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He's probably very handsome. Che-Hsuan Lin
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Center Field
Bats R
Age 19
6'
180 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 RSX 0R 200 33 10 6 4 22 17 42 14 3 -0.1 .263 .330 .457 .135 .202 .250 .339 .213 -29.6 28-CF -5 0.3
2007 LOW 1A 50 7 2 0 0 3 5 10 3 2 -0.4 .163 .265 .209 -.319 .156 .224 .200 .153 -11.8 11-CF 3 0.0


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 1:08 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 523 59 33 5 7 45 37 128 17 8 1.0 .242 .300 .379 -.146 .236 .296 .387 .243 -6.1 123-CF -2 2.4
75o 496 48 29 4 6 40 32 126 15 8 0.9 .226 .281 .348 -.230 .220 .278 .356 .226 -15.7 117-CF -2 1.4
60o 484 44 27 4 5 38 30 125 15 7 0.9 .220 .272 .335 -.265 .214 .270 .342 .218 -19.4 114-CF -2 1.0
50o 473 40 26 4 5 36 28 124 14 7 0.8 .214 .265 .323 -.296 .208 .262 .331 .211 -22.5 112-CF -2 0.7
40o 462 37 25 3 4 35 27 123 14 7 0.8 .208 .258 .312 -.326 .203 .256 .319 .204 -25.3 109-CF -2 0.4
25o 448 33 23 3 4 32 25 122 13 7 0.7 .201 .250 .299 -.363 .196 .247 .306 .194 -28.4 106-CF -2 0.1
10o 417 26 20 2 3 28 21 118 12 7 0.6 .188 .233 .272 -.436 .183 .230 .278 .174 -33.8 99-CF -2 -0.6
Weighted Mean 478 39 25 3 4 36 28 128 14 7 0.8 .208 .258 .312 -.326 .203 .256 .319 .203 -25.3 113-CF -2 0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

40%

62%

23%

7%

1.25

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 19) 478 39 25 3 4 36 28 128 14 7 0.8 .208 .258 .312 -.326 .203 .256 .319 .203 -25.3 113-CF -2 0.9
2009 (age 20) 466 42 27 3 6 39 27 117 14 7 0.7 .224 .272 .343 -.252 .221 .274 .357 .220 -14.4 110-CF -2 1.3
2010 (age 21) 474 46 28 4 7 45 28 111 16 8 0.6 .231 .281 .357 -.214 .228 .283 .371 .229 -10.0 112-CF -1 1.5
2011 (age 22) 552 63 32 6 8 48 37 125 16 8 0.5 .242 .297 .378 -.152 .239 .299 .393 .242 -3.6 130-CF -3 1.4
2012 (age 23) 529 63 32 5 11 56 33 111 14 7 0.4 .254 .305 .406 -.093 .251 .307 .422 .252 0.3 124-CF -1 1.5
2013 (age 24) 456 49 29 4 9 53 26 92 12 6 0.3 .253 .298 .404 -.107 .250 .300 .420 .249 -0.5 108-CF -2 1.2
2014 (age 25) 465 56 28 4 12 62 30 94 13 6 0.3 .266 .314 .435 -.029 .263 .316 .453 .264 2.7 110-CF -2 1.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .224 .276 .339
vs RHP .204 .252 .301
Split +.020 +.024 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -1.0 1.9 0.9 $950,000 -23.2 0.2
2009 -0.3 1.5 1.3 $1,450,000 -11.7 1.4
2010 0.1 1.5 1.5 $1,875,000 -6.7 1.4
2011 0.4 1.1 1.4 $1,825,000 -2.0 0.8
2012 0.6 1.0 1.5 $2,650,000 2.5 4.1
2013 0.4 0.8 1.2 $2,025,000 1.3 2.5
2014 0.6 0.8 1.4 $3,225,000 4.5 5.3
Peak 8.4 $8,675,000 14.6 20.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .226 .211 .194 .203
2009 .229 .210 .187 .220
2010 .241 .223 .193 .229
2011 .257 .238 .208 .242
2012 .265 .247 .221 .252
2013 .262 .238 .221 .249
2014 .278 .253 .237 .264


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 7% 0% 40%
2009 25% 10% 57%
2010 30% 19% 62%
2011 53% 40% 68%
2012 59% 50% 72%
2013 65% 54% 72%
2014 71% 64% 76%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

41

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Richard Pena 1992 40 11 Florentino Nunez 2003 33
2 Javier Herrera 1979 36 12 Lino Garcia 1971 33
3 Alex Ramirez 1981 36 13 Ronnie Hall 1982 33
4 Larue Baber 1970 36 14 Carlos Gomez 1960 33
5 Luis Terrero 1973 35 15 Peter Bourjos 2007 32
6 Ashanti Davison 1992 35 16 Sandy Garcia 1975 32
7 Joe Benson 1975 34 17 Carlos Garcia 1969 32
8 Arturo Rivas 1975 34 18 Jesus Soto 2000 31
9 Jayson Bass 1957 34 19 Willy Taveras 1979 30
10 Oscar Jiminez 1998 33 20 Cristian Guerrero 2005 30

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