19	8.23	6.01
2011	4.22	5.92	8.22	5.58
2012	4.76	5.82	9.69	5.56
2013	5.55	6.67	7.73	6.50
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	25%	0%	29%
2009	45%	22%	37%
2010	53%	31%	40%
2011	62%	52%	38%
2012	75%	57%	40%
2013	74%	63%	24%
2014	81%	70%	24%

27

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Denny Stark	1999	55		11	Yan Lachapelle	2000	26
2	Doug Walls	1998	35		12	Kevin Foster	1993	22
3	Ryan Drese	2000	33		13	Bobby Madritsch	2000	22
4	Grant Duff	2007	32		14	GREG HARVEY	1992	22
5	Mike Steele	2003	30		15	Lesli Brea	2000	22
6	Jeff Robinson	2002	30		16	Alan Horne	2007	22
7	Dave Elder	2000	29		17	Byron Browne	1995	22
8	Steve Shoemaker	1997	27		18	Jack Taschner	2003	21
9	Tyrone Hill	1996	27		19	Cam Smith	1998	21
10	Chuck Ricci	1993	26		20	Winston Abreu	2001	20

Player Comments

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2007

The Bird with the Blur, McCormick is a power pitcher capable of nearing the century mark when he dials it up. His innings-pitched total wasn`t dialed up to the century mark last year due to shoulder soreness. The speed thing he`s got down, it`s the rest of the pitching experience that needs work; until he gets his control under control, the heat alone isn`t going to be enough to get the more advanced players out.

2006

McCormick`s grasp of the strike zone needs some work. He has fantastic velocity, along the lines of a Brad Lidge or Rich Harden, and throws a nasty curveball that acts more like a slider because he throws it so hard. But velocity is immaterial at this point: since McCormick can`t throw anything consistently for strikes, hitters sit back and wait for him to take a little off in order to avoid a walk. Something needs to click for him to have a major league career. Maybe it`ll happen this year, maybe 2010, maybe never.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	NWJ	1A	0	0	0	2	2	6.0	1	3	10	0	33%	.111	15	0.67	0.00	2.51	1.80	1.8	9.0	9.0	0.0	2.1		0.2
2005	QUD	1B	1	2	0	9	9	42.7	41	28	45	4	54%	.327	-26	1.62	5.48	9.62	8.84	11.8	8.6	5.9	2.0	-13.2		-0.8
2006	QUD	1B	2	4	0	11	11	52.2	38	38	63	3	55%	.297	-28	1.46	3.79	9.20	8.19	10.4	12.2	6.9	1.8	-11.7		-0.9
2006	PMB	1C	0	0	0	2	2	4.2	5	3	5	0	17%	.417	-26	1.90	10.71	9.04	14.73	14.7	9.8	7.4	0.0	-3.8		-0.2
2007	CRD	0R	0	0	0	3	3	4.7	1	2	4	0		.091	-18	0.64	1.91	4.36	6.23	2.1	6.2	4.2	0.0	-0.3		0.0
2007	PMB	1C	0	0	0	1	1	3.0	2	0	2	0	43%	.286	15	0.67	0.00	1.46	0.00	7.7	0.0	3.9	0.0	1.4		0.1

Historical Stats