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He's probably very handsome. Nick Hagadone
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 22
6' 5"
230 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2007 LOW 1A 0 1 0 10 10 24.3 14 8 33 1 60% .250 3 0.91 1.85 4.85 3.80 7.6 5.1 7.2 1.3 4.3 0.6


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 9:37 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 10 7 0 26 26 151.0 147 72 105 12 46% .289 13 1.45 3.96 4.10 3.88 8.2 3.9 5.8 0.7 30.2 4.2 4.3
75o 8 9 0 25 25 141.0 152 76 93 15 47% .305 6 1.62 5.05 5.00 4.93 9.2 4.4 5.5 0.9 10.1 2.1 2.4
60o 7 9 0 25 25 135.0 155 79 86 17 47% .315 0 1.73 5.78 5.60 5.62 9.8 4.8 5.3 1.1 -1.8 0.9 1.2
50o 6 10 0 25 25 132.7 156 79 84 17 48% .319 -2 1.78 6.06 5.83 5.88 10.0 4.9 5.2 1.2 -6.1 0.4 0.7
40o 6 10 0 25 25 128.3 158 81 79 19 48% .326 -5 1.86 6.57 6.26 6.37 10.5 5.2 5.1 1.3 -13.6 -0.4 0.0
25o 5 10 0 24 24 124.0 160 82 74 20 48% .333 -10 1.95 7.15 6.75 6.91 10.9 5.4 4.9 1.4 -21.5 -1.2 -0.8
10o 3 11 0 23 23 107.7 163 86 56 23 50% .360 -26 2.31 9.47 8.69 9.08 12.9 6.5 4.3 1.9 -47.5 -3.9 -3.5
Weighted Mean 7 10 0 26 26 140.0 167 85 88 19 48% .320 -2 1.79 6.18 5.92 5.99 10.1 5.0 5.2 1.2 -7.9 0.3 0.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

0%

0%

0%

0%

1.40

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 22) 7 10 0 26 26 140.0 167 85 88 19 48% .320 -2 1.79 6.18 5.92 5.99 10.1 5.0 5.2 1.2 -7.9 0.3 0.8
2009 (age 23) 7 9 0 34 23 139.3 159 74 92 16 48% .316 -2 1.67 5.56 5.30 5.43 9.7 4.3 5.5 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.5
2010 (age 24) 6 7 0 31 18 112.0 127 54 74 13 47% .314 -2 1.61 5.38 5.08 5.26 9.6 4.0 5.4 1.0 3.1 1.1 1.5
2011 (age 25) 6 7 0 37 17 116.0 127 58 75 13 47% .306 -4 1.60 5.31 4.97 5.20 9.3 4.1 5.3 1.0 3.2 1.1 1.3
2012 (age 26) 5 7 0 38 14 103.3 117 47 68 12 47% .313 -4 1.58 5.42 5.03 5.30 9.6 3.7 5.5 1.0 2.0 0.8 1.1
2013 (age 27) 4 4 1 35 7 73.7 80 34 50 7 49% .310 -4 1.56 5.03 4.77 4.93 9.3 3.8 5.5 0.9 5.4 0.7 1.3
2014 (age 28) 2 2 0 19 4 40.7 43 16 28 4 46% .301 0 1.45 4.47 4.34 4.37 8.9 3.3 5.7 0.9 7.8 0.7 1.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .223 .343 .320
vs RHB .244 .361 .378
Split -.021 -.018 -.058
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.8 $875,000 -6.8 6.7
2009 1.5 $2,050,000 2.0 9.0
2010 1.5 $2,400,000 3.7 9.6
2011 1.3 $2,300,000 3.7 5.1
2012 1.1 $1,900,000 2.5 5.1
2013 1.3 $3,175,000 5.8 5.7
2014 1.4 $3,925,000 8.0 5.0
Peak 8.0 $10,250,000 27.3 41.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.93 5.88 6.91 5.99
2009 4.20 5.33 6.70 5.43
2010 4.69 5.33 7.38 5.26
2011 4.73 5.42 7.17 5.20
2012 4.19 5.32 7.83 5.30
2013 4.26 5.40 5.80 4.93
2014 4.12 4.62 5.80 4.37


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 N/A 0% N/A
2009 15% 1% 3%
2010 28% 4% 5%
2011 37% 16% 5%
2012 45% 23% 1%
2013 33% 25% 5%
2014 65% 39% 2%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

11

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Scott Downs 1998 45 11 Adam Pettyjohn 1999 24
2 Ed Yarnall 1998 33 12 Travis Miller 1995 24
3 Jeff Andra 1998 32 13 Neil Weber 1995 23
4 Matt Beaumont 1995 31 14 Billy Traber 2002 23
5 Jay Witasick 1995 31 15 Noah Lowry 2003 22
6 Sean Marshall 2005 30 16 Donnie Veal 2007 22
7 Aaron Krawiec 2001 28 17 Joshua Sullivan 2007 22
8 Tom Gorzelanny 2005 27 18 C.J. Nitkowski 1995 19
9 Chris Capuano 2001 26 19 Jim Brower 1995 18
10 Barry Zito 2000 24 20 Clay Buchholz 2007 18

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