Biographical

Portrait of J.J. Hardy

J.J. Hardy SSOrioles

Orioles Player Cards | Orioles Team Audit | Orioles Depth Chart

2014 Rest-of-Season Projections (seasonal age 31)
PA AVG HR R RBI SB TAv WARP
4 .250 0 0 0 0 .252 0.0
Birth Date8-19-1982
Height6' 1"
Weight190 lbs
Age32 years, 2 months, 5 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
1.42010
4.02011
3.12012
1.52013
2.22014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR TB BB SO HBP SF SH RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2005 MIL 22 124 427 372 46 92 22 1 9 143 44 48 1 2 8 50 0 0 .247 .327 .384 .247 12.6 -6.2 0.6
2006 MIL 23 35 139 128 13 31 5 0 5 51 10 23 0 1 0 14 1 1 .242 .295 .398 .238 0.4 1.1 0.1
2007 MIL 24 151 638 592 89 164 30 1 26 274 40 73 1 1 4 80 2 3 .277 .323 .463 .254 21.0 1.9 2.2
2008 MIL 25 146 629 569 78 161 31 4 24 272 52 98 1 2 5 74 2 1 .283 .343 .478 .280 36.7 7.9 4.5
2009 MIL 26 115 465 414 53 95 16 2 11 148 43 85 2 5 1 47 0 1 .229 .302 .357 .231 9.4 3.8 1.3
2010 MIN 27 101 375 340 44 91 19 3 6 134 28 54 0 4 3 38 1 1 .268 .320 .394 .251 12.1 1.8 1.4
2011 BAL 28 129 567 527 76 142 27 0 30 259 31 92 2 5 2 80 0 0 .269 .310 .491 .272 29.2 8.1 4.0
2012 BAL 29 158 713 663 85 158 30 2 22 258 38 106 3 2 7 68 0 0 .238 .282 .389 .229 8.6 21.0 3.1
2013 BAL 30 159 644 601 66 158 27 0 25 260 38 73 0 2 3 76 2 1 .263 .306 .433 .268 26.2 -12.6 1.5
2014 BAL 31 141 569 529 56 142 28 0 9 197 29 104 4 4 3 52 0 0 .268 .309 .372 .255 20.0 -0.0 2.2
Career125951664735606123423513167199635375614283657988.261.312.422.254176.126.621.1

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G PA TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP BPF BRAA repLVL POS_ADJ FRAA BRR BVORP BWARP VORP WARP
2001 OGD Rk 35 144 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .254 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2002 HDS A+ 84 364 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .313 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2002 HUN AA 38 160 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .248 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2003 HUN AA 114 485 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .294 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2004 IND AAA 26 112 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .270 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 MIL MLB 124 427 .247 .261 .328 .417 .258 .262 100 -5.9 12.3 5.6 -6.2 -0.4 12.6 0.6 12.6 0.6
2006 MIL MLB 35 139 .238 .270 .333 .443 .268 .257 92 -3.4 4.2 1.9 1.1 -1.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1
2007 MIL MLB 151 638 .254 .270 .334 .436 .263 .279 104 -4 18.9 8.7 1.9 -2.6 21.0 2.2 21.0 2.2
2008 MIL MLB 146 629 .280 .261 .329 .416 .261 .305 100 13.3 18.2 8.3 7.9 -0.4 36.7 4.5 36.7 4.5
2009 MIL MLB 115 465 .231 .263 .332 .418 .264 .260 98 -14.2 13.4 6.1 3.8 0.9 9.4 1.3 9.4 1.3
2009 NAS AAA 18 74 .262 .264 .335 .421 .275 .241 93 0.2 2.2 1 -1.0 -0.4 2.7 0.2 2.7 0.2
2010 MIN MLB 101 375 .251 .258 .324 .401 .253 .299 109 -3.5 10.3 4.8 1.8 -0.3 12.1 1.4 12.1 1.4
2010 BLT A 3 12 .183 .251 .338 .372 .251 .250 104 -0.9 0.3 0.1 -0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.1 -0.6 -0.1
2011 BAL MLB 129 567 .272 .252 .316 .397 .257 .273 105 6.8 15.3 7 8.1 1.5 29.2 4.0 29.2 4.0
2011 NOR AAA 3 12 .265 .273 .348 .421 .270 .250 91 0.1 0.4 0 0.0 -0.0 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.1
2012 BAL MLB 158 713 .229 .253 .314 .409 .259 .253 104 -21.5 19.5 9 21.0 0.9 8.6 3.1 8.6 3.1
2013 BAL MLB 159 644 .268 .257 .319 .411 .268 .263 99 4.7 16.9 7.8 -12.6 -3.8 26.2 1.5 26.2 1.5
2014 BAL MLB 141 569 .255 .251 .309 .390 .261 .317 100 -2.5 14.7 6.8 -0.0 -0.9 20.0 2.2 20.0 2.2

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG ISO TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2001 OGD Rk 144 20 31 5 0 2 15 15 12 1 2 .248 .322 .336 .088 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2002 HUN AA 160 14 33 7 0 1 13 9 19 1 2 .228 .266 .297 .069 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2002 HDS A+ 364 53 98 19 1 6 48 19 38 9 3 .293 .330 .409 .116 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2003 HUN AA 485 67 116 26 0 12 62 58 54 6 4 .279 .368 .428 .149 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2004 IND AAA 112 17 28 10 0 4 20 9 8 0 0 .277 .336 .495 .218 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 MIL MLB 427 46 92 22 1 9 50 44 48 0 0 .247 .327 .384 .137 .247 12.6 -6.2 0.6
2006 MIL MLB 139 13 31 5 0 5 14 10 23 1 1 .242 .295 .398 .156 .238 0.4 1.1 0.1
2007 MIL MLB 638 89 164 30 1 26 80 40 73 2 3 .277 .323 .463 .186 .254 21.0 1.9 2.2
2008 MIL MLB 629 78 161 31 4 24 74 52 98 2 1 .283 .343 .478 .195 .280 36.7 7.9 4.5
2009 NAS AAA 74 7 18 2 0 4 12 3 9 0 0 .254 .284 .451 .197 .262 2.7 -1.0 0.2
2009 MIL MLB 465 53 95 16 2 11 47 43 85 0 1 .229 .302 .357 .128 .231 9.4 3.8 1.3
2010 BLT A 12 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 .200 .333 .200 .000 .183 -0.6 -0.0 -0.1
2010 MIN MLB 375 44 91 19 3 6 38 28 54 1 1 .268 .320 .394 .126 .251 12.1 1.8 1.4
2011 BAL MLB 567 76 142 27 0 30 80 31 92 0 0 .269 .310 .491 .222 .272 29.2 8.1 4.0
2011 NOR AAA 12 2 2 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 .222 .417 .222 .000 .265 0.5 0.0 0.1
2012 BAL MLB 713 85 158 30 2 22 68 38 106 0 0 .238 .282 .389 .151 .229 8.6 21.0 3.1
2013 BAL MLB 644 66 158 27 0 25 76 38 73 2 1 .263 .306 .433 .170 .268 26.2 -12.6 1.5
2014 BAL MLB 569 56 142 28 0 9 52 29 104 0 0 .268 .309 .372 .104 .255 20.0 -0.0 2.2

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 2366 0.5165 0.4116 0.8335 0.5622 0.2500 0.8981 0.6783 0.1665
2009 1828 0.5060 0.3801 0.8127 0.4962 0.2602 0.9129 0.6170 0.1873
2010 1393 0.5341 0.3905 0.8603 0.4987 0.2666 0.9164 0.7399 0.1397
2011 2145 0.5366 0.4212 0.8594 0.5300 0.2948 0.9230 0.7270 0.1406
2012 2784 0.5233 0.4085 0.8776 0.5209 0.2841 0.9354 0.7613 0.1224
2013 2395 0.5194 0.4171 0.8779 0.5410 0.2832 0.9346 0.7607 0.1221
2014 2221 0.5335 0.3977 0.8154 0.5013 0.2790 0.9259 0.5882 0.1846
Career151320.52390.40550.84960.52390.27490.92180.69860.1504

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-09-06 2014-09-12 DTD 6 5 - Low Back Spasms -
2014-09-02 2014-09-02 DTD 0 0 - Low Back Tightness -
2014-08-10 2014-08-15 DTD 5 3 Left Thumb Sprain -
2014-04-21 2014-04-23 DTD 2 2 Right Thigh Strain Hamstring - -
2014-04-06 2014-04-12 DTD 6 5 - Low Back Spasms - -
2014-04-04 2014-04-05 DTD 1 1 - Low Back Spasms - -
2013-08-17 2013-08-19 DTD 2 2 - Low Back Spasms - -
2013-05-08 2013-05-08 DTD 0 0 - Elbow Inflammation Lateral Epicondylitis - -
2012-07-26 2012-07-26 DTD 0 0 - Trunk Contusion Ribs HBP - -
2012-05-23 2012-05-25 DTD 2 1 Right Shoulder Soreness - -
2012-03-27 2012-03-30 Camp 3 0 Right Shoulder Inflammation Injection - -
2012-03-22 2012-03-24 Camp 2 0 Right Arm Soreness - -
2011-08-05 2011-08-08 DTD 3 3 Left Ankle Soreness - -
2011-04-10 2011-05-10 15-DL 30 25 Left Abdomen Strain Oblique In Different Place -
2011-04-07 2011-04-09 DTD 2 1 Left Abdomen Soreness Oblique -
2010-09-26 2010-09-30 DTD 4 4 Knee Soreness -
2010-08-12 2010-08-17 DTD 5 4 Left Wrist Soreness -
2010-06-07 2010-07-03 15-DL 26 23 Left Wrist Contusion -
2010-06-05 2010-06-06 DTD 1 1 Left Wrist Soreness -
2010-05-05 2010-05-25 15-DL 20 17 Left Wrist Sprain -
2010-04-29 2010-04-30 DTD 1 1 Sprain Turf Toe -
2010-03-14 2010-03-21 Camp 7 0 Right Thigh Tightness Quadriceps -
2009-07-12 2009-07-13 DTD 1 1 Shoulder Soreness Clavicle -
2009-05-23 2009-05-27 DTD 4 4 Low Back Spasms -
2009-05-13 2009-05-13 DTD 0 0 General Medical Illness Headache -
2009-04-15 2009-04-17 DTD 2 1 Mid Back Tightness -
2008-09-25 2008-09-25 DTD 0 0 Thumb Sprain Thumb -
2008-06-12 2008-06-18 DTD 6 5 Left Shoulder Strain Rotator Cuff -
2008-03-17 2008-03-31 Camp 14 0 General Medical Illness Bacterial Infection -
2007-07-03 2007-07-05 DTD 2 2 General Medical Respiratory Flu -
2007-06-21 2007-06-25 DTD 4 3 Low Back Soreness -
2007-06-19 2007-06-19 DTD 0 0 Left Hip Soreness Hip Flexor -
2006-05-17 2006-10-01 60-DL 137 122 Right Ankle Surgery Deltoid Ligament and Torn Peroneal Retinaculum 2006-07-20
2006-03-15 2006-03-21 Camp 6 0 Low Back Spasms -
2005-09-16 2005-09-20 DTD 4 3 Right Sprain Turf Toe -
2004-03-16 2004-03-16 Camp 0 0 Left Shoulder Soreness -
2004-03-09 2004-09-18 Minors 193 0 Left Shoulder Surgery Multiple Labrum Tears From Dislocation 2004-05-28

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2018 BAL $2,000,000
2017 BAL $14,000,000
2016 BAL $12,500,000
2015 BAL $11,500,000
2014 BAL $7,916,667
2013 BAL $7,416,667
2012 BAL $7,416,667
2011 BAL $5,850,000
2010 MIN $5,100,000
2009 MIL $4,650,000
2008 MIL $2,650,000
2007 MIL $400,000
2006 MIL $355,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
8 yrPrevious$33,838,334
2011Current$7,916,667
9 yrPvs + Cur$41,755,001
4 yrFuture$40,000,000
13 yrTotal$81,755,001

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
8 y 164 dLSW Baseball3 years/$22.25M (2012-14)

Details
  • 3 years/$40M (2015-17), plus 2018 option. Signed extension with Baltimore 10/9/14. 15:$11.5M, 16:$12.5M, 17:$14M, 18:$14M club option, $2M buyout. Option for 2018 guaranteed if Hardy 1) has 600 plate appearances in 2017 or 1,150 PAs in 2016-17 and 2) passes physical after 2017 season. Option for 2018 guaranteed with trade. Annual performance bonuses: $0.35M each for 125, 135 games started, with money paid on July 1 four years after bonus is earned. Undisclosed amount of salary is deferred.
  • 3 years/$22.25M (2012-14). Signed extension with Baltimore 7/17/11. $1.25M signing bonus. 12:$7M, 13:$7M, 14:$7M. 2013, 2014 salaries both increase by $0.5M with All-Star, Silver Slugger or top 10 in MVP vote in 2012. 2014 salary increases by $1M with All-Star, Silver Slugger or top 10 in MVP vote in 2012 and 2013. Limited no-trade protection (may block deals to 8 clubs). $0.25M assignment bonus if traded. Escalators based on awards, performance.
  • 1 year/$5.85M (2011). Signed by Baltimore 1/18/11 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$5.1M (2010). Signed by Minnesota 1/19/10 (avoided arbitration). Acquired by Baltimore in trade from Minnesota 12/9/10 (Twins paid Orioles $0.5M in deal).
  • 1 year/$4.65M (2009). Re-signed 1/12/09 (avoided arbitration). Acquired by Minnesota in trade from Milwaukee 11/6/09.
  • 1 year/$2.65M (2008). Re-signed by Milwaukee 2/15/08 (avoided arbitration, $3.05M-$2.4M).
  • 1 year/$0.4M (2007). Re-signed by Milwaukee 3/07.
  • 1 year/$0.355M (2006). Re-signed by Milwaukee 2/06.
  • 1 year/$0.316M (2005). Re-signed by Milwaukee 2/05.
  • Drafted by Milwaukee 2001 (2-56) (Sabino HS, Tucson, Ari.). $0.735M signing bonus.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
90o 532 63 132 24 1 19 68 37 80 1 0 .272 .323 .445 .277 27.1 SS 3 3.2
80o 518 59 125 23 1 18 65 35 79 1 0 .262 .312 .430 .268 22.0 SS 3 2.7
70o 508 57 119 22 1 17 62 34 78 1 0 .255 .305 .418 .261 18.4 SS 3 2.3
60o 499 55 115 21 1 17 60 32 78 1 0 .250 .298 .409 .256 15.4 SS 2 1.9
50o 491 53 111 20 1 16 58 31 77 1 0 .244 .292 .400 .250 12.7 SS 2 1.6
40o 483 51 107 19 1 16 56 30 76 1 0 .239 .286 .391 .245 10.1 SS 2 1.4
30o 474 49 102 18 1 15 54 29 76 1 0 .233 .280 .382 .240 7.4 SS 2 1.1
20o 464 47 98 18 1 14 52 27 75 1 0 .226 .272 .370 .233 4.4 SS 2 0.7
10o 450 43 90 16 1 13 48 26 74 1 0 .217 .262 .355 .224 0.3 SS 2 0.3
Weighted Mean492531112011658317710.245.293.401.25113.0SS 21.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
0% 39% 3% 4% 92%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG TAv WARP VORP BRR POS_ADJ REP_ADJ RAA FRAA
2015324124685150124528710.225.280.362.2340.73.8-0.55.014.9-15.72.3
201633607691302211867411040.232.285.371.2391.49.2-0.77.214.9-12.33.4
2017344704998161124927810.224.268.348.2260.3-0.3-0.55.514.9-20.22.6
201835329356812093420570.221.269.348.2260.0-1.7-0.43.714.9-20.01.8
201936607631211911561381060.215.265.334.2220.2-1.7-0.76.714.9-22.73.4
20203752454101161135136970.209.264.324.218-0.2-4.9-0.65.614.9-24.92.9
202138616641212111561381130.212.262.333.219-0.1-3.9-0.76.514.9-24.63.4
202239632651231911561391200.210.260.321.214-0.3-6.7-0.76.514.9-27.43.5
202340634641221911561371210.207.254.318.211-0.6-8.8-0.76.314.9-29.33.5

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
43.837.520.112.819.63.8133.7

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 81)

Rank Score Name Year TAv Trend
1 90 Nomar Garciaparra 2005 .265
2 90 Miguel Tejada 2005 .289
3 90 Alan Trammell 1989 .254
4 90 Edgar Renteria 2008 .246
5 90 Alexei Ramirez 2013 .254
6 89 Michael Young 2008 .247
7 87 Jason Bartlett 2011 .229
8 87 Cal Ripken Jr. 1992 .258
9 87 Jack Wilson 2009 .233
10 86 Jhonny Peralta 2013 .293
11 86 Alex Gonzalez 2008 .000 DNP
12 86 Derek Jeter 2005 .294
13 86 Jimmy Rollins 2010 .271
14 86 Cristian Guzman 2009 .252
15 86 Juan Uribe 2010 .274
16 85 Carlos Guillen 2007 .286
17 85 Barry Larkin 1995 .302
18 84 Bobby Crosby 2011 .000 DNP
19 84 Julio Lugo 2007 .228
20 84 Mark Ellis 2008 .247
21 84 Freddy Sanchez 2009 .262
22 83 Brendan Ryan 2013 .203
23 83 Buddy Bell 1983 .275
24 82 Orlando Hudson 2009 .277
25 82 Rafael Furcal 2009 .262
26 82 Alvin Dark 1953 .298
27 82 Joe Crede 2009 .251
28 82 Brandon Phillips 2012 .263
29 82 Adam Kennedy 2007 .204
30 82 Aaron Hill 2013 .288
31 82 Omar Infante 2013 .285
32 82 Don Money 1978 .293
33 82 Brooks Robinson 1968 .294
34 81 Jorge Cantu 2013 .000 DNP
35 81 Carney Lansford 1988 .264
36 81 John Valentin 1998 .268
37 81 Bill Madlock 1982 .305
38 81 Felipe Lopez 2011 .201
39 81 George Kell 1954 .273
40 81 Jay Gibbons 2008 .000 DNP
41 81 Eric Soderholm 1980 .296
42 80 Bobby Avila 1955 .275
43 80 Mike Aviles 2012 .243
44 80 Julio Franco 1990 .289
45 80 Felix Mantilla 1966 .251
46 80 Nick Punto 2009 .226
47 80 Roberto Alomar 1999 .302
48 80 Rich Aurilia 2003 .254
49 80 Mike Fontenot 2011 .253
50 80 Chris Sabo 1993 .268
51 80 Mike Lowell 2005 .238
52 80 Lou Whitaker 1988 .289
53 80 Akinori Iwamura 2010 .218
54 79 Chone Figgins 2009 .282
55 79 Adrian Beltre 2010 .298
56 79 Roy Smalley 1984 .237
57 79 Coco Crisp 2011 .261
58 79 Ryne Sandberg 1991 .310
59 79 Keith Lockhart 1996 .251
60 79 Brendan Harris 2012 .000 DNP
61 79 Reed Johnson 2008 .273
62 79 Kevin Mench 2009 .000 DNP
63 79 Yuniesky Betancourt 2013 .209
64 79 Eric Byrnes 2007 .274
65 79 Shea Hillenbrand 2007 .205
66 79 Moises Alou 1998 .324
67 78 Angel Pagan 2013 .277
68 78 Alex Rios 2012 .292
69 78 Juan Encarnacion 2007 .259
70 78 Davey Johnson 1974 .275
71 78 Marco Scutaro 2007 .254
72 78 Tom Tresh 1970 .000 DNP
73 78 Michael Barrett 2008 .222
74 78 Ray Boone 1955 .289
75 78 Denny Walling 1985 .266
76 78 Hideki Matsui 2005 .294
77 77 Vernon Wells 2010 .274
78 77 Shannon Stewart 2005 .259
79 77 Cesar Cedeno 1982 .273
80 77 Randy Ready 1991 .274
81 77 Jose Cruz 1979 .297
82 77 Brian Roberts 2009 .273
83 77 Ramon Hernandez 2007 .250
84 77 Chad Tracy 2011 .000 DNP
85 77 Del Ennis 1956 .253
86 77 Bob Horner 1989 .000 DNP
87 77 Carl Crawford 2013 .273
88 77 Kenji Johjima 2007 .267
89 77 Hal McRae 1977 .299
90 77 Sean Berry 1997 .263
91 77 Bobby Higginson 2002 .271
92 77 Josh Wilson 2012 .000 DNP
93 77 Kevin Bass 1990 .255
94 77 Johnny Logan 1957 .257
95 77 Ben Francisco 2013 .180
96 77 Rusty Greer 2000 .276
97 77 Jason Michaels 2007 .257
98 77 Kevin Millar 2003 .276
99 77 Wally Moon 1961 .325
100 77 Garrett Atkins 2011 .000 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .265 .317 .457 .267
11 vs R (Multi) .253 .294 .413 .249
18 Split (Multi) -.012 -.022 -.044 -.018
19 LgAvg (Multi) -.013 -.023 -.037 -.020
30 vs L (2013) .264 .305 .478 .273
31 vs R (2013) .262 .306 .414 .254
38 Split (2013) -.002 .001 -.064 -.019
39 LgAvg (2013) -.011 -.021 -.036 -.019

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 Hardy picked up in 2012 where he left off in 2011, proving that his power resurgence was for real while playing great defense. As we noted last year, the combination of health, revamped mechanics, and a favorable home ballpark did wonders for his home-run total. Some fall-off was expected, as he hit more than his fair share of fence-scrapers in 2011, but his power remains well above average by shortstop standards. He should settle in offensively somewhere between his 2011 and 2012 seasons, as PECOTA suggests. Winning the Gold Glove was fitting for Hardy, confirming that he has truly joined the ranks of the game's elite shortstops.
2012 After playing just as poorly in Minnesota, Hardy was acquired by the O's this past winter for a pair of non-prospects, and the results were tremendous. Hardy took advantage of Camdenís cozy left field, posting a career high 30 round-trippers to go with a return of his fielding prowess, resulting in a 4.4 WARP almost identical to his 2008 season (4.5). Despite his success, PECOTA is doubtful...and wrong. In 2009, Hardy had some mechanical problems that caused his swing to get too long and hampered his ability to pull the ball. The result was too many balls to straight away centeróthe deepest part of most ballparks. In 2010, he made adjustments but experienced several power-sapping wrist injuries and saw his fly ball rate plummet. Health, reformed mechanics, a career-high flyball percentage, and Baltimoreís friendly dimensions mean Hardyís power should repeat.
2011 Hardy has generally been considered a disappointment after failing to recapture the offensive mojo of his 2007 and 2008 seasons, in which he hit a combined 50 home runs. However, his glove is outstanding, and given the sorry state of shortstop offense around the league, even Hardy's bat remains a valuable commodity. At 28, he's still young enough to regain some of his lost power; much of his reduced pop last season could be traced back to a jammed wrist suffered on May 5, which never fully healed. The wrist prevented him from generating much loft in his swing, so he hit more ground balls than ever, finishing with a career-high 1.46 GB/FB ratio. Even so, he recovered sufficiently to hit .304/.363/.442 in the second half. Hardy still qualifies as an asset, if something short of the incipient star he appeared to be two years ago, and a winter of rest could help him regain his power stroke with the Orioles, for whom a December trade installed him as the starter.
2010 And then there were two. Hardy joined Corey Hart and the injured Rickie Weeks as major disappointments in 2009, leaving Fielder and Braun as the only Brewers in good standing of the Young Slugger Corps. As usual, Hardy played stellar defense and struggled against right-handed pitching, but his power inexplicably evaporated, and he was helpless (.169/.310/.229) against the portsiders heís traditionally punished (.299/.374/.564 career through 2008). Rate stat excavators can point to a low line-drive rate and a drop in his BABIP, but the simple fact is Hardy just didnít make much hard contact. Traded to Minnesota to make room for the much-cheaper Alcides Escobar, Hardyís outstanding glove will make him a valuable addition to the Twins roster, but while heís a good bet to improve on his woeful 2008 numbers a return to All-Star production with the bat isnít likely given his career-long struggle to hit right-handers (.256/.309/.401).
2009 Good health becomes Hardy. For the second year in a row, he not only reached his 75th-percentile PECOTA projection as far as his rate stats were concerned, he extended that performance across an extra 25 percent of playing time. He improved over 2007 in several areas, including his defense; beyond our own system's showing him love, he ranked second among shortstops via Ultimate Zone Rating (11.6) and third via Plus/Minus (+19). While his 26-point bump in BABIP may not be sustainable unless he increases his line-drive rate from a surprisingly low 15.5 percent, modest increases in walk rate and isolated power suggest heís recovering some of the development time lost to injury in his age-21 through -23 seasons. On a team that saw Braun, Hart, and Fielder take steps backward last year, heís become a significant plus, and trading him simply to accommodate Alcides Escobar wonít constitute a step in the right direction.
2008 Hardy bounced back from his 2006 ankle injury, emerging as an offensive force amid the Brewers' opening run and one of the team's few bright spots on defense. He hit .304/.350/.567 though the end of May while battling Prince Fielder for the league lead in homers, but like most of his teammates, he cooled down considerably thereafter; his .261/.308/.403 the rest of the way suggests he'll have to either improve his plate discipline or hit .300 to contribute. Nonetheless, while playing just his second full season out of the last four, Hardy surpassed his 75th percentile PECOTA projection, offering hope that he can recover the development time he's lost to injuries. An asset at his current level, Hardy should continue to make gains as he enters his prime years.
2007 Originally expected to miss two to six weeks after a May ankle injury, Hardy instead missed the rest of the year. He also failed to build on his strong second half in 2005, as he could only muster a .234 EqA before hitting the DL. Hardy`s injuries so far (shoulder, ankle) are unrelated and fluky, not the kind of thing you can prevent, but his fragility is becoming awfully suspicious. Coupled with his minor league shoulder injury, he`s missed a lot of development time in his young career, and it`s not at all clear that once-generous projections still apply.
2006 Even setting aside the `04 season he lost to a shoulder injury, Hardy surprised everyone by adapting as well as he did to the league. It took some time to chip away the rust, as his first-half .187/.293/.267 numbers attest, but the Brewers didn`t lose faith and Hardy rewarded them with a sizzling .308/.363/.503 after the All-Star break. Hardy`s one of those players who is fun to watch, and is consistently credited with being a smart player in the field and on the bases. You shouldn`t take the comparison to Gomez as bad news; Gomez got flaky and fragile later in life, but at 23, he was a promising shortstop. Hardy has better power potential and a reputation for excellent leatherwork, so look for a few All-Star games in his future.
2005 Hardy's career has been one of ups and down. After some mediocre performances in the lower minors, he broke out with a terrific season in 2003, but a torn labrum interrupted his season in 2004. He performed well after his return, however, and the Brewers remain enamored with his defense. Now healthy, he is going to camp with the big club in March, and even if he does not win the starting job in spring training, the organization is expecting him to force his way onto the roster in the early going. If his bat continues to progress and he gets the normal power spike as he ages, Hardy could be a perennial contender for the Brewers token All-Star slot.

BP Articles

J.J. Hardy is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
Fantasy Freestyle: Playoff Spotlight: Alcides EscobarWilson Karaman2014-10-21
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Game Four PreviewsR.J. Anderson2014-10-15
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Game Four PreviewsSahadev Sharma2014-10-15
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Game Three PreviewsSahadev Sharma2014-10-14
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Game Three PreviewsDoug Thorburn2014-10-14
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: The Greatest Defensive Outfield In History: ALCS Game 2Sam Miller2014-10-13
The Week in Quotes: October 6-12th, 2014Nick Bacarella2014-10-13
The Week in Quotes: October 6-12th, 2014Nick Wheatley-Schaller2014-10-13
The Week in Quotes: October 6-12th, 2014Chris Mosch2014-10-13
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Saturday PreviewsR.J. Anderson2014-10-11
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Saturday PreviewsSam Miller2014-10-11
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Baltimore Hearts HardyJeff Quinton2014-10-10
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: ALCS Series Preview: Royals vs. OriolesSam Miller2014-10-10
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: Quartet of Consequence: The Four Plays That Keyed An ALDS SweepR.J. Anderson2014-10-06
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Game 3 PreviewsSam Miller2014-10-05
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Game 3 PreviewsR.J. Anderson2014-10-05
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: Baseball Nirvana Game PreviewsJ.P. Breen2014-10-03
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: Baseball Nirvana Game PreviewsJeff Quinton2014-10-03
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: Baseball Nirvana Game PreviewsDoug Thorburn2014-10-03
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: Baseball Nirvana Game PreviewsSahadev Sharma2014-10-03
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: Baseball Nirvana Game PreviewsMike Gianella2014-10-03
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: ALDS Game One Recap: Detroit Shock CityR.J. Anderson2014-10-03
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: ALDS Preview: Orioles vs. TigersR.J. Anderson2014-10-02
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 26, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-09-26
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 15, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-09-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week 24Bret Sayre2014-09-11
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week 24Mike Gianella2014-09-11
The Week in Quotes: September 2-8, 2014Chris Mosch2014-09-09
The Week in Quotes: September 2-8, 2014Nick Bacarella2014-09-09
The Week in Quotes: September 2-8, 2014Nick Wheatley-Schaller2014-09-09
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 5, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-09-05
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 26, 2014Chris Mosch2014-08-26
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 25, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-08-25
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 11, 2014Chris Mosch2014-08-11
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 11, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-08-11
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 8, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-08-08
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 8, 2014Morris Greenberg2014-08-08
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 8, 2014Sam Miller2014-08-08
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 8, 2014Andrew Koo2014-08-08
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Weekend Shift: Coco DefenseChris Mosch2014-07-21
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Round Up The Usual Weekend SuspectsChris Mosch2014-07-14
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Round Up The Usual Weekend SuspectsDaniel Rathman2014-07-14
BP Unfiltered: Cat-and-Mouse with Kevin KiermaierChris Mosch2014-07-11
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Matt Adams Powers UpDaniel Rathman2014-07-08
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: The Players PECOTA Has MissedBen Lindbergh2014-06-19
BP Unfiltered: This Week in Bunting to Beat the Shift, 6/13Ben Lindbergh2014-06-13
BP Unfiltered: This Week in Bunting to Beat the Shift, 6/13Chris Mosch2014-06-13
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Weekend Wrap-Up, 6/9Daniel Rathman2014-06-09
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Soaring JaysChris Mosch2014-06-06
Overthinking It: May in Catcher FramingBen Lindbergh2014-06-04
Overthinking It: This Week in Bunting to Beat the Shift, 5/30Ben Lindbergh2014-05-30
Overthinking It: This Week in Bunting to Beat the Shift, 5/30Chris Mosch2014-05-30
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Weekend Wrap-Up, 5/27Daniel Rathman2014-05-27
Baseball ProGUESTus: An Ode to the Double Play PivotRocco DeMaro2014-05-22
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Stephen Drew and the Red Sox End the SuspenseBen Lindbergh2014-05-21
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Stephen Drew and the Red Sox End the SuspenseJeff Quinton2014-05-21
Daily League Strategy: May 2-4Paul Sporer2014-05-02
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: Does Baseball Have a Pace Problem?Ben Lindbergh2014-04-16
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessMy Model Portfolio: The Rare "Spend More on Offense" StrategyBen Carsley2014-03-28
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: Farewell to Free Agency?Ben Lindbergh2014-03-20
Pebble Hunting: The Best GIFs of the 2014 Baseball SeasonSam Miller2014-03-05
The Top 101 Fantasy Prospects of 2014: Part One: 1-50Bret Sayre2014-03-03
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Qualifying Offer Helps Orioles, Hurts Nelson CruzR.J. Anderson2014-02-24
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Qualifying Offer Helps Orioles, Hurts Nelson CruzBen Lindbergh2014-02-24
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessMock Auction Analysis: AL- and NL-Only Mike Gianella2014-02-20
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: ShortstopsIan Lefkowitz2014-02-07
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: ShortstopsJared Weiss2014-02-07
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: ShortstopsBen Murphy2014-02-07
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDynasty League Positional Rankings: Top 50 ShortstopsBret Sayre2014-02-06
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTale of the Tape: J.J. Hardy vs. Xander BogaertsWilson Karaman2014-02-06
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Three-Year Projections: ShortstopsCraig Goldstein2014-02-05
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Tier Rankings: ShortstopsPaul Sporer2014-02-04
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGraphical Fantasy Rankings: ShortstopsMauricio Rubio2014-02-04
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Team Discussion: ShortstopsBP Fantasy Staff2014-02-04
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessState of the Position: ShortstopsMike Gianella2014-02-03
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessState of the Position: Second BasemenPaul Sporer2014-01-27
This article requires BP Premium accessPebble Hunting: The Year's 10 Best Slides: A Slide Show (Again)Sam Miller2014-01-09
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Team Preview: Boston Red SoxBen Carsley2014-01-06
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Team Preview: Baltimore OriolesPaul Sporer2013-12-11
Baseball ProGUESTus: What Happened to the Twins?Elliot Mann2013-12-10
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Re-Upping RamirezDaniel Rathman2013-12-03
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: The Cardinals Pay Peralta's PriceBret Sayre2013-11-25
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: The Cardinals Pay Peralta's PriceBen Lindbergh2013-11-25
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Veteran Help WantedDaniel Rathman2013-11-18
The Week in Quotes: November 11-17Nick Bacarella2013-11-18
The Week in Quotes: November 11-17Chris Mosch2013-11-18
The Week in Quotes: November 11-17Andrew Koo2013-11-18
The Week in Quotes: November 11-17Satchel Price2013-11-18
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: Picking an Appropriate Cardinals ShortstopBen Lindbergh2013-11-12
This article requires BP Premium accessPebble Hunting: The Hypotheses That Require RevisitingSam Miller2013-09-27
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: A Couple of ClinchersDaniel Rathman2013-09-20
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Weirdest BaseballDaniel Rathman2013-09-19
Pebble Hunting: Why Koji Uehara?Sam Miller2013-09-18
This article requires BP Premium accessCovering the Call-Ups, Part Two: The HittersCraig Goldstein2013-09-13
This article requires BP Premium accessCovering the Call-Ups, Part Two: The HittersBret Sayre2013-09-13
This article requires BP Premium accessCovering the Call-Ups, Part Two: The HittersMark Anderson2013-09-13
This article requires BP Premium accessCovering the Call-Ups, Part Two: The HittersJason Cole2013-09-13
This article requires BP Premium accessCovering the Call-Ups, Part Two: The HittersJeff Moore2013-09-13
This article requires BP Premium accessCovering the Call-Ups, Part Two: The HittersBen Carsley2013-09-13
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Meltdown MadnessDaniel Rathman2013-09-13
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week 25Mike Gianella2013-09-12
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week 25Bret Sayre2013-09-12
This article requires BP Premium accessPainting the Black: Flipping the BirdsR.J. Anderson2013-09-10
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 6, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-06
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Call-Up: Jonathan SchoopMark Anderson2013-09-04
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Call-Up: Jonathan SchoopMike Gianella2013-09-04
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: The Pittsburgh Pirates: No Longer a Losing TeamDaniel Rathman2013-09-04
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week 22Mike Gianella2013-08-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week 22Craig Goldstein2013-08-29
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 26, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-26
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 14, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-14
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 12, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-12
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 8, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-08
Painting the Black: The Holding CompanyR.J. Anderson2013-08-05
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: July 28, 2013Clint Chisam2013-07-28
This article requires BP Premium accessChanging Speeds: The All-Vindication TeamKen Funck2013-07-18
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: The AL Comes Up AcesDaniel Rathman2013-07-17
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: July 13, 2013Clint Chisam2013-07-13
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: July 12, 2013Clint Chisam2013-07-12
The Week in Quotes: July 1-7Andrew Koo2013-07-08
The Week in Quotes: July 1-7Satchel Price2013-07-08
The Week in Quotes: July 1-7Chris Mosch2013-07-08
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 19, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-19
The Week in Quotes: June 10-16Chris Mosch2013-06-17
The Week in Quotes: June 10-16Andrew Koo2013-06-17
The Week in Quotes: June 10-16Satchel Price2013-06-17
Painting the Black: Swinging With StarlinR.J. Anderson2013-06-11
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Fast Starts and Slow StartsMike Gianella2013-06-10
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 7, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-07
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 6, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-06
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 2, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-02
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Q&A: Russell Martin and Ryan HaniganBen Lindbergh2013-06-01
The Lineup Card: Making the Case for Harper, Machado, or TroutBaseball Prospectus2013-05-30
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 26, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-26
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 9th, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-09
This article requires BP Premium accessIn A Pickle: The Turn of the TwoJason Wojciechowski2013-05-09
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 6th, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-06
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: The Art of TradingMike Gianella2013-04-29
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: April 27, 2013Clint Chisam2013-04-27
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for April 20Larry Granillo2013-04-21
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessRoto Restart: Re-ranking the Middle InfieldersPaul Singman2013-04-12
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: No Relief for RelieversDaniel Rathman2013-04-11
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for April 7Larry Granillo2013-04-08
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for April 4Larry Granillo2013-04-05
Fantasy Mailbag: A Trout/Cabrera Tandem?BP Fantasy Staff2013-04-05
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: So You Want to Buy a 2014-15 Free Agent?Ben Lindbergh2013-04-04
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Tier Rankings: ShortstopsPaul Singman2013-03-22
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: 4x4 Versus 5x5Mike Gianella2013-03-15
This article requires BP Premium accessSkewed Left: Saberizing the Gold GlovesZachary Levine2013-03-13
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: CBS AL-Only Expert Auction ResultsMike Gianella2013-03-01
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessPre-Season Positional Rankings: Top 15 Fantasy Third BasemenBret Sayre2013-02-25
This article requires BP Premium accessPebble Hunting: Fixing the Holes, American LeagueSam Miller2013-02-20
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessPre-Season Positional Rankings: Top 15 Fantasy ShortstopsPaul Singman2013-02-20
This article requires BP Premium accessProspects Will Break Your Heart: Baltimore Orioles Top 10 ProspectsJason Parks2013-02-15
This article requires BP Premium accessPebble Hunting: What it Means to Have the Worst Farm System in BaseballSam Miller2013-02-15
This article requires BP Premium accessPebble Hunting: What it Means to Have the Best Farm System in BaseballSam Miller2013-02-08
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Tuesday, January 22Daniel Rathman2013-01-22
Rumor Roundup: Monday, January 14Daniel Rathman2013-01-14
This article requires BP Premium accessSkewed Left: Has Baltimore Been Busy Enough?Zachary Levine2013-01-03
The Lineup Card: 11 Potential TradesBaseball Prospectus2012-12-13
This article requires BP Premium accessIn A Pickle: Forever ChangesJason Wojciechowski2012-11-01
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: ALCS Game Three Preview: Yankees vs. TigersDaniel Rathman2012-10-16
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: ALDS Recap: Yankees Defeat OriolesBen Lindbergh2012-10-13
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Four Recap: Orioles 2, Yankees 1Ben Lindbergh2012-10-12
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Five Preview: Orioles at YankeesDaniel Rathman2012-10-12
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Four Preview: Orioles at YankeesDaniel Rathman2012-10-11
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Three Preview: Orioles at YankeesMatthew Kory2012-10-10
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Two Recap: Orioles 3, Yankees 2Ben Lindbergh2012-10-09
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Two Preview: Yankees at OriolesDaniel Rathman2012-10-08
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: ALDS Game One Recap: Yankees 7, Orioles 2Ben Lindbergh2012-10-08
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: ALDS Game One Preview: Yankees at OriolesDaniel Rathman2012-10-07
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: Orioles-Yankees Division Series PreviewBen Lindbergh2012-10-07
Playoff Prospectus: American League Wild Card Game (UPDATED)Derek Carty2012-10-05
The BP Wayback Machine: Oops, They Did it Again?Christina Kahrl2012-09-28
What You Need to Know: Wednesday, September 19Daniel Rathman2012-09-19
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Platoon Advantage: The Year of Everything But the ShortstopBill Parker2012-09-12
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Call-Up: Manny MachadoKevin Goldstein2012-08-09
BP Unfiltered: MVPs Who Weren't All-StarsBen Lindbergh2012-07-12
BP Unfiltered: Erick Aybar Takes an Extra BaseR.J. Anderson2012-07-09
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Yeah, But is it Gonna Fly?Jay Jaffe2012-05-18
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Orange Crush(ers)Jason Collette2012-05-15
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Game of the Week: A Strange Start in BaltimoreJonathan Bernhardt2012-05-11
What You Need to Know: Friday, May 11Daniel Rathman2012-05-11
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Common Players on my 2012 Fantasy TeamsDerek Carty2012-04-02
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Yahoo! Friends & Family DraftDerek Carty2012-03-29
Fantasy Beat: Tout Wars and LABR AL DraftsJason Collette2012-03-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Fantasy Tier Rankings: ShortstopsDerek Carty2012-03-12
The Platoon Advantage: The Terrible Twins of 2012?Bill Parker2012-03-07
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: LABR Draft FalloutJason Collette2012-03-05
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Preview: AL East 2012 Preseason PreviewJason Collette2012-02-20
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Preview: AL East 2012 Preseason PreviewR.J. Anderson2012-02-20
This article requires BP Premium accessHeartburn Hardball: The Race to the Bottom in 2012Jonathan Bernhardt2012-02-16
Baseball ProGUESTus: Lose-Lose Situation: Revisiting the Johan Santana TradeAaron Gleeman2012-02-07
Prospectus Hit and Run: The Heavyweight InfieldJay Jaffe2012-01-27
This article requires BP Premium accessFantasy Beat: Mock Draft UpdateJason Collette2012-01-06
This article requires BP Premium accessPainting the Black: On Lineup TinkeringR.J. Anderson2012-01-04
This article requires BP Premium accessThe BP Broadside: The Rudy Pemberton Project Goes to BaltimoreSteven Goldman2011-12-27
Transaction Analysis: In with the NewBen Lindbergh2011-12-15
This article requires BP Premium accessCollateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: AL EastBen Lindbergh2011-11-28
This article requires BP Premium accessCollateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: AL EastCorey Dawkins2011-11-28
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Dan Duquette Lands in BaltimoreR.J. Anderson2011-11-07
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: BP Fantasy End of Season AwardsDerek Carty2011-10-03
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 28Larry Granillo2011-09-29
One-Hoppers: The Team Entropy All-StarsJay Jaffe2011-09-29
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: A Night in the Life of Team EntropyJay Jaffe2011-09-28
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 22Larry Granillo2011-09-23
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 19Larry Granillo2011-09-20
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 17Larry Granillo2011-09-18
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Minnesota TwinsJay Jaffe2011-09-15
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Minnesota TwinsESPN Insider2011-09-15
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Minnesota TwinsKevin Goldstein2011-09-15
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Baltimore OriolesKevin Goldstein2011-09-12
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Baltimore OriolesSteven Goldman2011-09-12
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Baltimore OriolesESPN Insider2011-09-12
Prospectus Perspective: The New Jack Zoo ReviewBradley Ankrom2011-09-09
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: How Much to Pay Jose?Ben Lindbergh2011-09-01
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 29Larry Granillo2011-08-30
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 26Larry Granillo2011-08-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe BP Trading Post: Top Catchers and Resurgent ShortstopsMichael Jong2011-08-24
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 22Larry Granillo2011-08-23
BP Unfiltered: Jerome Williams Is BackMike Fast2011-08-22
Spinning Yarn: Why are Batters Hit by Pitches?Mike Fast2011-08-17
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Fast BreakersJay Jaffe2011-08-15
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 12Larry Granillo2011-08-13
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 8Larry Granillo2011-08-09
This article requires BP Premium accessCollateral Damage: Nicasio's NeckCorey Dawkins2011-08-08
This article requires BP Premium accessCollateral Damage: Nicasio's NeckBen Lindbergh2011-08-08
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 4Larry Granillo2011-08-05
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: The Offensive GambleDerek Carty2011-08-04
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Furcal Joins the Flock UPDATEDR.J. Anderson2011-07-31
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Furcal Joins the Flock UPDATEDKevin Goldstein2011-07-31
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for July 28Larry Granillo2011-07-29
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for July 26Larry Granillo2011-07-27
Spinning Yarn: A Zone of Their OwnMike Fast2011-07-20
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: The Cold CornerJay Jaffe2011-07-20
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for July 18Larry Granillo2011-07-19
On the Beat: Invasion of the Young ArmsJohn Perrotto2011-07-15
Painting the Black: Mid-season Heroes and Goats, Part 1R.J. Anderson2011-07-12
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: The Buck Stops...Where?John Perrotto2011-07-01
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 28Larry Granillo2011-06-30
BP Unfiltered: The Paper Trail 6/30John Perrotto2011-06-30
This article requires BP Premium accessDivide and Conquer, AL East: Coming Up Short at ShortstopBen Kabak2011-06-30
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 26Larry Granillo2011-06-27
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 21Larry Granillo2011-06-22
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 19Larry Granillo2011-06-20
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 16Larry Granillo2011-06-17
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Of Birds and BatsJay Jaffe2011-06-17
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: The New King of QueensJohn Perrotto2011-06-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessValue Picks: Second Base, Shortstop, and CatcherMichael Jong2011-06-15
Prospectus Hit and Run: Anatomy of a CollapseJay Jaffe2011-06-08
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessValue Picks: Second Base, Shortstop, and CatcherMichael Jong2011-06-07
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 3Larry Granillo2011-06-04
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 1Larry Granillo2011-06-02
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Value Picks at Catcher, Second Base, and ShortstopMichael Jong2011-05-31
This article requires BP Premium accessThe BP Broadside: The Jose Reyes ShortageSteven Goldman2011-05-26
This article requires BP Premium accessContractual Matters: The Orioles' Roster RouletteJeff Euston2011-05-24
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Value Picks at Catcher, Second Base, and ShortstopMichael Jong2011-05-24
Transaction Analysis: Heroes Take a FallBen Lindbergh2011-05-18
Fantasy Beat: Value Picks at Catcher, Second Base, and ShortstopMichael Jong2011-05-17
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 15Larry Granillo2011-05-16
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: Indian SpringTommy Bennett2011-05-16
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 10Larry Granillo2011-05-11
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Nyjer Morgan, EnigmaJohn Perrotto2011-04-22
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Britton's Got TalentJohn Perrotto2011-04-18
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: A Plethora of Young HurlersCraig Brown2011-04-13
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Never Enough PitchingBen Lindbergh2011-04-12
Fantasy Beat: Tout Wars FAAB UpdateJason Collette2011-04-12
This article requires BP Premium accessCollateral Damage: More on the CoreMarc Normandin2011-04-11
This article requires BP Premium accessCollateral Damage: More on the CoreCorey Dawkins2011-04-11
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: The Heart of the RockiesJohn Perrotto2011-04-11
This article requires BP Premium accessThe BP Broadside: More Questions, Worries, and Insomniac Mutterings from Opening Day, Week, Infinity, and Beyond, American LeagueSteven Goldman2011-04-05
Painting the Black: Dissecting Britton's DebutR.J. Anderson2011-04-04
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Two Twins Are Better Than OneJohn Perrotto2011-04-01
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Value Picks in the RotationBill Baer2011-03-25
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Prospect Preview: AL EastKevin Goldstein2011-03-25
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Scoresheet Lineup ConstructionRob McQuown2011-03-24
This article requires BP Premium accessContractual Matters: AL Central Payroll ProjectionsJeff Euston2011-03-16
This article requires BP Premium accessTeam Injury Projection: Baltimore OriolesCorey Dawkins2011-03-15
This article requires BP Premium accessTeam Injury Projection: Baltimore OriolesMarc Normandin2011-03-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Expert Mock Draft ResultsJason Collette2011-03-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Value Picks in the RotationBill Baer2011-03-11
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: A New Day in BaltimoreJohn Perrotto2011-03-09
This article requires BP Premium accessContractual Matters: AL East Payroll ProjectionsJeff Euston2011-03-02
This article requires BP Premium accessExpanded Horizons: Quantifying HopeTommy Bennett2011-02-28
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Scoresheet Draft Prep, BP Kings, and YouRob McQuown2011-02-25
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: The Curious Case of Francisco LirianoJay Jaffe2011-02-23
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Focus: Shortstop RankingsMarc Normandin2011-02-18
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Scoresheet - A-Rod or Stephen Drew?Rob McQuown2011-02-18
Prospectus Hit and Run: Check, Call, Reyes, Fold?Jay Jaffe2011-02-16
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Preview: AL East 2011 ForecastSteven Goldman2011-02-14
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: Winning the Winter, AL EditionJay Jaffe2011-02-14
Transaction of the Day: Vladimir GuerreroChristina Kahrl2011-02-08
Fantasy Beat: BP Scoresheet Early Draft PrepRob McQuown2011-02-07
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Value Picks in the RotationBill Baer2011-02-04
The Column to Be Named Later: Birds of a FeatherMarc Normandin2011-02-04
BP Unfiltered: Duchscherer Joins BaltimoreR.J. Anderson2011-01-31
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-08-29 12:00:00 (link to chat)Do the O's re-sign J.J. Hardy?
(John from CT)
Wouldn't surprise me if they did, but I don't have any inside information here. (R.J. Anderson)
2014-07-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)With J.J. Hardy's pending free agency, could the Cubs look to move Castro for one of the Orioles' top arms?
(nottes from MD)
Anything is possible. Part of me would like to believe the Orioles would entertain moving Machado back to third base, but I know that's unlikely. (Mark Anderson)
2014-04-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think Manny Machado returns to SS after JJ Hardy's contract ends at the end of this season? I remember that being the line of thinking in the MLB community a year or two ago, but Machado has played some good defense at 3B since he's been moved there. Does he stick at 3B or is a move to SS still possible? Where does he end up for Opening Day 2015?
(Rob from Oklahoma)
We have multiple Manny Machado to shortstop questions, so let's cover those here.

I'm not convinced Machado will move back to shortstop anymore, in large part because I'm not convinced the Orioles will let J.J. Hardy walk. Now, if they do, then maybe they go after one of the third basemen available this winter and slide Machado to shortstop. I know that's a ticky-tack answer, but I don't have any insight into their plans and I don't think there's a clear best approach here. (R.J. Anderson)
2013-01-14 14:00:00 (link to chat)Better player over their career: Machado or Profar ? Does Machado ever get a shot at SS and if he does how long can he stay there ?
(tbwhite from San Deigo)
Tough question. I'll go with Machado. And yes, I think he'll play shortstop when J.J. Hardy's contract is up (after 2014), if not sooner, and that he could stick there until, let's say, his late-20s. Might take just as long for Profar to get a shot at playing short regularly. (Ben Lindbergh)
2011-02-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)can the brewers win with yuniesky at SS?
(BStephen from milwaukee)
It can be done, especially if FRAA's sunny take on his 2010 defensive performance carries over to this season. Of course, I'd like their chances better if J.J. Hardy were still around. (Ben Lindbergh)
2010-10-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Great articles so far this postseason CK. In fact I've enjoyed the entire BP approach to each game/series (with the preview, pitch matchups, and recaps). What do you see this offseason for the O's? Rangers or Giants?
(McNulty from Baltimore)
Thanks McNulty, the compliment's appreciated. I know that I love writing about individual games, and maybe it was early exposure to Okrent's "Nine Innings," but then I think using a game as a vehicle for shuttling between macro and micro theme-wise is interesting in itself. And the stuff that Matt and Eric and the rest of the team have been bringing to the table has been an enhancement I've appreciated as much as the audience.

For the O's... well, hopefully some learning from the mistakes of the recent past. Garrett Atkins was a few million they could have more usefully invested in inner-city baseball, because that would have done more to earn or retain fans than one broke-bat ex-Rockie. "Stay the course" isn't much consolation, though, but with Showalter skippering the squad, I'm more interested to see who he decides has value from among the talent they have on hand. If there's a FA I'd like to see them pursue, it's J.J. Hardy, because they shouldn't settle for the likes of Izturis this time around. (Christina Kahrl)
2010-10-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who do the Redbirds turn to for inexpensive middle-infield help? With the Pujols situation looming, I'm guessing they won't have lots of money to spend.
(Matt from Chicago)
I'm willing to invest a measure of faith in Daniel Descalso at second base, which allows them to skip the now obviously abortive Schumaker experiment at the keystone. Which really leaves them shopping for shortstops, and the market's pretty weak on that score if you consider Jeter's not really in play. It's probably J.J. Hardy or bust, which is OK--you're the Cardinals, and you exploit the advantages of playing in front of the game's best fans in a fine park, playing with some of the best players in baseball while having a legit shot at contention. Haggle, sign, enjoy. (Christina Kahrl)
2009-10-13 14:00:00 (link to chat)Christina, what can the Reed Sox do to improve on this year's result? Obviously they won plenty of regular-season games and they don't have many real deficiencies, but that playoff series left a bad taste in my mouth.
(Dr. Wayne Pitcher from Castro Valley, CA)
A bad taste? Maybe it's my being an A's fan, but between the burgeoning promise of Texas, the Mariners' interesting volte-face, and the Angels' present reign, I very much liked seeing the AL West school an East beast and remind people that baseball is not merely about the same two teams the networks go gooey for. I think the Red Sox really do have to find an answer for left field, because the division's going to be too tight next year for them to be able to just settle for a placeholder or give Josh Reddick a developmental year. There are no good answers at shortstop as far as free agency, so it's either settle for what they have or talk to the Brewers about how to get J.J. Hardy. (Christina Kahrl)
2009-10-13 14:00:00 (link to chat)Would a Michael Bowden for J.J. Hardy deal work?
(Dr. Wayne Pitcher from Castro Valley, CA)
It very well might, but if I were the Brewers, I'd ask for something extra. (Christina Kahrl)
2009-09-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)J.J. Hardy to the Red sox makes a lot of sense, no? What would this do to his fantasy value?
(tommybones from brooklyn)
He would leave the NL, but he would also enter the best park for doubles in the majors. I think he'd do pretty alright for himself, and the Red Sox would be a much better team for it. Hardy is part of my personal plan to make the Red Sox a more well-rounded club in 2010. Matt Holliday is another obvious part of that, given his glove and similarity to Bay with the bat. (Marc Normandin)
2008-10-09 14:00:00 (link to chat)Homer Bailey for JJ Hardy - reasonable deal?
(kingofstyle from NY)
Me, I wouldn't take Bailey for a J.J. Hardy rookie card, let alone Hardy himself, at least right now. Hardy's been worth about 14 WARP3 the past two years, and while the Brewers have a prospect in Alicedes Escobar, if they're going to trade their starting SS for pitching, they've got to get back somebody who's much more developed, a surer bet. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-03-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Christina, Thanks for answering. In retrospect, how did your picks of NRA's work out? Also - I drafted both Maybin and Longoria this year in my main pool (non-keeper). When can I expect them to be up for good? Keep up the greatness!
(rawagman from Work)
Well, I'm still upset about not finishing the series, but that's on me, even in the face of a hectic travel schedule, running the site all the while, and then losing more weight than J.J. Hardy has with the flu this past week. (I'm still not 100 percent yet.) It will certainly be interesting to review, but my focus for the immediate future is going to be on reviewing the major moves from the last couple of weeks, then evaluating the Opening Day rosters, and moving on to doing more of what I'm more interested in at the moment: player usage patterns, what managers create semi-stable roles for their players, in-game tactics, and some discussion of historical tactics and team-level operations. (Christina Kahrl)
2008-03-18 17:00:00 (link to chat)Im not sure if a fantasy question is up your alley, but im in a 5x5 head to head 12 team mixed league and am lacking in pitching, i have offered Joe Nathan J.J. Hardy, and Joey Votto(1b and OF eligiable), along with either Khalil Greene or Mike Napoli (Soto is my starter) for Chris Young, Derek Jeter, and Kosuke Fukudome; would this deal be beneficial to me?
(Keith from Naugatuck, CT)
It's been a long time since I played in a 5x5 league, but I guess I would have to see who you have at the positions you're giving up in order to be able to fully answer your question. It sounds OK, but I would have to know more.

Having said that, making deals in fantasy is part of the fun. All ofyou: Roll the dice! Get on the phone! Play Trader Lane in the privacy of your tool shed. You're there to have fun. (Jim Baker)


BP Roundtables

DateRoundtable NameComment
2010-10-06 10:00:002010 Playoffs Day OneI must admit, J.J. Hardy is a guy I've always kind of liked, back to his days as a Brewer. I thought he got something of a rough deal when he got pushed out there, and I'm glad to see he's latched onto a team and has a job in the playoffs. (Colin Wyers)
2010-10-06 10:00:002010 Playoffs Day OneJ.J. Hardy had a very good second half. (Steven Goldman)
2008-10-02 11:00:00Thursday Playoff GamesBrian Gallagher (Evanston): Brett Myers is more likely to ______ than Carlos Zambrano.

My answer is "walk J.J. Hardy with the bases loaded to give Milwaukee a 1-0 lead." (Kevin Goldstein)
 

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