Biographical

Portrait of Luke Hochevar

Luke Hochevar PRoyals

Royals Player Cards | Royals Team Audit | Royals Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 30)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
72.7 4.31 1.32 56 5 3 0 0.3
Birth Date9-15-1983
Height6' 5"
Weight225 lbs
Age31 years, 1 months, 7 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
1.22010
1.32011
0.82012
1.12013
0.32014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2007 KCA 23 4 1 12.7 3.0 9.7 0 1 0 0 0 0 54 11 4 3 1 17 4 4 3 5 2.13 5.21 5.22 1.0 0.1
2008 KCA 24 22 22 129.0 129.0 0.0 6 12 0 0 8 0 566 143 84 79 12 211 47 46 5 72 5.51 4.46 5.74 1.2 -0.1
2009 KCA 25 25 25 143.0 143.0 0.0 7 13 0 0 9 2 631 167 109 104 23 288 46 46 8 106 6.55 4.88 5.62 8.8 0.9
2010 KCA 26 18 17 103.0 100.0 3.0 6 6 0 0 8 2 450 110 61 55 9 169 37 36 4 76 4.81 3.90 4.66 12.1 1.2
2011 KCA 27 31 31 198.0 198.0 0.0 11 11 0 0 16 3 835 192 110 103 23 327 62 58 7 128 4.68 4.32 5.01 13.7 1.3
2012 KCA 28 32 32 185.3 185.3 0.0 8 16 0 0 13 2 800 202 127 118 27 339 61 58 13 144 5.73 4.58 5.33 6.0 0.8
2013 KCA 29 58 0 70.3 0.0 70.3 5 2 2 3 0 0 262 41 15 15 8 74 17 16 1 82 1.92 2.99 3.22 10.0 1.1
Career190128841.3758.383.043612354935988665104771031425274264416135.104.355.1252.85.3

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2006 BUR A 4 4 15.0 3.31 110 .195 .275 .354 .406 .240 .167 86 2.2 0.2 2.2 0.2
2007 KCA MLB 4 1 12.7 5.22 98 .253 .252 .318 .399 .253 .244 105 1.0 0.1 1.0 0.1
2007 WIC AA 17 16 94.0 4.39 110 .271 .266 .342 .412 .263 .348 105 13.4 1.4 13.4 1.4
2007 OMA AAA 10 10 58.0 6.08 82 .255 .279 .344 .438 .259 .253 106 3.4 0.3 3.4 0.3
2008 KCA MLB 22 22 129.0 5.74 81 .264 .267 .338 .427 .266 .305 103 1.5 0.2 1.2 -0.1
2008 OMA AAA 3 3 17.3 6.12 79 .198 .262 .338 .430 .249 .188 101 1.0 0.1 1.0 0.1
2009 KCA MLB 25 25 143.0 5.62 89 .285 .267 .333 .424 .260 .321 105 8.4 0.8 8.8 0.9
2009 OMA AAA 8 8 48.0 4.26 93 .228 .276 .341 .423 .278 .285 86 3.8 0.4 3.8 0.4
2010 KCA MLB 18 17 103.0 4.66 107 .258 .264 .332 .410 .258 .312 112 11.9 1.2 12.1 1.2
2010 OMA AAA 2 2 5.0 2.75 140 .157 .274 .350 .432 .270 .214 92 2.0 0.2 2.0 0.2
2011 KCA MLB 31 31 198.0 5.01 97 .253 .257 .321 .404 .261 .275 109 12.8 1.4 13.7 1.3
2012 KCA MLB 32 32 185.3 5.33 83 .283 .256 .321 .414 .263 .315 103 6.8 0.7 6.0 0.8
2013 KCA MLB 58 0 70.3 3.22 125 .198 .253 .317 .400 .265 .214 100 10.0 1.1 10.0 1.1

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2006 BUR A 0 1 0 4 4 15.0 8 2 16 2 39% .167 4.8 1.2 1.2 9.6 0.67 1.20 2.2 0.2
2007 WIC AA 3 6 0 17 16 94.0 110 26 94 13 40% .348 10.5 2.5 1.2 9.0 1.45 4.69 13.4 1.4
2007 KCA MLB 0 1 0 4 1 12.7 11 4 5 1 64% .244 7.8 2.8 0.7 3.6 1.18 2.13 1.0 0.1
2007 OMA AAA 1 3 0 10 10 58.0 53 21 44 11 41% .253 8.2 3.3 1.7 6.8 1.28 5.12 3.4 0.3
2008 KCA MLB 6 12 0 22 22 129.0 143 47 72 12 52% .305 10.0 3.3 0.8 5.0 1.47 5.51 1.2 -0.1
2008 OMA AAA 1 1 0 3 3 17.3 11 6 12 2 70% .188 5.7 3.1 1.0 6.2 0.98 2.60 1.0 0.1
2009 OMA AAA 5 1 0 8 8 48.0 41 12 36 2 63% .285 7.7 2.2 0.4 6.8 1.10 1.50 3.8 0.4
2009 KCA MLB 7 13 0 25 25 143.0 167 46 106 23 48% .321 10.5 2.9 1.4 6.7 1.49 6.55 8.8 0.9
2010 OMA AAA 0 0 0 2 2 5.0 3 1 4 0 43% .214 5.4 1.8 0.0 7.2 0.80 1.80 2.0 0.2
2010 KCA MLB 6 6 0 18 17 103.0 110 37 76 9 46% .312 9.6 3.2 0.8 6.6 1.43 4.81 12.1 1.2
2011 KCA MLB 11 11 0 31 31 198.0 192 62 128 23 51% .275 8.7 2.8 1.0 5.8 1.28 4.68 13.7 1.3
2012 KCA MLB 8 16 0 32 32 185.3 202 61 144 27 44% .315 9.8 3.0 1.3 7.0 1.42 5.73 6.0 0.8
2013 KCA MLB 5 2 2 58 0 70.3 41 17 82 8 36% .214 5.2 2.2 1.0 10.5 0.82 1.92 10.0 1.1

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 2046 0.4995 0.4488 0.8441 0.6419 0.2549 0.9131 0.6705 0.1549
2009 2319 0.5063 0.4678 0.8044 0.6269 0.3039 0.8940 0.6149 0.1937
2010 1528 0.5118 0.4678 0.7868 0.6317 0.2936 0.8745 0.5890 0.2118
2011 3072 0.5182 0.4550 0.8123 0.6168 0.2797 0.8890 0.6304 0.1870
2012 2995 0.5142 0.4492 0.7997 0.6240 0.2625 0.8689 0.6257 0.1988
2013 1043 0.5168 0.4947 0.7204 0.6531 0.3234 0.8182 0.5092 0.2777
Career130030.51130.45970.80260.62890.28130.88170.61830.1961

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-03-21 - 60-DL - - Right Elbow Recovery From Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2014-03-18 -
2014-03-05 2014-03-21 Camp 16 0 Right Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2014-03-18 -
2012-07-06 2012-07-14 DTD 8 4 Right Ankle Sprain - -
2012-04-14 2012-04-20 DTD 6 5 Left Ankle Contusion Batted Ball - -
2011-07-03 2011-07-03 DTD 0 0 Low Back Soreness -
2010-06-12 2010-09-03 60-DL 83 71 Right Elbow Strain -
2010-04-02 2010-04-02 Camp 0 0 Left Ankle Contusion Batted Ball -
2008-08-20 2008-09-28 60-DL 39 36 Right Trunk Contusion Rib Cage -
2006-10-26 2006-10-26 WIN 0 0 Right Shoulder Strain -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2014 KCA $5,210,000
2013 KCA $4,560,000
2012 KCA $3,510,000
2011 KCA $1,760,000
2010 KCA $1,760,000
2009 KCA $1,725,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
5 yrPrevious$13,315,000
2011Current$5,210,000
6 yrPvs + Cur$18,525,000
6 yrTotal$18,525,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
5 y 151 dScott Boras1 year/$5.21M (2014)

Details
  • 1 year/$5.21M (2014). Re-signed by Kansas City 1/17/14 (avoided arbitration). May earn additional $0.4M in performance bonuses.
  • 1 year/$4.56M (2013). Re-signed by Kansas City 1/18/13 (avoided arbitration). Performance bonuses.
  • 1 year/$3.51M (2012). Re-signed by Kansas City 1/17/12 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$1.76M (2011). Re-signed by Kansas City 1/12/11 (avoided arbitration). Award bonus: $50,000 for All-Star selection.
  • 1 year/$1.76M (2010). Re-signed by Kansas City 3/2/10 (maximum 20% cut from 2009 earnings of $2.2M, or $1.325M plus $0.875M pro-rated signing bonus).
  • 4 years/$5.3M (2006-09). Signed Major League contract with Kansas City 8/06. $3.5M signing bonus. Total value may increase to $7M based on making 25-man roster. 06:$0.4M (est.), 07:$0.575M (est), 08:$1.2M, 09:$1.325M. Optioned to Double-A 3/07, recalled 9/3/07. Optioned to Triple-A 3/23/08, recalled 4/20/08. Optioned to Triple-A 3/31/09, recalled 5/10/09, optioned to Triple-A 5/24/09, recalled 6/6/09.
  • Drafted by Kansas City 2006 (1-1) (Fort Worth independent league).
  • Drafted by LA Dodgers 2005 (1s-40) (University of Tennessee). Did not sign.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 5.8 3.8 0.2 23 13 89.9 76 23 70 9 .260 1.10 3.21 3.49 16.7 1.7
80o 5.3 3.8 0.2 21 12 83.9 76 22 65 9 .273 1.17 3.58 3.89 11.4 1.2
70o 4.9 3.8 0.2 20 12 79.6 76 22 62 9 .282 1.23 3.85 4.18 8.1 0.8
60o 4.6 3.8 0.2 19 11 76.1 75 22 59 9 .290 1.28 4.08 4.44 5.4 0.6
50o 4.3 3.7 0.2 18 11 72.8 74 22 56 9 .297 1.32 4.30 4.68 3.2 0.3
40o 4 3.7 0.2 18 10 69.6 74 22 54 9 .305 1.37 4.53 4.92 1.2 0.1
30o 3.8 3.6 0.1 17 10 66.2 73 22 51 9 .313 1.42 4.77 5.19 -0.8 -0.1
20o 3.4 3.6 0.1 16 9 62.4 72 21 48 9 .322 1.49 5.06 5.5 -2.7 -0.3
10o 3 3.5 0.1 14 8 57.1 70 21 44 8 .335 1.58 5.47 5.94 -5.0 -0.5
Weighted Mean4.33.70.2181172.37322569.2961.314.284.653.40.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
16% 39% 19% 15% 82%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20153121047050471537547.2791.253.814.158.52.76.70.90.5
20163231054057541843647.2791.263.784.118.52.86.80.90.6
20173331052055511741647.2781.233.593.918.32.86.71.00.7
20183421045048451533547.2781.263.754.088.52.86.20.90.5
20193521037039381228547.2841.284.034.388.82.86.51.20.3
20203621031033321124447.2811.294.064.428.63.06.51.10.2
2021371002502727919347.2941.334.174.549.03.06.31.00.1
2022381002402626818347.2911.324.194.569.12.86.31.10.1
2023391002002121714247.2911.354.264.639.13.06.10.90.1

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
33.536.929.126.323.418.6149.1

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 86)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 93 Jorge De La Rosa 2011 3.81
2 90 Sonny Siebert 1967 2.87
3 90 Frank Viola 1990 2.99
4 90 Boof Bonser 2012 0.00 DNP
5 90 Brett Myers 2011 4.83
6 89 Steve Carlton 1975 4.09 DNP
7 89 Bob Lemon 1951 4.03
8 89 John Montefusco 1980 4.84
9 89 Bob Welch 1987 3.36
10 89 Len Barker 1986 0.00 DNP
11 89 Mickey Lolich 1971 3.18
12 89 Chris Capuano 2009 0.00 DNP
13 89 John Tudor 1984 3.44
14 89 Mike Witt 1991 11.81
15 89 Pat Dobson 1972 2.99
16 89 Bert Blyleven 1981 2.94
17 88 Howie Pollet 1951 5.95
18 88 Luis Tiant 1971 5.23
19 88 Larry Christenson 1984 0.00 DNP
20 88 Frank Tanana 1984 4.27
21 88 Dennis Leonard 1981 3.53
22 88 Chris Short 1968 3.30
23 88 Andy Benes 1998 4.32
24 88 Milt Wilcox 1980 5.03
25 87 John Smiley 1995 3.67
26 87 Rick Sutcliffe 1986 4.69
27 87 Ervin Santana 2013 3.63
28 87 Dwight Gooden 1995 0.00 DNP
29 87 Mario Soto 1987 5.12
30 87 Don Newcombe 1956 3.39
31 87 John Candelaria 1984 3.35
32 86 John Patterson 2008 0.00 DNP
33 86 David Cone 1993 3.61
34 86 Hal Newhouser 1951 4.54
35 86 Harvey Haddix 1956 4.42
36 86 Billy Pierce 1957 3.40
37 86 Odalis Perez 2008 4.90
38 86 Carl Erskine 1957 3.68
39 86 Larry McWilliams 1984 3.40
40 86 Bobby Shantz 1956 4.74
41 86 Jim Bunning 1962 3.91 DNP
42 86 Bruce Hurst 1988 4.07
43 86 Ray Culp 1972 5.14
44 86 Orlando Pena 1964 5.13
45 86 Don Drysdale 1967 3.22
46 86 Dennis Eckersley 1985 3.24
47 86 Johnny Podres 1963 4.13
48 86 Shane Reynolds 1998 3.82
49 86 Saul Rogovin 1954 0.00 DNP
50 86 James Shields 2012 4.03
51 86 Ed Halicki 1981 0.00 DNP
52 85 Mike Smithson 1985 4.69
53 85 Andy McGaffigan 1987 2.77
54 85 Joe Hesketh 1989 6.33
55 85 Ron Reed 1973 5.49
56 85 Melido Perez 1996 0.00 DNP
57 85 Juan Pizarro 1967 4.56
58 85 Jose Guzman 1993 4.62
59 85 Ricky Nolasco 2013 4.06
60 85 Vida Blue 1980 3.17
61 85 Al Downing 1971 3.19
62 85 Rick Langford 1982 4.59
63 85 Glendon Rusch 2005 4.89
64 85 Mike Flanagan 1982 4.19
65 85 Chuck Porter 1985 5.27
66 85 Pascual Perez 1987 2.69
67 85 Jonathan Sanchez 2013 11.85
68 85 Casey Fossum 2008 5.66
69 85 Aaron Harang 2008 5.08
70 85 Mike Maroth 2008 0.00 DNP
71 85 Lee Stange 1967 3.12
72 85 Joel Pineiro 2009 3.91
73 85 Kevin Millwood 2005 3.38
74 85 Rudy May 1975 3.69 DNP
75 85 Kevin Tapani 1994 4.96
76 84 Bryn Smith 1986 4.85
77 84 Erik Hanson 1995 4.53
78 84 Nate Robertson 2008 6.62
79 84 Gil Meche 2009 5.65
80 84 Jimmy Key 1991 3.61
81 84 Alejandro Pena 1989 2.49
82 84 Ted Higuera 1988 2.61
83 84 Jim Lonborg 1972 3.03
84 84 Ian Snell 2012 0.00 DNP
85 84 Jack Kralick 1965 6.07
86 84 Jose Deleon 1991 3.10
87 84 La Marr Hoyt 1985 3.64
88 84 Manny Parra 2013 3.52
89 84 Rick Wise 1976 4.01
90 84 Mark Gubicza 1993 5.26
91 84 Danny Darwin 1986 3.95
92 84 Jim Kaat 1969 4.23
93 84 Jerry Koosman 1973 3.18
94 84 Sid Fernandez 1993 3.16
95 83 Kenny Rogers 1995 3.76
96 83 Rolando Arrojo 1999 5.37
97 83 Moose Haas 1986 2.86
98 83 Milt Pappas 1969 4.12
99 83 Denny Neagle 1999 4.35
100 83 Alex Fernandez 2000 4.30

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .265 .333 .444 .275
11 vs R (Multi) .222 .278 .382 .233
18 Split (Multi) .043 .056 .063 .042
19 LgAvg (Multi) .010 .024 .026 .019
30 vs L (2013) .198 .257 .349 .227
31 vs R (2013) .138 .194 .259 .163
38 Split (2013) .060 .064 .091 .063
39 LgAvg (2013) .010 .022 .028 .019

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 The inside joke in Kansas City is Hochevar is this close to turning the corner. Right. The Royals have been slow to admit that the only overall number-one draft pick in franchise history was a bust. Hochevar has become the poster boy for the organization’s inability to develop starting pitching. Pitching coach Dave Eiland thinks he has too many pitches in his repertoire and should eliminate his cut fastball. Would it surprise you to learn that was his best pitch last season? To put his horribleness in historical terms, Hochevar has the third-worst ERA of all time among starters who have thrown at least 750 innings in their career. That corner he's going to turn? It leads to either the bullpen or Triple-A. The sooner the Royals decide to move on, the better.
2012 Often, it just takes a little time before things click and fall into place. For Hochevar, the epiphany came at the All-Star Break when he decided to lean more on his best pitch—his slider—than before. At the same time, he adjusted the delivery of that pitch, slightly dropping his arm angle, which resulted in a tighter spin and a more effective pitch than previous incarnations. Now his slider release point mimics the release point of his sinker, making it difficult for opposing hitters to guess: will it dip or will it slide? Hochevar rode that deception to his finest stretch of starts as a professional, with a 3.52 ERA and 7.7 SO/9 over the season’s second half. The Royals will count on the former number one overall draft pick to replicate that success over a full year.
2011 Outside of allowing fewer long balls, Hochevar was basically the same pitcher he had been in 2009, but this time around his ERA came closer to reflecting his underlying performance. A right-elbow strain paused his season from mid-June until September, which qualified as a blow to the Royals' rotation given Hochevar's status as their second-best starter. Outside of designated ace Zack Greinke, he is the lone member of the rotation who can aspire to having an average day, which is why Ned Yost let Hochevar work through his struggles in innings where Trey Hillman might have yanked him. The most positive indicator from Hochevar's 2010 was a spike in velocity to nearly 93 mph—that extra gas may be just what he needs to help keep the ball in the park.
2010 As with Bannister, Hochevar went into exile at the end of spring training so the Royals could have their dalliance with Sir Sidney Ponson; Hochevar pitched well in the sticks and was back in mid-May. Getting a fix on the 2006 first overall draft pick remains difficult. He had some terrific starts, including an 80-pitch complete-game three-hitter against the Reds and a 13-strikeout, no-walk game against the Rangers. He also had just too many games where his line was destroyed by a single big inning: in his wins, Hochevar had an ERA of 2.49, against 10.88 in his losses, a larger-than-normal disparity. His ERA rose by the month, climaxing with a 9.38 for six September starts, but even amidst the devestation he pulled off a three-hit shutout of the White Sox. It should be said in Hochevar's defense that the Royals' indifferent fielding doesn't do his ground ball-oriented approach any favors, but that's small consolation given the 2006 first-rounders the Royals could have picked: Evan Longoria (#3), Clayton Kershaw (#7), Tim Lincecum (#10), Max Scherzer (#11), and so on.
2009 The first full major league season for the top pick in the 2006 draft was something of a dud. Still, it looked worse than it was: before suffering a rib-cage contusion in late August that ended his season, Hochevar reduced his home-run rate, and his overall numbers would have been better if not for poor timing—opponents hit .338 with runners in scoring position, as compared to .245 with nobody on. It wasn't a good enough performance to guarantee a 2009 rotation berth, as he'll have to battle Horacio Ramirez for the fifth spot.
2008 A first-round pick really shouldn't be written off as a bust after striking out nearly three times as many hitters as he walked in the high minors and making his major league debut in his first full professional season. Unfortunately, Hochevar is criticized not for who he is, but for who he isn't. The Royals drafted Hochevar when they could (and should, as people said at the time) have drafted Andrew Miller or Tim Lincecum, to say nothing of Joba Chamberlain or even high schooler Clayton Kershaw. Hochevar should settle in as a consistent, if homer-prone, number-three starter. The Royals could have done worse, but they should have done better.
2007 Most scouts felt that Andrew Miller was a better prospect than Hochevar on draft day, although Hochevar was a clear number-two to most draft experts. You have to hope the Royals weren`t lying when they claimed they drafted Hochevar based purely on merit rather than his signability, given that Miller (drafted sixth overall by the Tigers) signed literally the day after Hochevar, and for about two percent more money. Hochevar dominated the Midwest League, then made two starts in the Texas League playoffs, one good, one bad. He threw eight ineffective innings in the AFL before his season ended with a minor shoulder strain. Despite his much-publicized draft drama from 2005, Hochevar gets high marks for his work ethic and dedication to the game. It will be a disappointment to the Royals if he doesn`t crack their rotation at some point this year.

BP Articles

Luke Hochevar is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 9, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-09-09
The Lineup Card: Seven Unsigned Top Draft PicksBaseball Prospectus2014-07-24
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The Lineup Card: 11 Draft Day What-IfsBaseball Prospectus2014-06-04
The Lineup Card: 11 Spring Training Performances We Sort of Believe InBaseball Prospectus2014-03-19
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessMock Auction Analysis: AL- and NL-Only Mike Gianella2014-02-20
This article requires BP Premium accessPebble Hunting: The Importance of Top Prospect TrajectoriesSam Miller2014-02-12
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Team Preview: Kansas City RoyalsCraig Goldstein2013-11-25
The Week in Quotes: November 11-17Satchel Price2013-11-18
The Week in Quotes: November 11-17Nick Bacarella2013-11-18
The Week in Quotes: November 11-17Chris Mosch2013-11-18
The Week in Quotes: November 11-17Andrew Koo2013-11-18
Baseball ProGUESTus: Pitch Types and the Times Through the Order PenaltyMitchel Lichtman2013-11-15
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Nothing Quiet on the Wild Card FrontDaniel Rathman2013-09-18
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Almost PerfectDaniel Rathman2013-09-17
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Looking AheadMike Gianella2013-09-12
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Examining TrendsMike Gianella2013-09-05
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 29, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-29
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: An Ugly Outing for FelixDaniel Rathman2013-08-29
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 26, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-26
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Mo Moves DownMike Gianella2013-08-15
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This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 9, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-09
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Meeting the CriteriaMike Gianella2013-08-08
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Deadline FalloutMike Gianella2013-08-01
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Trade Winds BlowingMike Gianella2013-07-18
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Going DownhillMike Gianella2013-07-11
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe Top 50 Fantasy Prospects: Midseason UpdateBret Sayre2013-07-08
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFive to Watch: Checking in on the Holy TrinityBret Sayre2013-06-07
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Diamondbacks Settle on BellMike Gianella2013-05-16
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 14th, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-14
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Fantasy Mailbag: Much Ado About PitchingBP Fantasy Staff2013-03-29
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The BP Wayback Machine: Do Spring Speeds Matter?Mike Fast2013-03-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: 4x4 Versus 5x5Mike Gianella2013-03-15
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Royally FlushedDaniel Rathman2013-03-14
BP Unfiltered: Hochevar Heads to the BullpenR.J. Anderson2013-03-13
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Wednesday, February 6Daniel Rathman2013-02-06
This article requires BP Premium accessSkewed Left: The Sunk Costs of 2013Zachary Levine2013-01-30
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On the Beat: Moore ProblemsJohn Perrotto2012-12-13
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2013-07-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)HOF-types Maddux, Glavine, Pedro, RJohnson and a few others all struggled in their first few major league seasons. How aberrant is to see the immediate success of recent young pitchers (such as Harvey, SMiller, and Fernandez this year and perhaps Kershaw, Lincecum, Felix, C.Sale and Straus in previous years)? Is it that "stuff" predominates, or the guys pick up sequencing earlier (whether on own or with team's "coaching")?
(tullythomas from (Balt Memial Stadium Bleachers))
Very good point about stuff dominating this era of high strikeout rates. That said, we're looking at a snapshot. Dwight Gooden was really good when he came up, you just don't mention him because we have the hindsight now not to include him in the HOF crop. There's a chance that at Luke Hochevar's induction, we'll say that he struggled early in his career too.

(Snark aside, I think it's probably what you said about pitchers coming up now with such good stuff.) (Zachary Levine)
2013-03-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Luke Hochevar is in the bullpen. One step closer to the stands or is he the Judd Apatow of pitching? (Only good in small doses.) Does his stuff get better or worse?
(Tyler Drenon from TheDoubleday.com)
Another Royals question for Tyler :) Pitchers usually do better in relief (see Tom Tango's Rule of 17) with the assumption they learn how to get ready for a game quickly, instead of having all sorts of time to get ready before a start. His stuff is his stuff, but he may add a couple MPH if he adapts physically to the role change (and you should expect him to). (Harry Pavlidis)
2012-11-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)What's wrong with Mike Montgomery? Do you think he will ever be able to make it in the majors as a SP?
(Nils from Stamford)
Well, we're talking about the team of Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar here. You don't necessarily have to to be a good pitcher to be a Royals pitcher for a long time. So I'll say that he makes it in the sense that he is a major-league starter for a while, but not necessarily a good one. For that, you'll have to wait for the Royals prospect list, which will be out soon.

Since that wasn't a very satisfying answer, I'm just going to pretend you asked about Mark Montgomery instead. In which case: Nothing! Nothing is wrong with Mark Montgomery. (I really like Mark Montgomery, mostly because he reminds me of David Robertson.) (Ben Lindbergh)
2012-04-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Chances that both AL wild cards come out of the East? How long before KC has a legit shot in the Central?
(cooldude from Mpls)
I think it's certainly possible, the Red Sox slow start notwithstanding. Even so, I wouldn't count the second place team in the AL West, either the Angels or the Rangers, out of the running at all. Both teams have a good deal of talent and depth.

As for the Royals, I'd guess that 2014 is realistic. Right now, I simply don't see the starting pitching they need to compete; at best maybe Bruce Chen and Luke Hochevar (who took a step forward in the second half last year) are league average - where is the rest of that help going to come from? They'll need to sign outside free agents or make trades in order to fortify their starting five. (Jay Jaffe)
2012-03-15 12:00:00 (link to chat)What's your take on the 2012 Royals?
(Ryan Glass from The District)
It comes down to their pitching. I can see their young position players taking steps forward, but that rotation needs to carry its weight, too. If Luke Hochevar and Danny Duffy can improve and Felipe Paulino continues to pitch like he did with KC last season then that team looks a lot better than it does now. (R.J. Anderson)
2009-04-13 14:00:00 (link to chat)Sheehan's silly little Opening Day screed notwithstanding, Hillman has managed KC's bullpen fairly well the past five games. How far can a strong pen (assuming Farnsworth isn't over-extended and HoRam is moved out of the rotation) and the trio of Meche-Greinke-Davies carry that team, given that scoring 500 runs this year seems like a pipe dream some days?
(BL from Bozeman)
Forget the bullpen for a moment. Given that Ramirez and Ponson are both in the rotation to start the year while a healthy Luke Hochevar rots in Triple-A, I question Hillman's qualifications to manage a major league club. That's malpractice right there.

Needless to say, i'm a take-the-under guy when it comes to the Royals. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-03-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)Whats the deal with Luke Hochevar? As a Royals fan, should I start worrying?
(Will from iowa)
I said before that the mental aspect of the game is immense for pitchers, and mutliple scouts pointed at Hochevar's condifence (or lack thereof) as one of the key components to his dissapointing 2007 season. The stuff for him to be a successfull big league starter is there, the rest might be up to him. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-01-29 16:00:00 (link to chat)Rany, is Luke Hochevar going to be a bust in relative terms to the #1 overall pick?
(ajblobaum from Lawrence, KS)
"Bust" is too strong a term. He's going to be less valuable than your typical #1 pick, simply because your average #1 pick includes the Griffeys and A-Rods of the world. I think he's going to be a #3 starter, maybe #2 in a good year. Would he go #1 if the Royals drafted today? No. But the only clearly better player the Royals passed on at the time was Andrew Miller, and even today it's not clear that Miller's the better player. Joba Chamberlain or Tim Lincecum, sure, but few people were arguing that at the time. (Although our own Kevin Goldstein thought the Royals should have taken Lincecum.) (Rany Jazayerli)


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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2014, Luke Hochevar threw 13,769 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2007 and 2013, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and Spring Training. In 2013, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (96mph) and Cutter (91mph), also mixing in a Curve (80mph) and Sinker (96mph). He also rarely threw a Change (88mph).