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Michael Gardner
San Diego Padres [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 27
6'
190 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 CSC 1B 1 0 1 9 0 10.0 8 2 10 1 46% .259 -20 1.00 0.90 6.01 5.19 9.3 4.2 5.2 2.1 0.4 0.2
2005 TAM 1C 3 1 1 21 0 34.7 35 10 31 1 56% .321 -17 1.30 3.37 5.80 5.87 10.9 4.4 4.4 0.6 -0.9 0.2
2006 TAM 1C 3 2 1 33 0 46.2 46 22 45 2 59% .336 -22 1.47 3.12 6.87 6.48 11.2 6.3 5.2 0.9 -4.1 -0.1
2007 TRN 2A 3 5 2 44 3 81.3 72 30 66 1 64% .301 -6 1.25 2.88 4.48 4.68 9.4 4.0 5.0 0.2 7.9 1.5


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 9:04 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 4 3 1 28 8 72.0 69 32 46 4 56% .289 -1 1.41 3.07 4.27 3.33 8.7 3.7 5.0 0.4 17.7 2.0 2.7
75o 4 4 1 27 8 68.3 70 32 43 4 56% .300 -3 1.48 3.62 4.70 3.98 9.2 3.9 4.9 0.5 11.7 1.4 2.1
60o 3 4 0 26 7 65.0 70 31 40 4 56% .310 -6 1.55 4.17 5.14 4.63 9.7 4.0 4.9 0.6 6.2 0.9 1.5
50o 3 4 0 25 7 61.3 69 31 38 4 56% .320 -9 1.63 4.74 5.59 5.31 10.3 4.2 4.8 0.6 1.1 0.4 1.0
40o 3 4 0 24 7 59.0 69 30 36 5 55% .327 -11 1.68 5.13 5.90 5.76 10.6 4.3 4.8 0.7 -2.1 0.1 0.6
25o 2 4 0 22 6 53.3 68 29 32 5 55% .343 -15 1.81 6.09 6.68 6.90 11.5 4.6 4.7 0.8 -8.9 -0.6 -0.1
10o 1 4 0 19 6 44.7 64 27 26 5 55% .369 -23 2.03 7.74 7.99 8.84 13.0 5.0 4.6 1.0 -17.4 -1.4 -1.1
Weighted Mean 3 4 0 26 7 63.7 71 31 39 4 56% .316 -8 1.60 4.58 5.43 5.12 10.1 4.1 4.8 0.6 2.4 0.5 0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

33%

48%

30%

18%

1.23

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 27) 3 4 0 26 7 63.7 71 31 39 4 56% .316 -8 1.60 4.58 5.43 5.12 10.1 4.1 4.8 0.6 2.4 0.5 0.9
2009 (age 28) 3 4 0 23 7 61.0 64 28 40 4 55% .305 -6 1.51 4.39 5.02 4.91 9.5 3.8 5.1 0.6 2.7 0.6 0.8
2010 (age 29) 3 4 1 24 7 61.7 68 27 43 5 54% .319 -4 1.53 4.43 5.16 4.94 10.0 3.6 5.4 0.7 2.4 0.6 0.7
2011 (age 30) 3 3 0 21 6 54.7 59 24 33 3 56% .311 -7 1.52 4.24 5.01 4.73 9.7 3.7 4.7 0.5 2.4 0.7 0.6
2012 (age 31) 3 3 0 23 6 57.7 61 27 36 4 56% .307 -6 1.52 3.90 4.90 4.32 9.6 3.9 4.9 0.6 2.5 0.9 0.5
2013 (age 32) 2 3 0 19 4 43.7 47 19 26 3 56% .307 -9 1.52 4.25 5.03 4.74 9.8 3.7 4.6 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.3
2014 (age 33)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .268 .387 .389
vs RHB .257 .345 .353
Split +.011 +.042 +.036
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.9 $1,450,000 3.0 6.0
2009 0.8 $1,400,000 3.2 5.1
2010 0.7 $1,350,000 2.9 4.3
2011 0.6 $1,275,000 2.8 2.6
2012 0.5 $1,250,000 2.8 2.4
2013 0.3 $925,000 1.6 1.5
2014 0.3 $900,000 1.5 0.6
Peak 3.9 $4,525,000 14.7 21.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 3.98 5.31 6.90 5.12
2009 3.83 4.98 6.84 4.91
2010 3.95 5.26 6.71 4.94
2011 3.39 4.63 5.95 4.73
2012 3.37 3.83 5.63 4.32
2013 3.75 5.29 6.14 4.74
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 18% 0% 33%
2009 41% 29% 27%
2010 51% 41% 21%
2011 65% 49% 20%
2012 71% 64% 19%
2013 75% 66% 12%
2014 88% 82% 11%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

62

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Todd Williams 1998 63 11 Mike Cather 1998 49
2 Evan Rust 2005 59 12 Steve Schmoll 2007 48
3 Kirk Bullinger 1996 53 13 Joe Hudson 1997 48
4 Gabe Sollecito 1999 53 14 J.J. Trujillo 2002 47
5 Cory Bailey 1998 53 15 Greg Bauer 2005 47
6 Andy Mitchell 2005 53 16 Shawn Camp 2002 46
7 Jeff Tam 1997 52 17 Doug Nickle 2001 46
8 Jordan De_Jong 2006 50 18 Jentry Beckstead 2007 46
9 Kevin Cameron 2007 49 19 Paul Abraham 2007 45
10 Carlos Hines 2007 49 20 Beau Kemp 2007 45

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