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He's probably very handsome. Todd Frazier
Cincinnati Reds [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Shortstop
Bats R
Age 22
6' 3"
215 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 BIL 0R 186 29 6 5 5 25 18 22 3 3 1.2 .319 .409 .513 .304 .237 .301 .349 .227 -2.0 34-SS -6 0.6
2007 DYT 1B 24 4 3 0 2 5 2 4 0 0 -0.4 .318 .375 .727 .598 .273 .333 .636 .309 2.7 0.2


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 10:17 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 631 93 39 4 19 77 63 107 10 4 1.0 .279 .355 .467 .065 .275 .351 .459 .276 35.3 147-SS -6 5.8
75o 606 78 35 4 16 69 56 110 9 4 0.9 .262 .334 .428 -.034 .258 .331 .421 .258 20.0 142-SS -5 4.6
60o 590 70 33 3 14 64 52 112 9 4 0.8 .252 .322 .406 -.091 .249 .319 .400 .247 11.8 138-SS -4 3.9
50o 585 67 32 3 13 62 50 112 9 4 0.8 .249 .318 .398 -.112 .246 .315 .392 .243 8.9 137-SS -4 3.6
40o 577 64 31 3 12 60 49 113 9 4 0.8 .245 .313 .388 -.137 .241 .309 .382 .238 5.4 135-SS -4 3.3
25o 561 57 29 3 10 55 45 114 8 4 0.7 .236 .301 .367 -.193 .232 .298 .361 .227 -1.9 132-SS -4 2.6
10o 531 46 25 3 8 46 38 115 8 4 0.7 .219 .280 .330 -.290 .216 .277 .325 .205 -13.6 125-SS -3 1.5
Weighted Mean 590 65 32 3 12 60 49 117 9 4 0.8 .242 .309 .382 -.153 .239 .306 .376 .234 6.2 138-SS -4 3.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

27%

59%

23%

2%

0.82

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 22) 590 65 32 3 12 60 49 117 9 4 0.8 .242 .309 .382 -.153 .239 .306 .376 .234 6.2 138-SS -4 3.1
2009 (age 23) 558 64 32 3 13 59 46 105 9 4 0.7 .251 .318 .408 -.098 .244 .309 .394 .245 9.8 131-SS -5 3.3
2010 (age 24) 530 65 29 3 16 64 45 98 8 4 0.6 .264 .332 .440 -.022 .256 .323 .425 .259 16.9 125-SS -5 3.5
2011 (age 25) 472 53 26 3 13 51 41 86 6 3 0.5 .258 .328 .428 -.048 .251 .320 .413 .254 12.7 112-SS -4 3.0
2012 (age 26) 520 65 28 3 17 62 46 95 7 3 0.4 .265 .336 .452 .002 .257 .327 .436 .264 16.0 122-SS -7 2.9
2013 (age 27) 493 59 26 2 16 60 43 84 6 3 0.3 .264 .331 .443 -.019 .256 .322 .428 .260 11.9 116-SS -6 2.3
2014 (age 28) 414 43 22 2 10 48 33 71 6 3 0.3 .263 .326 .418 -.062 .256 .317 .403 .251 6.7 99-SS -5 1.9

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .257 .326 .406
vs RHP .237 .302 .368
Split +.020 +.024 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.3 2.8 3.1 $4,200,000 1.7 4.5
2009 0.9 2.4 3.3 $5,450,000 4.9 8.2
2010 1.4 2.0 3.5 $7,325,000 11.1 12.8
2011 1.1 1.9 3.0 $6,225,000 7.9 7.6
2012 1.4 1.5 2.9 $6,900,000 9.6 13.1
2013 1.0 1.3 2.3 $5,400,000 6.8 7.7
2014 0.6 1.4 1.9 $3,950,000 2.8 5.0
Peak 18.1 $27,175,000 43.1 54.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .258 .243 .227 .234
2009 .269 .247 .228 .245
2010 .278 .262 .242 .259
2011 .271 .257 .238 .254
2012 .284 .264 .246 .264
2013 .274 .264 .243 .260
2014 .258 .242 .235 .251


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 2% 0% 27%
2009 3% 1% 41%
2010 11% 5% 54%
2011 6% 2% 55%
2012 20% 14% 58%
2013 33% 25% 60%
2014 44% 40% 47%

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