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Jaime Garcia
St. Louis Cardinals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 21
6' 1"
200 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 QUD 1B 5 4 0 13 13 77.2 67 18 80 1 64% .313 4 1.10 2.91 5.33 5.80 10.3 4.2 5.1 0.5 -1.5 0.8
2006 PMB 1C 5 4 0 12 12 77.1 84 16 51 3 61% .337 -7 1.30 3.85 6.02 5.93 11.7 3.3 3.3 0.9 -2.5 0.7
2007 SFD 2A 5 9 0 18 18 103.3 93 45 97 14 59% .295 -1 1.34 3.75 6.19 5.57 9.4 4.9 5.9 1.8 0.3 1.4


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 9:02 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 9 7 0 24 24 141.0 134 61 98 11 55% .286 16 1.38 3.55 4.24 4.02 8.3 3.6 5.8 0.6 29.2 4.0 4.1
75o 8 7 0 23 23 138.3 134 61 96 11 55% .289 14 1.41 3.73 4.41 4.23 8.5 3.7 5.8 0.7 25.3 3.6 3.7
60o 7 8 0 23 23 130.3 135 61 88 12 55% .299 10 1.50 4.30 4.93 4.84 9.0 3.9 5.7 0.8 14.6 2.5 2.7
50o 6 9 0 22 22 123.0 134 60 82 13 55% .309 7 1.58 4.84 5.43 5.43 9.5 4.1 5.6 0.9 5.5 1.5 1.7
40o 6 9 0 29 20 119.7 134 60 79 13 55% .313 1 1.62 5.10 5.67 5.71 9.8 4.2 5.5 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.3
25o 5 9 0 30 18 111.0 133 59 71 14 55% .324 -5 1.72 5.79 6.31 6.46 10.4 4.4 5.4 1.1 -8.3 -0.1 0.3
10o 4 9 0 31 16 98.7 129 57 61 15 55% .340 -12 1.88 6.85 7.30 7.60 11.4 4.8 5.2 1.3 -20.3 -1.3 -1.0
Weighted Mean 7 9 0 31 21 131.0 142 64 87 14 55% .307 3 1.57 4.75 5.34 5.34 9.4 4.0 5.6 0.9 6.7 1.6 1.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

30%

59%

19%

14%

1.26

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 21) 7 9 0 31 21 131.0 142 64 87 14 55% .307 3 1.57 4.75 5.34 5.34 9.4 4.0 5.6 0.9 6.7 1.6 1.7
2009 (age 22) 7 8 0 31 19 125.3 130 55 86 11 55% .302 5 1.47 4.37 4.85 4.94 9.1 3.6 5.8 0.8 11.4 2.1 2.1
2010 (age 23) 6 8 0 32 18 118.0 130 50 73 12 50% .306 -1 1.52 4.63 5.15 5.19 9.6 3.5 5.2 0.9 7.3 1.6 1.5
2011 (age 24) 6 7 1 35 15 112.7 119 43 75 10 56% .304 3 1.44 4.27 4.70 4.84 9.2 3.2 5.6 0.7 10.2 1.9 1.8
2012 (age 25) 7 8 1 42 17 129.3 137 50 89 13 57% .304 3 1.44 4.30 4.81 4.86 9.2 3.2 5.8 0.9 10.0 2.1 1.7
2013 (age 26) 5 6 1 36 10 89.0 92 33 60 7 57% .300 2 1.40 4.15 4.45 4.73 9.0 3.1 5.7 0.7 11.3 1.4 1.9
2014 (age 27) 3 3 1 20 5 49.0 51 18 34 4 57% .301 3 1.39 4.05 4.51 4.59 9.0 3.0 5.9 0.7 10.2 0.9 1.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .241 .342 .355
vs RHB .263 .364 .402
Split -.022 -.021 -.047
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.7 $2,225,000 2.9 8.4
2009 2.1 $3,800,000 8.1 11.8
2010 1.5 $2,600,000 4.2 7.3
2011 1.8 $3,725,000 7.5 9.0
2012 1.7 $3,925,000 7.3 7.7
2013 1.9 $4,750,000 8.7 11.5
2014 1.6 $4,425,000 8.2 8.1
Peak 10.6 $15,825,000 37.9 56.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.23 5.43 6.46 5.34
2009 4.30 5.07 6.23 4.94
2010 4.44 5.25 6.78 5.19
2011 4.07 5.02 6.72 4.84
2012 4.17 5.34 6.32 4.86
2013 3.95 5.41 7.07 4.73
2014 3.89 5.47 6.80 4.59


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 14% 0% 30%
2009 27% 11% 32%
2010 33% 16% 25%
2011 42% 17% 28%
2012 43% 26% 27%
2013 46% 25% 27%
2014 63% 37% 22%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

40

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Mike Hampton 1994 42 11 Dave McNally 1964 26
2 Jimmy Anderson 1998 37 12 Sean Gallagher 2007 26
3 Alberto Blanco 1998 36 13 Edgar Ramos 1997 25
4 Odalis Perez 1999 35 14 Renyel Pinto 2004 25
5 Phil Norton 1998 34 15 Bill Pulsipher 1995 24
6 Zach Duke 2005 32 16 Jon Lester 2006 23
7 Oscar Villarreal 2003 31 17 Dustin McGowan 2004 22
8 Francisco Liriano 2005 31 18 Dana Eveland 2005 22
9 Davis Romero 2005 30 19 Wilson Alvarez 1992 20
10 C.J. Nitkowski 1995 27 20 Macay McBride 2004 20

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

It`s exciting to glance at the birth years of a high minor league team and find in their midst a relative babe. That will be Garcia at Double-A Springfield this year. Just 20 and on the fast track to NeoBusch, Garcia lacks projection, but he throws a hard sinker that had them killing grubs galore in the low minors.


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