<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

He's probably very handsome. Jonathan Lucroy
Milwaukee Brewers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 23
6'
185 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 HEL Rk 253 35 18 2 4 39 16 37 0 3 -4.8 .342 .383 .487 -.360 .221 .253 .312 .191 -33.0 32-C 4 -1.0
2008 WVA A 274 45 16 1 10 33 30 39 8 1 2.9 .310 .391 .510 -.129 .236 .309 .402 .249 -0.8 47-C 3 1.1
2008 BRV A+ 272 31 12 1 10 44 28 45 1 2 -2.2 .292 .364 .479 -.058 .256 .317 .434 .258 5.0 48-C 4 1.6


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/8/09 12:49 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 584 72 34 2 17 70 51 121 5 3 -0.5 .266 .334 .440 .002 .268 .332 .453 .268 21.9 137-C -2 4.3
75o 554 61 31 2 15 63 47 116 4 3 -0.4 .254 .320 .412 -.070 .256 .318 .424 .255 11.6 130-C -2 3.3
60o 527 53 28 2 13 57 43 112 4 2 -0.4 .243 .308 .388 -.131 .245 .306 .400 .243 3.5 124-C -2 2.5
50o 512 49 26 2 11 54 41 109 4 2 -0.4 .238 .301 .375 -.164 .239 .299 .386 .236 -0.6 121-C -1 2.0
40o 496 44 25 2 10 51 39 107 4 2 -0.4 .232 .294 .362 -.198 .233 .293 .373 .229 -4.5 117-C -1 1.6
25o 477 39 23 2 9 47 36 103 4 2 -0.3 .225 .286 .346 -.240 .226 .285 .356 .220 -8.9 113-C -1 1.1
10o 413 27 17 1 5 35 29 92 3 2 -0.3 .204 .262 .299 -.360 .205 .260 .308 .192 -19.2 98-C 0 0.0
Weighted Mean 541 54 28 2 12 58 44 115 4 2 -0.4 .241 .305 .383 -.144 .242 .303 .394 .239 4.8 127-C -3 2.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

31%

55%

17%

11%

1.23

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 23) 541 54 28 2 12 58 44 115 4 2 -0.4 .241 .305 .383 -.144 .242 .303 .394 .239 4.8 127-C -3 2.3
2010 (age 24) 514 51 25 2 13 57 41 103 4 2 -0.3 .244 .307 .389 -.147 .242 .301 .395 .242 3.1 121-C -4 2.0
2011 (age 25) 475 44 23 2 11 51 38 97 3 2 -0.2 .238 .302 .379 -.174 .237 .296 .385 .237 0.3 112-C -3 1.8
2012 (age 26) 463 43 21 1 12 51 39 96 3 2 -0.1 .238 .305 .380 -.169 .236 .298 .386 .238 0.6 110-C -3 1.5
2013 (age 27) 400 36 18 1 10 44 34 78 2 2 -0.1 .239 .307 .382 -.160 .237 .301 .388 .240 0.9 95-C -3 1.2
2014 (age 28) 443 40 21 1 11 50 36 86 2 2 0.0 .234 .298 .376 -.188 .232 .292 .382 .233 -0.5 105-C -2 0.9
2015 (age 29) 409 34 18 1 9 43 33 77 3 1 0.0 .231 .296 .358 -.218 .229 .290 .363 .228 -1.5 98-C -4 0.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .256 .323 .408
vs RHP .236 .297 .368
Split +.021 +.026 +.040
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -2.9 -3.0 2.3 $3,000,000 8.2 6.1
2010 -1.3 -4.0 2.0 $2,600,000 4.8 6.9
2011 -3.9 -3.0 1.8 $2,375,000 3.4 6.6
2012 -3.2 -3.0 1.5 $2,225,000 2.7 5.3
2013 -1.9 -3.0 1.2 $2,000,000 2.5 7.2
2014 -5.1 -2.0 0.9 $1,725,000 1.1 5.7
2015 -6.9 -4.0 0.6 $1,350,000 -0.6 2.1
Peak 9.7 $9,450,000 22.7 37.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .255 .236 .220 .239
2010 .261 .244 .226 .242
2011 .257 .235 .209 .237
2012 .261 .243 .217 .238
2013 .262 .233 .205 .240
2014 .271 .231 .203 .233
2015 .265 .228 .205 .228


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 11% 0% 31%
2010 17% 5% 39%
2011 28% 7% 34%
2012 39% 27% 37%
2013 57% 37% 30%
2014 64% 51% 28%
2015 70% 60% 24%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

62

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Brook Fordyce 1993 60 11 John Roskos 1997 45
2 Curtis Thigpen 2006 60 12 Pat Cline 1997 45
3 Kiki Hernandez 1992 54 13 Tim McIntosh 1988 43
4 Lou Palmisano 2005 51 14 Dave Hengel 1985 43
5 Kurt Suzuki 2006 50 15 John Christensen 1983 43
6 Al Pardo 1985 50 16 Terry McGriff 1986 42
7 J.R. House 2002 47 17 Giuseppe Chiaramonte 1999 42
8 Jim Campanis 1990 47 18 Troy Fortin 1998 42
9 Steve Padia 1985 45 19 Adam Lind 2006 41
10 Scotti Madison 1982 45 20 Larry See 1983 40

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

A third-round 2007 pick out of Lousiana-Lafayette, Jonathan Lucroy reinforced the opinion that he was the second-best offensive catcher in last year's crop behind only Matt Wieters by tearing up the Pioneer League with such conviction that he'll likely skip to the Florida State League to start 2008.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.