John Hester

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	MSO	Rk	227	36	16	4	6	41	27	52	6	2	-2.7	.271	.370	.490	-.473	.163	.225	.288	.171	-42.4	44-C -6	-2.7
2007	VIS	A+	320	38	16	1	10	43	22	64	4	2	-6.3	.263	.316	.424	-.445	.185	.226	.300	.174	-30.6	58-C -5	-2.4
2008	MOB	AA	331	38	26	2	11	49	16	78	3	2	-0.6	.268	.302	.474	-.291	.215	.242	.381	.214	-17.3	75-C -2	-0.6

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 12:32 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	418	41	25	2	12	47	28	114	3	1	-1.5	.232	.286	.402	-.201	.226	.279	.392	.229	-3.4	99-C -5	0.9
75^o	392	33	22	2	10	41	25	111	3	1	-1.4	.215	.267	.368	-.288	.210	.262	.359	.211	-11.0	94-C -4	0.1
60^o	372	28	19	1	9	37	22	109	3	1	-1.3	.203	.254	.343	-.351	.198	.248	.334	.196	-15.9	89-C -4	-0.4
50^o	360	25	18	1	8	34	21	107	2	1	-1.2	.196	.247	.329	-.386	.191	.241	.321	.187	-18.3	87-C -3	-0.6
40^o	348	23	17	1	7	32	20	105	2	1	-1.1	.190	.239	.316	-.419	.185	.234	.308	.179	-20.4	84-C -3	-0.9
25^o	327	19	15	1	6	28	18	102	2	1	-1.0	.180	.228	.294	-.473	.175	.223	.287	.163	-23.2	79-C -2	-1.2
10^o	261	11	10	1	3	17	13	89	2	1	-0.7	.155	.199	.242	-.603	.151	.195	.236	.114	-26.3	64-C -1	-1.7
Weighted Mean	377	27	19	1	8	38	22	112	3	1	-1.1	.197	.247	.330	-.342	.192	.242	.322	.188	-15.7	90-C -4	-0.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
28%	46%	37%	22%	1.13

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 25)	377	27	19	1	8	38	22	112	3	1	-1.1	.197	.247	.330	-.342	.192	.242	.322	.188	-15.7	90-C -4	-0.5
2010 (age 26)	324	23	16	1	8	33	20	93	2	1	-0.7	.200	.253	.341	-.370	.192	.244	.329	.195	-9.9	78-C -4	-0.2
2011 (age 27)	358	29	18	1	10	39	23	104	2	1	-0.5	.208	.263	.358	-.326	.199	.254	.345	.206	-5.4	86-C -5	0.0
2012 (age 28)	272	19	13	1	7	27	19	76	2	1	-0.3	.206	.265	.350	-.335	.198	.255	.337	.203	-3.7	67-C -4	0.0
2013 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.214	.268	.357
vs RHP	.193	.240	.317
Split	+.021	+.028	+.040
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-18.5	-4.0	-0.5	$400,000	-18.2	0.0
2010	-14.0	-4.0	-0.2	$400,000	-12.2	0.0
2011	-12.1	-5.0	0.0	$400,000	-6.8	0.0
2012	-9.7	-4.0	0.0	$400,000	-4.7	0.2
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	$25,000	0.0	0.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.211	.187	.163	.188
2010	.221	.193	.174	.195
2011	.230	.206	.175	.206
2012	.233	.207	.170	.203
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	22%	0%	28%
2010	53%	27%	28%
2011	62%	52%	32%
2012	78%	62%	30%
2013	77%	71%	27%
2014	88%	76%	21%
2015	96%	89%	18%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

70

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Jeff Banister	1990	67		11	Brad Cresse	2004	60
2	Eli Whiteside	2005	64		12	Alvin Colina	2007	60
3	Stine Poole	1984	63		13	Brian Dorsett	1987	59
4	David Heath	1986	63		14	Harold Hatcher	1985	59
5	John Eccles	1990	63		15	Craig Faulkner	1991	58
6	Jason Dewey	2003	62		16	Javier Gonzalez	1994	58
7	Jeff Hooper	1990	62		17	Yohanny Valera	2002	57
8	Chris Howard	1991	61		18	Peter Kuld	1992	56
9	Russ McGinnis	1989	61		19	Dan Dimascio	1990	55
10	Bubba Holland	1984	61		20	Joe Depastino	1999	54

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