Brent Lillibridge

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 1:08 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	597	98	33	6	19	63	56	124	33	9	3.4	.285	.360	.479	.095	.283	.357	.489	.289	42.9	140-SS 3	7.2
75^o	577	88	30	5	17	59	52	121	32	9	3.2	.276	.348	.455	.035	.273	.346	.464	.279	33.4	135-SS 3	6.3
60^o	541	72	27	5	13	53	45	116	30	8	2.8	.259	.327	.413	-.069	.257	.325	.421	.261	18.1	127-SS 2	4.9
50^o	524	65	25	4	11	50	41	113	29	8	2.7	.252	.318	.393	-.117	.250	.316	.401	.252	11.6	123-SS 1	4.2
40^o	511	60	24	4	10	48	39	111	29	8	2.6	.246	.311	.379	-.153	.244	.308	.387	.245	7.0	120-SS 1	3.7
25^o	496	54	22	4	8	45	37	108	28	8	2.4	.240	.302	.363	-.193	.238	.300	.370	.237	2.2	117-SS 1	3.2
10^o	469	46	20	3	6	41	32	104	26	8	2.2	.229	.288	.335	-.263	.227	.286	.342	.223	-5.7	111-SS 0	2.4
Weighted Mean	570	77	28	5	13	56	47	122	32	9	2.7	.258	.326	.409	-.078	.256	.323	.417	.259	19.9	134-SS 1	4.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
36%	57%	12%	16%	1.03

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 24)	570	77	28	5	13	56	47	122	32	9	2.7	.258	.326	.409	-.078	.256	.323	.417	.259	19.9	134-SS 1	4.8
2009 (age 25)	541	72	26	4	13	55	46	115	30	9	2.3	.259	.328	.413	-.068	.252	.321	.413	.261	15.1	127-SS 2	4.0
2010 (age 26)	506	67	26	5	12	53	42	105	28	8	2.2	.265	.333	.428	-.034	.259	.325	.429	.266	17.8	119-SS 1	4.1
2011 (age 27)	487	62	23	4	12	51	41	99	23	6	1.9	.265	.334	.421	-.042	.258	.326	.422	.264	15.2	115-SS 2	3.6
2012 (age 28)	468	59	22	3	13	52	40	96	19	6	1.6	.269	.338	.430	-.021	.262	.330	.431	.267	14.4	111-SS 0	3.1
2013 (age 29)	518	64	24	4	12	55	42	105	22	7	1.7	.256	.323	.403	-.091	.250	.316	.404	.254	9.9	122-SS 2	3.1
2014 (age 30)	504	65	23	3	15	57	43	108	21	6	1.2	.261	.329	.426	-.047	.255	.322	.427	.263	10.7	119-SS 1	2.8

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.274	.346	.438
vs RHP	.252	.316	.390
Split	+.022	+.030	+.048
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	1.6	3.3	4.8	$10,650,000	21.9	22.7
2009	1.4	2.6	4.0	$8,875,000	17.0	19.4
2010	1.6	2.4	4.1	$10,050,000	19.4	22.4
2011	1.4	2.2	3.6	$9,325,000	16.9	20.5
2012	1.3	1.8	3.1	$8,350,000	14.8	16.9
2013	1.0	2.0	3.1	$8,000,000	10.8	15.2
2014	1.0	1.8	2.8	$7,850,000	10.6	14.3
Peak			22.7	$44,425,000	100.9	117.1

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.279	.252	.237	.259
2009	.277	.265	.244	.261
2010	.286	.265	.250	.266
2011	.285	.270	.247	.264
2012	.284	.269	.247	.267
2013	.284	.260	.237	.254
2014	.282	.267	.242	.263

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	16%	0%	36%
2009	28%	7%	46%
2010	30%	13%	41%
2011	40%	18%	45%
2012	47%	26%	43%
2013	44%	27%	35%
2014	61%	44%	30%

Player Comments

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2007

Lillibridge made a fairly seamless midseason jump from Hickory to High-A Lynchburg. However, his power didn`t make the trip with him. Still, his speed and selectivity at the plate should have him in Pittsburgh sooner rather than later. He has above average range, good hands, and a strong arm to go with his patience and gap power. With Lillibridge possibly starting 2007 at Double-A, the Pirates will soon get the chance to see if they have a better shortstop than Jack Wilson, and might thereby improve their lot by moving their current regular. We`ll all be waiting to see them take that chance.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	WPT	1A	191	19	12	4	4	18	14	35	10	3	1.2	.243	.305	.432	.066	.182	.228	.324	.193	-21.9	41-SS 5	0.9
2006	HIC	1B	333	59	18	5	11	43	51	61	29	8	3.6	.299	.414	.522	.354	.243	.337	.417	.265	13.5	72-SS 14	4.1
2006	LYN	1C	252	47	10	3	2	28	36	43	24	5	6.0	.313	.426	.423	.235	.262	.355	.350	.261	6.9	54-SS -5	2.0
2007	MIS	2A	237	31	8	3	3	17	20	60	14	7	2.0	.275	.355	.387	.071	.236	.303	.349	.233	-1.2	52-SS -6	0.9
2007	RIC	3A	355	47	14	2	10	41	20	59	28	5	5.6	.287	.331	.436	.085	.270	.313	.426	.262	13.0	84-SS 2	3.2

Historical Stats