Francisco Hernandez

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 11:32 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	341	36	19	1	5	37	25	50	2	1	-0.5	.263	.321	.379	-.095	.260	.320	.383	.250	3.9	82-C 2	2.5
75^o	315	28	16	0	4	31	21	48	1	1	-0.4	.244	.299	.343	-.193	.241	.298	.346	.229	-3.7	76-C 1	1.8
60^o	301	24	14	0	3	28	19	46	1	1	-0.4	.234	.288	.325	-.243	.231	.287	.328	.218	-7.1	73-C 1	1.4
50^o	291	22	13	0	3	26	18	45	1	1	-0.3	.227	.280	.312	-.277	.225	.279	.315	.210	-9.2	71-C 1	1.1
40^o	279	19	12	0	3	23	17	44	1	1	-0.3	.220	.271	.298	-.317	.217	.270	.300	.200	-11.5	68-C 1	0.9
25^o	262	16	10	0	2	20	15	42	1	1	-0.3	.210	.259	.279	-.368	.207	.258	.281	.186	-14.0	65-C 1	0.6
10^o	231	11	8	0	1	15	12	39	1	1	-0.2	.193	.239	.248	-.452	.191	.238	.250	.161	-16.9	57-C 1	0.1
Weighted Mean	299	23	13	0	3	26	19	46	1	1	-0.3	.230	.283	.317	-.266	.227	.281	.319	.212	-8.5	73-C 2	1.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
30%	50%	28%	19%	0.90

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 22)	299	23	13	0	3	26	19	46	1	1	-0.3	.230	.283	.317	-.266	.227	.281	.319	.212	-8.5	73-C 2	1.7
2009 (age 23)	305	27	15	0	5	28	21	46	1	1	-0.3	.239	.295	.346	-.200	.240	.298	.356	.227	-3.1	74-C 1	1.4
2010 (age 24)	272	24	13	0	4	27	19	38	1	1	-0.3	.249	.305	.357	-.161	.250	.309	.367	.235	-0.7	67-C -1	1.1
2011 (age 25)	245	20	12	0	5	26	17	33	1	1	-0.2	.242	.300	.359	-.173	.243	.303	.369	.233	-0.9	61-C -1	0.8
2012 (age 26)	318	33	14	1	7	34	24	45	1	1	-0.2	.251	.312	.378	-.121	.252	.315	.389	.244	0.6	77-C -1	0.9
2013 (age 27)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 28)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.228	.272	.306
vs RHP	.230	.287	.322
Split	-.002	-.015	-.016
LgAvg	+.004	-.004	+.007

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	-0.4	2.0	1.7	$1,800,000	-5.2	0.7
2009	0.0	1.4	1.4	$1,600,000	-0.9	4.2
2010	0.1	1.0	1.1	$1,300,000	-0.6	4.4
2011	0.1	0.8	0.8	$1,050,000	-0.2	2.8
2012	0.2	0.7	0.9	$1,575,000	1.7	4.4
2013	0.1	0.4	0.6	$875,000	0.2	1.5
2014	0.2	0.6	0.8	$1,600,000	2.0	3.9
Peak			6.5	$4,925,000	5.9	21.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.229	.210	.186	.212
2009	.244	.216	.194	.227
2010	.253	.229	.204	.235
2011	.239	.223	.201	.233
2012	.251	.234	.209	.244
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	19%	0%	30%
2009	30%	20%	37%
2010	41%	33%	43%
2011	63%	46%	41%
2012	67%	59%	43%
2013	78%	67%	42%
2014	81%	67%	37%

44

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Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Omar Fuentes	1992	40		11	Felix Molina	2003	33
2	Victor Martinez	1979	36		12	Guillermo Garcia	1971	33
3	Mitch Meluskey	1981	36		13	Jose Nunez	1982	33
4	Hector Gimenez	1970	36		14	Brayan Pena	1960	33
5	Cesar Devarez	1973	35		15	Gabriel Gutierrez	2007	32
6	Wil Nieves	1992	35		16	Tony Granadillo	1975	32
7	Miguel Montero	1975	34		17	Jorge Delgado	1969	32
8	Wiki Gonzalez	1975	34		18	Troy Fortin	2000	31
9	Brian Luderer	1957	34		19	Phil Avlas	1979	30
10	Wilkin Castillo	1998	33		20	Jose Lobaton	2005	30

Player Comments

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2007

Francisco Hernandez is probably the best prospect listed in this paragraph due to his youth and defensive abilities, but his bat has failed to progress after a promising 250-PA stretch at Great Falls in the first half of 2005.

2006

On the plus side, Hernandez was just 19, and both the scouts and our numbers suggest that he could be a premium defensive catcher. On the negative side, he`s very small, very slow, and hit an empty .222 against Sally League pitching. Did we mention that he was just 19?

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	GRF	0R	237	37	19	0	6	34	19	25	0	1	-0.3	.349	.405	.524	.351	.249	.288	.344	.218	-8.9	37-C 5	1.3
2005	KAN	1B	171	15	5	0	3	18	13	29	0	0	-0.1	.222	.292	.314	-.188	.171	.222	.234	.145	-19.9	39-C 3	0.2
2006	KAN	1B	351	29	16	1	6	34	22	31	3	1	-0.9	.247	.305	.361	-.056	.233	.275	.331	.212	-13.2	86-C 3	2.0
2007	KAN	1B	310	42	23	1	4	36	35	29	0	1	-1.2	.277	.362	.413	.073	.225	.297	.332	.219	-7.8	66-C -3	1.2

Historical Stats