Javi Herrera

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	KIN	A+	200	24	13	0	1	24	21	27	0	2	-2.8	.286	.392	.381	-.307	.217	.290	.300	.208	-10.5	48-C 0	-0.2
2006	AKR	AA	170	15	7	0	3	11	8	33	3	0	-0.3	.207	.274	.313	-.504	.173	.223	.263	.166	-18.0	45-C -2	-1.1
2007	HAR	AA	141	17	4	0	4	17	23	16	1	2	0.0	.257	.390	.398	-.228	.202	.317	.328	.234	-4.5	36-C 0	0.2
2007	AKR	AA	61	2	1	0	0	6	2	10	0	0	0.4	.167	.213	.185	-.791	.125	.164	.143	.000	-11.2	17-C -2	-0.9
2008	HAR	AA	145	27	7	0	1	7	25	23	3	2	-1.7	.264	.426	.355	-.277	.197	.333	.265	.224	-6.4	37-C 0	0.1
2008	COH	AAA	116	10	4	1	2	15	14	29	2	1	0.1	.260	.362	.380	-.181	.228	.322	.347	.236	-2.1	29-C 0	0.2

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:18 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	308	34	15	1	6	31	34	63	3	1	-0.7	.241	.336	.378	-.079	.245	.339	.395	.258	6.8	75-C 0	1.9
75^o	298	29	14	1	5	28	31	63	3	1	-0.6	.225	.318	.348	-.162	.228	.320	.364	.242	0.8	73-C 0	1.3
60^o	286	24	12	1	4	25	28	63	2	1	-0.6	.206	.296	.313	-.262	.209	.298	.327	.222	-5.9	70-C 1	0.7
50^o	282	22	11	1	4	23	27	63	2	1	-0.6	.200	.289	.301	-.294	.202	.291	.315	.214	-7.9	69-C 1	0.5
40^o	274	20	10	0	4	21	26	62	2	1	-0.5	.188	.275	.280	-.353	.191	.278	.292	.200	-11.5	67-C 1	0.2
25^o	261	16	9	0	3	18	23	62	2	1	-0.5	.172	.256	.250	-.437	.174	.258	.261	.179	-16.1	64-C 1	-0.3
10^o	243	12	7	0	2	15	20	61	2	1	-0.4	.153	.234	.216	-.532	.156	.236	.226	.149	-20.4	60-C 2	-0.8
Weighted Mean	277	21	11	1	4	23	27	62	2	1	-0.5	.197	.286	.296	-.315	.200	.288	.309	.211	-7.2	68-C 1	0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
45%	59%	27%	31%	1.20

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 27)	277	21	11	1	4	23	27	62	2	1	-0.5	.197	.286	.296	-.315	.200	.288	.309	.211	-7.2	68-C 1	0.6
2010 (age 28)	264	19	11	1	4	22	23	60	2	1	-0.4	.188	.270	.288	-.367	.188	.268	.297	.199	-8.5	65-C 1	0.3
2011 (age 29)	239	16	10	1	3	19	22	56	2	1	-0.3	.189	.276	.287	-.355	.189	.275	.296	.203	-6.2	59-C 2	0.3
2012 (age 30)	240	17	10	0	4	19	22	56	2	1	-0.2	.198	.285	.301	-.316	.198	.283	.310	.211	-3.8	60-C 3	0.5
2013 (age 31)	183	12	7	0	3	15	18	39	1	0	-0.1	.208	.296	.308	-.281	.207	.294	.318	.219	-1.7	47-C 0	0.3
2014 (age 32)	205	14	8	0	3	18	19	39	1	1	-0.1	.201	.289	.303	-.304	.201	.288	.313	.214	-1.7	52-C 1	0.3
2015 (age 33)	219	18	10	1	4	22	20	45	2	1	-0.1	.222	.303	.351	-.204	.222	.301	.362	.236	0.0	55-C 0	0.3

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.213	.303	.324
vs RHP	.193	.279	.285
Split	+.020	+.024	+.039
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-6.2	1.0	0.6	$400,000	-7.4	0.7
2010	-8.6	1.0	0.3	$400,000	-8.4	1.9
2011	-7.1	2.0	0.3	$400,000	-6.1	0.8
2012	-5.2	3.0	0.5	$875,000	-2.2	1.9
2013	-2.6	0.0	0.3	$775,000	-1.6	0.8
2014	-3.9	1.0	0.3	$825,000	-1.1	0.3
2015	0.4	0.0	0.3	$950,000	0.0	0.8
Peak			2.2	$1,775,000	0.0	6.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.242	.214	.179	.211
2010	.234	.208	.175	.199
2011	.235	.209	.181	.203
2012	.239	.218	.197	.211
2013	.251	.228	.198	.219
2014	.246	.223	.161	.214
2015	.264	.241	.219	.236

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	31%	0%	45%
2010	50%	19%	33%
2011	60%	32%	30%
2012	71%	47%	35%
2013	85%	61%	31%
2014	85%	67%	31%
2015	92%	81%	31%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

59

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Eric Christopherson	1997	62		11	John Gibbons	1990	46
2	Matt Treanor	2003	51		12	Brian Loyd	2001	45
3	John Orton	1993	50		13	Pat Corrales	1968	45
4	Nick Trzesniak	2008	49		14	Doug Gwosdz	1988	44
5	Tom Nieto	1988	49		15	Danny Ardoin	2002	43
6	Eric Helfand	1996	49		16	Mike O'Berry	1982	43
7	David Parrish	2007	48		17	Carl Nichols	1990	43
8	Dan Cholowsky	1998	48		18	Scooter Tucker	1994	43
9	Charlie O'Brien	1988	48		19	Mike Ryan	1969	42
10	Bill McGuire	1991	46		20	John Christensen	1988	41

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