Jeffrey Howell

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	BUR	A	430	40	17	2	5	35	44	82	2	3	-0.1	.249	.329	.345	-.508	.176	.237	.238	.159	-50.5	70-C -5	-3.8
2007	BUR	A	226	18	14	0	3	22	10	33	1	2	0.8	.232	.268	.341	-.632	.157	.182	.231	.115	-35.6	46-C -4	-2.8
2008	WIL	A+	316	30	18	0	6	44	24	54	1	3	-6.8	.259	.323	.385	-.425	.194	.244	.286	.177	-29.0	83-C -1	-1.4

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:28 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	318	23	15	0	5	28	20	83	0	1	-0.9	.201	.257	.308	-.360	.199	.255	.318	.196	-14.1	77-C -1	0.0
75^o	296	17	12	0	4	24	17	79	0	0	-0.8	.184	.236	.271	-.457	.182	.235	.279	.169	-19.8	72-C -1	-0.8
60^o	279	14	10	0	3	21	15	76	0	0	-0.7	.173	.223	.248	-.517	.171	.222	.256	.149	-22.6	68-C -1	-1.2
50^o	267	12	9	0	2	19	14	73	0	0	-0.6	.166	.215	.233	-.556	.164	.213	.240	.134	-24.0	66-C -1	-1.4
40^o	257	11	8	0	2	17	13	71	0	0	-0.6	.161	.209	.223	-.583	.159	.207	.230	.122	-24.7	63-C -1	-1.5
25^o	238	9	6	0	2	15	12	67	0	0	-0.6	.154	.200	.207	-.624	.152	.198	.214	.100	-25.2	59-C -1	-1.7
10^o	173	5	4	0	1	7	8	52	0	0	-0.4	.150	.194	.200	-.646	.149	.193	.206	.023	-19.2	45-C -1	-1.5
Weighted Mean	261	12	9	0	2	19	14	71	0	0	-0.6	.168	.216	.236	-.519	.166	.215	.244	.138	-22.8	64-C -1	-1.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
25%	33%	56%	38%	1.25

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 26)	261	12	9	0	2	19	14	71	0	0	-0.6	.168	.216	.236	-.519	.166	.215	.244	.138	-22.8	64-C -1	-1.1
2010 (age 27)	257	12	8	0	3	18	14	70	0	0	-0.4	.175	.224	.245	-.508	.175	.225	.256	.148	-14.3	63-C -1	-0.6
2011 (age 28)	216	9	6	0	2	16	11	60	0	0	-0.3	.165	.214	.229	-.553	.165	.216	.239	.132	-10.8	54-C 0	-0.4
2012 (age 29)	215	10	8	0	2	16	11	59	0	0	-0.2	.176	.222	.254	-.500	.176	.223	.265	.151	-7.2	54-C 0	-0.3
2013 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.182	.233	.261
vs RHP	.165	.212	.229
Split	+.017	+.021	+.032
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-20.9	-1.0	-1.1	$400,000	-22.2	0.0
2010	-18.9	-1.0	-0.6	$400,000	-13.8	0.0
2011	-17.9	0.0	-0.4	$400,000	-10.0	0.0
2012	-15.5	0.0	-0.3	$400,000	-6.5	0.0
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.169	.134	.100	.138
2010	.194	.166	.128	.148
2011	.172	.141	.066	.132
2012	.183	.163	.095	.151
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	38%	0%	25%
2010	49%	31%	32%
2011	71%	52%	23%
2012	75%	58%	25%
2013	78%	71%	22%
2014	84%	76%	20%
2015	86%	85%	17%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

73

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Dave Toth	1996	77		11	Pedro Lopez	1995	60
2	Don Wakamatsu	1989	64		12	Ray Stephens	1988	60
3	Chris Curry	2004	64		13	Pedro Grifol	1996	59
4	Bill Dobrolsky	1996	64		14	Patrick Arlis	2007	59
5	Ken Rivers	1991	63		15	Ricky Wilson	1986	59
6	Mike DiFelice	1995	62		16	Everett Rey	1983	59
7	Tim Whittaker	2005	62		17	Kris Gresham	1996	58
8	Tony Defrancesco	1989	61		18	Mike Mahoney	1999	58
9	Brian Munhall	2006	61		19	Danny Massiatte	2004	58
10	Ryan Hubele	2006	60		20	Dax Norris	1998	58

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