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He's probably very handsome. Jason Knapp
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 18
6' 5"
215 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 PHL Rk 3 1 0 7 6 31.0 26 12 38 1 40% .333 -6 1.23 2.61 0 6.29 14.1 6.7 5.2 1.8 -1.9 0.0 0.1


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/10/09 6:21 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 7 9 0 23 23 135.3 119 59 119 11 44% .283 26 1.32 5.48 -1 5.98 7.9 3.4 6.8 0.7 -5.0 0.6 0.6
75o 4 10 0 22 22 109.0 144 72 72 23 44% .335 -1 1.98 8.11 -1 8.33 11.8 5.2 5.1 1.9 -33.5 -2.5 -2.5
60o 4 10 0 22 22 104.3 148 74 65 25 44% .344 -6 2.12 8.67 0 8.82 12.6 5.6 4.8 2.1 -37.9 -2.9 -3.1
50o 3 10 0 22 22 102.0 149 74 61 26 44% .348 -9 2.19 8.96 0 9.06 13.0 5.7 4.6 2.2 -39.9 -3.2 -3.3
40o 3 10 0 22 22 95.7 153 77 51 28 44% .360 -17 2.40 9.73 0 9.71 14.3 6.3 4.1 2.6 -44.7 -3.7 -3.9
25o 2 9 0 21 21 85.3 161 81 34 32 44% .382 -33 2.83 11.07 0 10.74 16.8 7.4 3.1 3.3 -50.0 -4.3 -4.6
10o 2 7 0 25 19 66.7 180 90 1 41 44% .428 -77 4.05 12.69 0 12.14 24.1 10.7 0.1 5.4 -49.9 -4.4 -4.7
Weighted Mean 4 10 0 23 23 106.7 156 78 64 27 44% .348 -9 2.19 8.88 0 8.97 13.0 5.7 4.6 2.2 -38.0 -3.2 -3.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

0%

0%

0%

0%

1.57

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2009 (age 18) 4 10 0 23 23 106.7 156 78 64 27 44% .348 -9 2.19 8.88 0 8.97 13.0 5.7 4.6 2.2 -38.0 -3.2 -3.4
2010 (age 19) 6 10 0 33 23 130.0 168 80 87 26 44% .330 -2 1.90 7.15 -1 7.28 11.5 4.8 5.2 1.8 -20.6 -1.5 -1.4
2011 (age 20) 5 8 0 29 19 109.7 139 66 83 20 44% .339 3 1.86 6.85 -1 7.00 11.3 4.7 5.9 1.6 -14.1 -0.9 -0.8
2012 (age 21) 6 8 1 39 17 119.0 141 53 96 19 44% .328 9 1.63 5.83 -1 5.98 10.5 3.5 6.2 1.4 -3.5 0.2 0.3
2013 (age 22) 6 8 1 38 16 113.7 133 51 88 18 44% .325 8 1.62 5.70 -1 5.85 10.4 3.5 6.0 1.4 -1.8 0.4 0.4
2014 (age 23) 5 6 1 36 11 94.0 108 41 72 15 44% .315 6 1.58 5.45 0 5.59 10.2 3.5 5.9 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.6
2015 (age 24) 3 3 0 20 6 52.3 59 21 46 9 44% .318 12 1.51 5.32 0 5.44 10.0 3.1 6.8 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.5

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .305 .432 .512
vs RHB .296 .398 .473
Split +.009 +.034 +.039
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2009 -3.4 $400,000 -40.5 0.2
2010 -1.4 $400,000 -22.7 1.4
2011 -0.8 $400,000 -15.7 4.6
2012 0.3 $400,000 -4.9 3.4
2013 0.4 $725,000 -3.0 3.0
2014 0.6 $1,225,000 -0.4 3.4
2015 0.5 $1,275,000 0.6 2.0
Peak 2.3 $1,400,000 0.6 18.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 8.33 9.06 10.74 8.97
2010 6.50 7.68 9.25 7.28
2011 6.02 7.62 8.91 7.00
2012 4.95 6.04 7.54 5.98
2013 4.99 5.86 7.35 5.85
2014 4.49 5.34 7.45 5.59
2015 5.01 6.07 6.22 5.44


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 N/A 0% N/A
2010 14% 3% 8%
2011 24% 14% 10%
2012 28% 21% 23%
2013 34% 22% 19%
2014 46% 32% 24%
2015 58% 39% 16%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

12

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Steve Gasser 1986 61 11 Dwight Gooden 1983 30
2 Johnny Ruffin 1990 47 12 Mark Grant 1982 29
3 Rick Balabon 1986 45 13 Jacob McGee 2005 28
4 Pat Mahomes 1989 40 14 Daryl Green 1987 28
5 Jimmy Jones 1983 38 15 Kurt Miller 1991 28
6 Frank Castillo 1988 38 16 Hector Trinidad 1992 27
7 Tim Scott 1985 37 17 Chad Bowen 2001 27
8 Lance McCullers 1983 35 18 Jeff Howes 1985 26
9 Jeff Bumgarner 1986 35 19 Shannon Withem 1991 26
10 Matt Murray 1989 30 20 Cliff Brantley 1987 25

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