Lucas May

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:40 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	520	56	28	2	18	67	38	138	5	2	0.2	.238	.298	.421	-.087	.242	.301	.441	.252	8.3	122-C -9	2.0
75^o	490	48	25	2	16	60	34	135	5	2	0.2	.225	.284	.395	-.159	.229	.286	.414	.238	-0.3	116-C -8	1.2
60^o	467	41	23	1	14	55	31	132	4	2	0.2	.217	.273	.375	-.211	.220	.275	.393	.228	-6.1	110-C -8	0.6
50^o	453	38	22	1	13	52	29	130	4	2	0.2	.212	.267	.364	-.241	.215	.269	.382	.221	-9.0	107-C -8	0.3
40^o	437	35	21	1	12	48	27	127	4	2	0.2	.206	.260	.352	-.275	.209	.262	.369	.214	-12.2	104-C -7	0.0
25^o	407	29	18	1	10	42	24	122	4	2	0.2	.195	.247	.329	-.336	.199	.249	.345	.200	-17.1	97-C -7	-0.6
10^o	376	23	16	1	8	36	21	116	4	2	0.1	.186	.234	.308	-.394	.189	.237	.323	.186	-20.9	90-C -6	-1.1
Weighted Mean	478	41	23	1	14	56	31	136	4	2	0.2	.212	.268	.366	-.248	.216	.270	.384	.222	-5.8	113-C -8	0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
37%	61%	20%	13%	1.02

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 24)	478	41	23	1	14	56	31	136	4	2	0.2	.212	.268	.366	-.248	.216	.270	.384	.222	-5.8	113-C -8	0.4
2010 (age 25)	430	35	20	1	12	50	29	121	4	2	0.2	.207	.265	.358	-.270	.208	.264	.370	.219	-7.6	102-C -9	0.1
2011 (age 26)	355	27	16	1	10	42	22	102	3	1	0.1	.205	.260	.356	-.285	.206	.258	.368	.215	-5.9	85-C -6	0.0
2012 (age 27)	346	28	16	1	12	43	23	99	3	2	0.1	.211	.270	.383	-.227	.211	.268	.395	.228	-2.3	83-C -9	0.1
2013 (age 28)	329	24	15	1	9	37	20	94	3	1	0.1	.205	.260	.356	-.285	.205	.258	.368	.215	-3.9	80-C -5	0.0
2014 (age 29)	394	30	17	1	11	45	24	114	4	2	0.1	.198	.254	.343	-.317	.199	.252	.355	.209	-4.7	94-C -6	-0.2
2015 (age 30)	357	27	15	1	11	43	24	101	3	1	0.1	.202	.263	.353	-.285	.203	.261	.364	.216	-2.7	86-C -6	0.0

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.230	.288	.396
vs RHP	.208	.261	.350
Split	+.022	+.027	+.046
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-10.6	-8.0	0.4	$400,000	-10.3	0.4
2010	-11.0	-9.0	0.1	$400,000	-12.3	1.5
2011	-10.3	-6.0	0.0	$400,000	-9.1	0.1
2012	-5.6	-9.0	0.1	$400,000	-5.5	1.2
2013	-9.7	-5.0	0.0	$400,000	-6.3	1.4
2014	-13.7	-6.0	-0.2	$400,000	-6.8	0.2
2015	-10.0	-6.0	0.0	$400,000	-4.0	0.3
Peak			0.3	$450,000	0.0	4.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.238	.221	.200	.222
2010	.243	.220	.187	.219
2011	.249	.219	.189	.215
2012	.260	.225	.197	.228
2013	.249	.219	.182	.215
2014	.244	.208	.183	.209
2015	.252	.215	.177	.216

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	13%	0%	37%
2010	32%	14%	26%
2011	55%	34%	31%
2012	62%	48%	29%
2013	69%	54%	25%
2014	72%	62%	17%
2015	76%	68%	18%

66

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Giuseppe Chiaramonte	2000	66		11	Mike Figga	1995	49
2	Stine Poole	1983	56		12	Shawn Gallagher	2001	48
3	Marty Castillo	1981	55		13	Stefan Bailie	2005	47
4	Bubba Holland	1983	53		14	Kevin Cash	2002	47
5	Joe Depastino	1998	53		15	Aaron Peel	2007	47
6	Tim McIntosh	1989	52		16	Mike Diaz	1984	47
7	Steve Hagins	1999	52		17	Justin Knoedler	2005	46
8	Bryan Baar	1992	51		18	Brett Carroll	2007	46
9	Ryan Patterson	2008	50		19	Jeff Mathis	2007	46
10	Tyrone Woods	1994	49		20	Bill Schroeder	1983	46

Player Comments

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2008

In the grand tradition of Joe Ferguson and Russell Martin, the Dodgers have attempted to make a catcher out of the strong-armed May, who was drafted in 2003 as a shortstop, then shifted to the outfield in 2005 before donning the tools of ignorance last year. Behind the plate, May's a work in progress; he threw out 30 percent of runners but was charged with 31 passed balls (!) in 78 games. At the plate, he has power when he connects, but contact and strike zone judgment are not-so-trivial problems he'll have to overcome.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	CGA	A	497	76	27	9	18	82	35	130	14	2	1.9	.273	.332	.493	-.262	.215	.258	.381	.219	-20.4	48-LF -6 34-RF -2	-3.1
2007	SBR	A+	554	81	25	3	25	89	36	107	5	7	0.0	.256	.313	.465	-.303	.206	.250	.365	.207	-29.4	76-C -8	-2.5
2008	JAX	AA	441	54	27	1	13	54	32	112	6	1	1.7	.230	.294	.403	-.295	.208	.257	.361	.216	-21.9	94-C -13	-1.8

Historical Stats