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He's probably very handsome. Darren Ford
Milwaukee Brewers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Center Field
Bats R
Age 22
6' 1"
195 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 HEL 0R 277 57 4 3 1 24 33 70 18 4 0.3 .271 .365 .326 -.079 .188 .255 .224 .170 -47.2 38-CF -3 -0.5
2006 WVA 1B 566 93 24 3 7 54 56 133 69 15 5.5 .283 .361 .387 .082 .213 .276 .295 .214 -33.9 115-CF 8 1.2
2007 WVA 1B 254 48 15 4 5 33 23 56 31 10 2.4 .335 .398 .504 .302 .226 .281 .343 .225 -9.1 51-CF -3 1.0
2007 BRV 1C 317 46 7 1 4 27 35 67 36 6 2.7 .231 .317 .308 -.103 .201 .280 .272 .217 -22.5 69-CF -9 0.7


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 10:10 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 591 83 28 4 9 44 57 143 52 15 2.5 .250 .326 .372 -.132 .250 .323 .375 .252 3.2 138-CF -2 3.7
75o 576 75 25 4 8 41 53 144 49 14 2.4 .239 .313 .351 -.191 .239 .310 .353 .241 -5.0 135-CF -2 3.0
60o 565 69 23 3 7 38 50 144 46 14 2.3 .232 .304 .336 -.231 .232 .301 .338 .232 -10.3 133-CF -2 2.5
50o 561 67 23 3 7 37 49 144 45 14 2.2 .229 .300 .330 -.247 .229 .298 .332 .229 -12.3 132-CF -2 2.3
40o 552 63 21 3 6 36 47 144 43 13 2.1 .224 .293 .319 -.276 .224 .291 .322 .223 -16.0 130-CF -2 1.9
25o 535 55 19 3 5 32 43 144 40 13 2.0 .214 .281 .299 -.332 .214 .279 .301 .211 -22.6 126-CF -2 1.3
10o 508 45 15 2 4 27 37 144 35 12 1.8 .199 .262 .269 -.416 .199 .260 .271 .190 -31.6 120-CF -2 0.3
Weighted Mean 613 75 24 4 7 40 53 158 49 15 2.2 .227 .298 .326 -.258 .227 .295 .328 .227 -10.8 143-CF -2 2.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

59%

77%

12%

12%

0.89

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 22) 613 75 24 4 7 40 53 158 49 15 2.2 .227 .298 .326 -.258 .227 .295 .328 .227 -10.8 143-CF -2 2.3
2009 (age 23) 559 67 22 3 8 37 48 142 42 13 1.8 .232 .302 .340 -.229 .228 .295 .336 .232 -8.4 131-CF 0 2.1
2010 (age 24) 532 64 21 4 9 38 47 133 41 11 1.5 .233 .305 .349 -.211 .229 .298 .345 .236 -5.2 125-CF -2 1.8
2011 (age 25) 492 59 22 3 8 37 45 116 35 10 1.3 .237 .312 .357 -.184 .234 .305 .353 .241 -2.3 116-CF -2 1.6
2012 (age 26) 505 62 19 4 10 36 45 115 40 10 0.8 .237 .310 .362 -.182 .234 .303 .358 .243 -1.2 119-CF -3 1.1
2013 (age 27) 506 67 22 3 10 42 50 112 38 9 0.8 .253 .330 .381 -.110 .249 .323 .377 .255 2.1 119-CF 0 1.3
2014 (age 28) 389 47 18 2 8 36 38 87 28 6 0.5 .255 .331 .397 -.087 .251 .324 .392 .260 2.2 93-CF 0 1.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .243 .317 .354
vs RHP .223 .290 .313
Split +.020 +.027 +.041
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.0 2.4 2.3 $2,625,000 -12.0 1.0
2009 0.1 2.0 2.1 $2,550,000 -8.1 1.4
2010 0.3 1.5 1.8 $2,225,000 -6.8 1.7
2011 0.4 1.2 1.6 $2,100,000 -3.3 1.9
2012 0.3 0.8 1.1 $1,425,000 -2.2 0.5
2013 0.5 0.8 1.3 $2,325,000 2.0 3.3
2014 0.4 0.7 1.1 $2,075,000 1.7 3.2
Peak 10.1 $9,200,000 2.0 12.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .241 .229 .211 .227
2009 .244 .232 .216 .232
2010 .251 .236 .219 .236
2011 .261 .242 .220 .241
2012 .260 .242 .223 .243
2013 .271 .256 .232 .255
2014 .280 .254 .222 .260


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 12% 0% 59%
2009 26% 9% 53%
2010 34% 21% 60%
2011 46% 31% 61%
2012 67% 53% 59%
2013 67% 58% 55%
2014 78% 67% 48%

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