Dan Lehmann

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2007	ELZ	Rk	90	12	2	0	3	17	9	10	0	0	0.0	.221	.333	.364	-.582	.145	.211	.229	.133	-23.9	22-C -4	-1.6
2008	BLT	A	117	13	4	3	0	6	9	15	0	2	-0.5	.240	.313	.337	-.461	.187	.243	.262	.167	-12.0	26-C 3	-0.3
2008	FTM	A+	155	12	3	0	0	6	16	12	2	1	-0.5	.244	.351	.267	-.357	.219	.303	.241	.198	-10.9	33-C 0	-0.5

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:55 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	337	27	13	1	3	26	22	59	1	1	-0.3	.225	.283	.307	-.279	.227	.287	.321	.214	-9.3	81-C -3	0.2
75^o	323	23	12	1	3	24	21	58	1	1	-0.3	.210	.269	.283	-.347	.212	.273	.297	.198	-14.1	78-C -3	-0.3
60^o	308	19	10	1	2	22	20	57	1	1	-0.3	.196	.255	.260	-.413	.197	.258	.273	.181	-18.1	75-C -3	-0.7
50^o	300	18	9	1	2	21	19	57	1	1	-0.3	.189	.248	.250	-.444	.190	.251	.262	.173	-19.8	73-C -2	-0.9
40^o	292	16	9	1	2	20	19	56	1	1	-0.3	.182	.241	.239	-.475	.183	.244	.250	.163	-21.4	71-C -2	-1.0
25^o	262	11	7	1	1	16	16	54	1	1	-0.2	.160	.220	.206	-.569	.162	.224	.215	.130	-25.0	64-C -1	-1.5
10^o	226	8	5	1	0	12	14	49	1	1	-0.2	.143	.204	.179	-.643	.145	.207	.187	.090	-25.5	56-C -1	-1.6
Weighted Mean	296	17	9	1	2	21	19	57	1	1	-0.3	.185	.244	.244	-.450	.187	.248	.256	.168	-20.0	72-C -1	-0.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
38%	53%	37%	35%	1.21

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 23)	296	17	9	1	2	21	19	57	1	1	-0.3	.185	.244	.244	-.450	.187	.248	.256	.168	-20.0	72-C -1	-0.8
2010 (age 24)	284	17	9	1	2	20	18	53	1	1	-0.2	.188	.249	.252	-.427	.192	.256	.267	.174	-13.1	69-C -3	-0.5
2011 (age 25)	240	13	7	1	2	17	15	45	1	1	-0.1	.180	.239	.246	-.458	.184	.246	.261	.166	-9.1	60-C -1	-0.3
2012 (age 26)	234	12	7	1	1	17	15	45	1	1	-0.1	.186	.248	.248	-.436	.190	.254	.263	.173	-5.5	58-C -2	0.0
2013 (age 27)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 28)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.202	.262	.273
vs RHP	.181	.239	.235
Split	+.020	+.024	+.038
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-19.1	-1.0	-0.8	$400,000	-18.8	0.0
2010	-16.9	-3.0	-0.5	$400,000	-12.4	0.0
2011	-15.8	-1.0	-0.3	$400,000	-8.0	0.0
2012	-14.2	-2.0	0.0	$400,000	-4.5	0.6
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	$50,000	-2.1	1.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.198	.173	.130	.168
2010	.203	.169	.128	.174
2011	.194	.169	.120	.166
2012	.222	.187	.123	.173
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	35%	0%	38%
2010	49%	34%	34%
2011	64%	48%	29%
2012	78%	64%	27%
2013	80%	71%	30%
2014	79%	75%	27%
2015	90%	80%	23%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

67

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Joe Goodwin	1998	66		11	Greg Beals	1993	55
2	Joe Perona	1993	65		12	Pee-Wee Lopez	2000	55
3	James Stassi	1983	58		13	John Duncan	1985	54
4	David Duff	1982	58		14	Brandon Harper	2000	53
5	Barry Lyons	1984	57		15	David Lindstrom	1998	53
6	Thomas Niemann	1985	57		16	Jerry Neufang	1984	53
7	Greg Olson	1984	56		17	Ricky Gonzalez	1998	53
8	Tony Defrancesco	1987	56		18	Sal Agostinelli	1985	52
9	Ryan Hanigan	2004	56		19	Shawn Gill	1984	52
10	Stephen Eagar	1986	55		20	Erez Borowsky	1984	52

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