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He's probably very handsome. Luis Exposito
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 22
6' 3"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 LOW A- 228 18 13 0 1 23 13 44 1 1 -1.8 .250 .301 .327 -.467 .196 .235 .266 .163 -43.2 39-C 1 -1.9
2007 GRN A 32 3 0 0 0 2 2 5 0 0 0.0 .233 .281 .233 -.662 .161 .212 .161 .072 -5.1 9-C -2 -0.6
2008 GRN A 204 34 8 1 11 31 12 42 1 1 -1.4 .283 .328 .508 -.199 .223 .265 .415 .226 -4.8 33-C -4 -0.5
2008 LNC A+ 239 31 13 2 10 37 9 47 0 1 -1.9 .301 .331 .509 -.271 .218 .246 .389 .213 -10.1 44-C 6 0.4


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/8/09 12:56 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 541 57 34 1 16 72 33 132 0 1 -0.8 .259 .309 .428 -.087 .252 .304 .432 .252 8.9 127-C -3 3.0
75o 513 48 30 1 13 64 29 127 0 1 -0.8 .246 .294 .399 -.161 .239 .289 .403 .237 -0.5 121-C -4 1.9
60o 489 41 27 1 12 58 26 123 0 1 -0.7 .236 .280 .375 -.224 .229 .276 .378 .224 -7.5 115-C -4 1.0
50o 476 38 25 1 11 55 25 120 0 1 -0.7 .231 .274 .363 -.254 .224 .270 .367 .217 -10.7 113-C -4 0.6
40o 465 35 24 1 10 52 23 118 0 1 -0.7 .226 .269 .353 -.281 .220 .264 .356 .211 -13.3 110-C -4 0.3
25o 440 30 21 1 8 46 21 113 0 1 -0.6 .217 .257 .332 -.335 .211 .253 .335 .198 -18.1 105-C -5 -0.3
10o 391 21 16 1 6 36 16 103 0 1 -0.5 .201 .236 .294 -.432 .195 .232 .297 .172 -24.9 94-C -5 -1.3
Weighted Mean 489 40 26 1 11 57 26 123 0 1 -0.7 .232 .276 .366 -.209 .225 .271 .370 .219 -10.2 115-C -5 0.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

53%

74%

10%

6%

1.00

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 22) 489 40 26 1 11 57 26 123 0 1 -0.7 .232 .276 .366 -.209 .225 .271 .370 .219 -10.2 115-C -5 0.7
2010 (age 23) 427 36 23 1 11 51 24 103 0 1 -0.5 .243 .289 .387 -.173 .239 .288 .395 .231 -2.6 102-C -4 1.1
2011 (age 24) 419 36 21 1 12 54 23 98 0 1 -0.3 .244 .289 .395 -.161 .241 .288 .404 .234 -1.2 100-C -6 0.8
2012 (age 25) 383 30 18 1 10 47 21 87 0 1 -0.2 .241 .286 .377 -.193 .237 .285 .386 .227 -2.7 92-C -5 0.6
2013 (age 26) 338 26 16 1 9 41 18 78 0 1 -0.2 .240 .286 .383 -.186 .236 .285 .392 .229 -1.9 82-C -5 0.5
2014 (age 27) 360 29 17 1 11 45 21 79 0 1 -0.1 .242 .289 .395 -.163 .238 .288 .403 .234 -0.8 86-C -7 0.6
2015 (age 28) 369 29 19 1 9 46 21 78 0 1 -0.1 .244 .290 .385 -.174 .240 .289 .393 .231 -1.1 89-C -7 0.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .248 .294 .391
vs RHP .227 .269 .353
Split +.021 +.025 +.039
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -12.8 -5.0 0.7 $475,000 -6.1 0.8
2010 -5.9 -4.0 1.1 $1,400,000 0.7 4.4
2011 -4.8 -6.0 0.8 $1,200,000 0.0 4.6
2012 -6.9 -5.0 0.6 $1,050,000 -0.8 3.1
2013 -5.6 -5.0 0.5 $1,050,000 -0.5 3.6
2014 -4.2 -7.0 0.6 $1,275,000 0.5 3.5
2015 -5.3 -7.0 0.4 $1,100,000 -0.6 4.0
Peak 4.2 $3,450,000 0.5 23.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .237 .217 .198 .219
2010 .250 .225 .194 .231
2011 .248 .226 .198 .234
2012 .250 .229 .192 .227
2013 .244 .229 .190 .229
2014 .262 .233 .183 .234
2015 .258 .223 .193 .231


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 6% 0% 53%
2010 22% 8% 59%
2011 35% 23% 61%
2012 54% 31% 52%
2013 64% 40% 47%
2014 63% 48% 48%
2015 67% 56% 45%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

66

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Randy Knorr 1991 62 11 Kelly Mann 1990 52
2 John Buck 2002 58 12 Shawn Dantzler 1986 52
3 John Malkin 1983 57 13 Willie Morales 1995 51
4 Jason Townley 1991 56 14 Tom Pagnozzi 1985 50
5 Jorge Pedre 1989 56 15 Juan Rivera 2000 50
6 Josh Phelps 2000 55 16 Russell Canzler 2008 50
7 Joe Depastino 1996 54 17 Mike Piazza 1991 50
8 Randy Warner 1996 53 18 Cesar Diaz 1996 50
9 Brad Ramsey 1999 53 19 Robert Machado 1995 50
10 Bill Bathe 1983 53 20 Pete Beeler 1989 50

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