Jaime Garcia

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 9:02 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	9	7	0	24	24	141.0	134	61	98	11	55%	.286	16	1.38	3.55	4.24	4.02	8.3	3.6	5.8	0.6	29.2	4.0	4.1
75^o	8	7	0	23	23	138.3	134	61	96	11	55%	.289	14	1.41	3.73	4.41	4.23	8.5	3.7	5.8	0.7	25.3	3.6	3.7
60^o	7	8	0	23	23	130.3	135	61	88	12	55%	.299	10	1.50	4.30	4.93	4.84	9.0	3.9	5.7	0.8	14.6	2.5	2.7
50^o	6	9	0	22	22	123.0	134	60	82	13	55%	.309	7	1.58	4.84	5.43	5.43	9.5	4.1	5.6	0.9	5.5	1.5	1.7
40^o	6	9	0	29	20	119.7	134	60	79	13	55%	.313	1	1.62	5.10	5.67	5.71	9.8	4.2	5.5	1.0	1.4	1.0	1.3
25^o	5	9	0	30	18	111.0	133	59	71	14	55%	.324	-5	1.72	5.79	6.31	6.46	10.4	4.4	5.4	1.1	-8.3	-0.1	0.3
10^o	4	9	0	31	16	98.7	129	57	61	15	55%	.340	-12	1.88	6.85	7.30	7.60	11.4	4.8	5.2	1.3	-20.3	-1.3	-1.0
Weighted Mean	7	9	0	31	21	131.0	142	64	87	14	55%	.307	3	1.57	4.75	5.34	5.34	9.4	4.0	5.6	0.9	6.7	1.6	1.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
30%	59%	19%	14%	1.26

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 21)	7	9	0	31	21	131.0	142	64	87	14	55%	.307	3	1.57	4.75	5.34	5.34	9.4	4.0	5.6	0.9	6.7	1.6	1.7
2009 (age 22)	7	8	0	31	19	125.3	130	55	86	11	55%	.302	5	1.47	4.37	4.85	4.94	9.1	3.6	5.8	0.8	11.4	2.1	2.1
2010 (age 23)	6	8	0	32	18	118.0	130	50	73	12	50%	.306	-1	1.52	4.63	5.15	5.19	9.6	3.5	5.2	0.9	7.3	1.6	1.5
2011 (age 24)	6	7	1	35	15	112.7	119	43	75	10	56%	.304	3	1.44	4.27	4.70	4.84	9.2	3.2	5.6	0.7	10.2	1.9	1.8
2012 (age 25)	7	8	1	42	17	129.3	137	50	89	13	57%	.304	3	1.44	4.30	4.81	4.86	9.2	3.2	5.8	0.9	10.0	2.1	1.7
2013 (age 26)	5	6	1	36	10	89.0	92	33	60	7	57%	.300	2	1.40	4.15	4.45	4.73	9.0	3.1	5.7	0.7	11.3	1.4	1.9
2014 (age 27)	3	3	1	20	5	49.0	51	18	34	4	57%	.301	3	1.39	4.05	4.51	4.59	9.0	3.0	5.9	0.7	10.2	0.9	1.6

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.241	.342	.355
vs RHB	.263	.364	.402
Split	-.022	-.021	-.047
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	1.7	$2,225,000	2.9	8.4
2009	2.1	$3,800,000	8.1	11.8
2010	1.5	$2,600,000	4.2	7.3
2011	1.8	$3,725,000	7.5	9.0
2012	1.7	$3,925,000	7.3	7.7
2013	1.9	$4,750,000	8.7	11.5
2014	1.6	$4,425,000	8.2	8.1
Peak	10.6	$15,825,000	37.9	56.9

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.23	5.43	6.46	5.34
2009	4.30	5.07	6.23	4.94
2010	4.44	5.25	6.78	5.19
2011	4.07	5.02	6.72	4.84
2012	4.17	5.34	6.32	4.86
2013	3.95	5.41	7.07	4.73
2014	3.89	5.47	6.80	4.59

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	14%	0%	30%
2009	27%	11%	32%
2010	33%	16%	25%
2011	42%	17%	28%
2012	43%	26%	27%
2013	46%	25%	27%
2014	63%	37%	22%

40

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Mike Hampton	1994	42		11	Dave McNally	1964	26
2	Jimmy Anderson	1998	37		12	Sean Gallagher	2007	26
3	Alberto Blanco	1998	36		13	Edgar Ramos	1997	25
4	Odalis Perez	1999	35		14	Renyel Pinto	2004	25
5	Phil Norton	1998	34		15	Bill Pulsipher	1995	24
6	Zach Duke	2005	32		16	Jon Lester	2006	23
7	Oscar Villarreal	2003	31		17	Dustin McGowan	2004	22
8	Francisco Liriano	2005	31		18	Dana Eveland	2005	22
9	Davis Romero	2005	30		19	Wilson Alvarez	1992	20
10	C.J. Nitkowski	1995	27		20	Macay McBride	2004	20

Player Comments

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2007

It`s exciting to glance at the birth years of a high minor league team and find in their midst a relative babe. That will be Garcia at Double-A Springfield this year. Just 20 and on the fast track to NeoBusch, Garcia lacks projection, but he throws a hard sinker that had them killing grubs galore in the low minors.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	QUD	1B	5	4	0	13	13	77.2	67	18	80	1	64%	.313	4	1.10	2.91	5.33	5.80	10.3	4.2	5.1	0.5	-1.5		0.8
2006	PMB	1C	5	4	0	12	12	77.1	84	16	51	3	61%	.337	-7	1.30	3.85	6.02	5.93	11.7	3.3	3.3	0.9	-2.5		0.7
2007	SFD	2A	5	9	0	18	18	103.3	93	45	97	14	59%	.295	-1	1.34	3.75	6.19	5.57	9.4	4.9	5.9	1.8	0.3		1.4

Historical Stats