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He's probably very handsome. Sergio Escalona
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 24
6'
178 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2007 WPT A- 2 2 0 7 7 27.3 32 19 26 2 57% .385 -28 1.87 7.58 -6 12.86 18.0 9.4 4.3 2.6 -16.9 0.0 -2.2
2007 LWD A 1 4 0 7 7 39.0 51 11 32 4 51% .382 -3 1.59 4.15 -7 7.64 16.9 4.1 3.5 2.5 -7.5 0.0 -0.5
2007 CLR A+ 0 0 0 1 1 4.0 8 2 4 0 27% .571 12 2.50 2.25 -1 3.00 27.0 6.0 6.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.1
2008 LWD A 5 1 2 28 0 44.7 36 18 60 1 63% .350 7 1.21 3.42 -2 5.59 11.4 5.6 7.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
2008 REA AA 0 1 1 15 0 24.3 27 14 29 3 53% .375 13 1.69 2.22 -3 3.57 11.9 5.2 7.9 1.6 5.1 0.0 0.6


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/10/09 3:32 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 4 3 1 28 6 59.7 55 31 54 5 51% .298 14 1.43 4.07 0 4.27 8.2 4.0 7.0 0.7 9.5 1.1 1.5
75o 3 3 1 27 5 54.3 59 32 47 6 51% .326 7 1.66 5.20 0 5.43 9.6 4.6 6.7 0.9 1.4 0.3 0.6
60o 2 3 0 26 5 50.3 61 33 42 6 51% .347 2 1.85 6.13 0 6.36 10.8 5.1 6.4 1.1 -4.1 -0.2 0.0
50o 2 3 0 25 5 49.3 62 33 40 6 51% .353 0 1.91 6.40 0 6.63 11.1 5.2 6.3 1.1 -5.6 -0.3 -0.1
40o 2 3 0 25 5 47.0 62 33 37 7 51% .365 -3 2.03 6.99 0 7.22 11.8 5.5 6.2 1.3 -8.5 -0.6 -0.5
25o 2 3 0 24 5 44.3 63 33 34 7 51% .378 -7 2.17 7.70 0 7.92 12.7 5.9 6.0 1.4 -11.6 -0.9 -0.8
10o 1 3 0 22 4 38.3 64 33 27 8 51% .408 -18 2.52 9.52 0 9.71 14.8 6.8 5.5 1.7 -18.0 -1.5 -1.5
Weighted Mean 2 3 0 27 5 51.7 64 34 42 7 51% .352 0 1.90 6.33 0 6.56 11.1 5.2 6.4 1.1 -5.2 -0.3 -0.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

35%

69%

11%

13%

1.12

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2009 (age 24) 2 3 0 27 5 51.7 64 34 42 7 51% .352 0 1.90 6.33 0 6.56 11.1 5.2 6.4 1.1 -5.2 -0.3 -0.2
2010 (age 25) 3 3 0 25 6 52.3 62 34 43 6 51% .341 1 1.82 5.76 0 5.97 10.6 5.1 6.3 1.0 -1.5 0.0 0.1
2011 (age 26) 3 3 0 24 6 53.0 62 33 41 6 48% .335 1 1.77 5.56 0 5.77 10.4 4.8 6.1 1.0 -0.6 0.2 0.2
2012 (age 27) 3 3 0 26 6 56.0 62 32 45 4 51% .333 5 1.68 4.90 0 5.13 9.9 4.5 6.2 0.6 1.9 0.5 0.4
2013 (age 28) 3 3 1 24 5 50.3 54 28 46 5 52% .332 9 1.64 5.01 0 5.24 9.6 4.5 7.1 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.2
2014 (age 29)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 30)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .265 .383 .396
vs RHB .280 .389 .442
Split -.015 -.006 -.046
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2009 -0.2 $400,000 -6.0 0.5
2010 0.1 $425,000 -2.2 1.0
2011 0.2 $625,000 -1.2 1.2
2012 0.4 $1,000,000 1.5 2.2
2013 0.2 $825,000 0.7 0.9
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 1.3 $975,000 3.0 6.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 5.43 6.63 7.92 6.56
2010 5.09 6.29 7.01 5.97
2011 4.93 5.69 6.98 5.77
2012 4.44 5.45 6.34 5.13
2013 4.21 5.09 6.52 5.24
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 13% 0% 35%
2010 34% 22% 42%
2011 39% 31% 48%
2012 59% 47% 48%
2013 67% 62% 46%
2014 79% 69% 42%
2015 80% 73% 32%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

50

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Jean Machi 2007 42 11 Victor Zambrano 2000 32
2 Mike Zagurski 2007 42 12 Ben Julianel 2004 31
3 Tony Castillo 1988 41 13 Dom Konieczki 1994 31
4 Randy Choate 2000 40 14 Steven Zongor 1995 30
5 Brian Shouse 1993 40 15 Bryan Eversgerd 1994 29
6 Eddie Oropesa 1996 38 16 Clay Rapada 2006 29
7 Mike Gardella 1991 36 17 Ryan Rowland-Smith 2007 29
8 Juan Padilla 2002 35 18 Steve Mumaw 1988 28
9 Felix Romero 2005 34 19 Jose Vargas 2002 28
10 Reid Santos 2007 33 20 Isidro Marquez 1990 28

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