Devin Ivany

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 12:04 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	226	26	12	1	5	23	14	45	5	2	0.3	.248	.301	.381	-.167	.248	.301	.388	.237	1.1	57-C -3	1.2
75^o	211	20	9	1	4	20	12	43	5	2	0.2	.231	.280	.341	-.269	.231	.280	.348	.216	-4.0	53-C -3	0.8
60^o	204	18	8	1	3	18	11	43	5	1	0.2	.223	.271	.325	-.312	.223	.271	.331	.207	-5.9	51-C -3	0.6
50^o	197	16	7	1	3	17	10	42	4	1	0.2	.216	.262	.309	-.353	.216	.263	.315	.197	-7.6	50-C -2	0.4
40^o	190	15	7	0	2	16	10	41	4	1	0.2	.210	.255	.295	-.389	.210	.255	.300	.188	-9.0	48-C -2	0.3
25^o	175	11	5	0	2	14	8	39	4	1	0.2	.197	.239	.266	-.464	.197	.239	.271	.168	-11.3	45-C -2	0.0
10^o	152	8	3	0	1	10	6	36	4	1	0.1	.180	.218	.228	-.561	.180	.219	.233	.137	-13.2	40-C -2	-0.3
Weighted Mean	182	15	7	0	3	16	10	39	4	1	0.2	.216	.262	.309	-.353	.216	.263	.315	.197	-6.0	47-C -2	0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
40%	54%	28%	36%	0.98

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 25)	182	15	7	0	3	16	10	39	4	1	0.2	.216	.262	.309	-.353	.216	.263	.315	.197	-6.0	47-C -2	0.6
2009 (age 26)	196	17	7	0	3	19	10	40	4	1	0.1	.220	.267	.321	-.327	.216	.263	.321	.203	-4.0	50-C -3	0.4
2010 (age 27)	223	22	9	0	5	23	11	44	5	2	0.1	.228	.269	.343	-.289	.224	.265	.343	.210	-2.2	56-C 0	0.4
2011 (age 28)	180	14	6	0	3	18	9	37	3	1	0.1	.219	.261	.314	-.346	.216	.257	.315	.197	-2.8	46-C -1	0.2
2012 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.232	.280	.336
vs RHP	.212	.256	.297
Split	+.020	+.024	+.039
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	-0.5	1.1	0.6	$700,000	-8.1	0.1
2009	-0.3	0.6	0.4	$550,000	-5.3	0.0
2010	0.0	0.6	0.4	$600,000	-2.2	0.5
2011	-0.2	0.4	0.2	$500,000	-3.1	0.0
2012	0.0	0.3	0.2	$525,000	-1.3	0.1
2013	0.0	0.2	0.2	$500,000	-1.5	0.0
2014	0.0	0.2	0.2	$525,000	-0.9	0.0
Peak			2.0	$825,000	0.0	0.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.216	.197	.168	.197
2009	.225	.208	.175	.203
2010	.235	.210	.188	.210
2011	.227	.195	.173	.197
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	36%	0%	40%
2009	55%	36%	36%
2010	66%	54%	36%
2011	74%	63%	23%
2012	78%	69%	23%
2013	83%	77%	25%
2014	85%	81%	15%

64

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Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Javier Flores	1992	40		11	Bill Dobrolsky	2003	33
2	Darron Cox	1979	36		12	Joe Ayrault	1971	33
3	Richie Borrero	1981	36		13	Matt Ceriani	1982	33
4	Sean Delaney	1970	36		14	Tony Gilmore	1960	33
5	Kris Gresham	1973	35		15	Tony Arnerich	2007	32
6	Mike Difelice	1992	35		16	Tom Gregorio	1975	32
7	David Benham	1975	34		17	Ryan Hubele	1969	32
8	Shane Cronin	1975	34		18	Frank Charles	2000	31
9	Robin Harriss	1957	34		19	Brian Esposito	1979	30
10	Caleb Brock	1998	33		20	Edgar Cruz	2005	30

Player Comments

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2007

Devin Ivany isn`t really a prospect, but we wanted to include a certain number of Nats, and guys who wear the tools of ignorance have it rough. To Ivany`s credit, he`s a smooth receiver and throws well, gunning down 35 percent of attempting base stealers.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	SAV	1B	446	52	27	1	13	54	25	65	7	7	1.2	.262	.315	.428	.044	.207	.244	.323	.192	-27.5	84-C 0	0.8
2006	POT	1C	482	62	19	3	6	55	25	64	12	3	2.1	.262	.311	.359	-.040	.229	.262	.314	.200	-24.7	95-C 2	1.4
2007	NAT	0R	5	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	0.1	.333	.400	.333	.098	.000	.167	.000	.100	-2.6		0.0
2007	HAG	1B	16	1	1	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0.0	.167	.333	.250	-.233	.154	.267	.154	.184	-2.0		0.0
2007	POT	1C	144	18	5	0	5	19	7	26	4	2	1.3	.275	.313	.427	.051	.230	.257	.341	.209	-6.0	27-C -1	0.1
2007	HAR	2A	83	8	4	0	0	7	7	21	1	1	0.4	.178	.244	.233	-.429	.162	.220	.203	.142	-10.3	22-C -4	-0.2

Historical Stats