Scott Elbert

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 8:41 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	9	5	0	20	20	119.3	92	70	135	13	39%	.271	30	1.36	3.28	4.02	3.42	6.8	4.7	9.0	0.9	31.9	4.1	4.3
75^o	7	5	0	20	20	112.3	91	72	125	13	39%	.278	25	1.45	3.88	4.50	4.04	7.1	5.1	8.8	1.0	21.9	3.0	3.3
60^o	6	6	0	19	19	102.7	89	74	111	14	39%	.287	18	1.58	4.74	5.19	4.93	7.6	5.8	8.6	1.2	9.5	1.7	2.0
50^o	5	6	0	19	19	98.3	88	75	105	14	39%	.291	15	1.65	5.13	5.50	5.35	7.8	6.1	8.5	1.2	4.4	1.2	1.5
40^o	5	7	0	18	18	94.0	86	75	100	14	39%	.295	12	1.71	5.53	5.83	5.77	8.0	6.4	8.4	1.3	-0.4	0.7	1.0
25^o	4	7	0	18	18	86.7	84	75	90	14	39%	.303	7	1.82	6.25	6.41	6.52	8.4	6.9	8.2	1.4	-7.8	-0.1	0.2
10^o	2	6	0	19	14	69.0	75	71	68	13	39%	.320	-10	2.11	8.12	7.87	8.48	9.5	8.3	7.8	1.6	-21.9	-1.7	-1.4
Weighted Mean	6	6	0	18	18	96.3	83	69	104	13	39%	.287	18	1.58	4.75	5.17	4.95	7.6	5.7	8.6	1.1	8.3	1.6	1.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
25%	43%	27%	26%	1.23

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 22)	6	6	0	18	18	96.3	83	69	104	13	39%	.287	18	1.58	4.75	5.17	4.95	7.6	5.7	8.6	1.1	8.3	1.6	1.6
2009 (age 23)	6	6	0	27	16	103.0	90	63	105	15	38%	.277	12	1.48	4.49	4.91	4.67	7.6	4.9	8.1	1.3	11.3	1.9	2.0
2010 (age 24)	5	5	0	24	13	83.7	71	51	84	11	38%	.273	11	1.45	4.31	4.60	4.51	7.4	4.8	7.9	1.1	12.6	1.7	2.1
2011 (age 25)	5	5	1	27	13	89.3	74	56	95	9	39%	.285	15	1.46	4.14	4.46	4.35	7.3	5.0	8.4	0.8	12.4	1.9	1.9
2012 (age 26)	7	7	1	35	16	112.3	102	65	107	15	39%	.284	8	1.49	4.56	4.90	4.77	8.0	4.6	7.6	1.2	9.3	1.8	1.7
2013 (age 27)	5	5	1	34	11	87.7	74	55	89	9	40%	.280	10	1.47	4.25	4.61	4.46	7.4	5.0	8.0	0.9	10.8	1.6	1.8
2014 (age 28)	4	3	1	25	7	60.7	54	33	54	8	39%	.272	5	1.42	4.22	4.57	4.42	7.7	4.4	7.1	1.1	10.2	1.1	1.6

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.194	.340	.331
vs RHB	.224	.370	.393
Split	-.030	-.029	-.062
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	1.6	$2,750,000	6.4	10.1
2009	2.0	$3,900,000	9.6	16.5
2010	2.1	$4,600,000	11.0	11.9
2011	1.9	$4,725,000	11.0	10.6
2012	1.7	$3,975,000	7.7	13.1
2013	1.8	$4,750,000	9.5	10.5
2014	1.6	$4,700,000	9.0	7.6
Peak	11.1	$18,625,000	48.8	72.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.04	5.35	6.52	4.95
2009	3.59	5.14	6.08	4.67
2010	3.68	4.71	5.76	4.51
2011	3.88	4.74	6.25	4.35
2012	3.84	4.87	6.84	4.77
2013	3.62	5.09	6.97	4.46
2014	3.66	4.61	5.73	4.42

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	26%	0%	25%
2009	26%	9%	26%
2010	31%	8%	29%
2011	49%	22%	30%
2012	44%	22%	31%
2013	40%	27%	30%
2014	57%	36%	26%

10

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Cole Hamels	2006	60		11	Arthur Rhodes	1992	21
2	Lance Dickson	1992	34		12	Radhames Liz	2006	20
3	Jim Parque	1998	30		13	Doug Bochtler	1993	20
4	Dick Weik	1950	29		14	Scott Sullivan	1994	20
5	Mitch Williams	1987	27		15	Damian Moss	1999	19
6	Justin Orenduff	2006	25		16	Thomas Diamond	2006	19
7	Scott Linebrink	1999	25		17	Mike Drumright	1997	19
8	Angel Miranda	1992	22		18	Donnie Veal	2007	18
9	Chan_Ho Park	1996	21		19	Jim Maloney	1963	17
10	Shawn Estes	1996	21		20	B.J. Wallace	1994	17

Player Comments

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2007

Chosen seventeenth in the 2004 draft, Elbert is the Next Big Thing among Dodger pitching prospects, and some consider him the top left-handed pitching prospect in the minors. He`s a true power lefty, with a 90 to 93 MPH fastball, workable changeup, and big-breaking slider that he occasionally has trouble throwing for strikes. He blazed through the Florida State League, struggling with his control at times, but avoiding the home run ball even in a park heavily favoring hitters. Promoted to Jacksonville, Elbert took his lumps; his walk and homer rates were unsightly, and he gave up far more fly balls than at the lower level, something which may cause grief when he reaches Las Vegas. For all of his control issues--none of which are out of the ordinary for lefty pitching prospects--batters still had a very tough time making contact against him, hitting just .192/.313/.312 for the year. Mechanical tweaks Elbert made in the Instructional League may smooth out his delivery, making him even more effective. Rumors of a shift to the bullpen continue to follow him, but, for now, he`ll remain a starter.

2006

The Dodgers` 1^st-round pick in 2004 (another high-schooler), Elbert fared well in his first full season of pro ball, and wound up rated the top prospect in the Sally League. Though he struggled a bit with command, he missed enough bats with his low-90s fastball and power curve , holding opponents to a .200 batting average. Elbert closed the year by posting a 1.96 ERA over his final 12 starts. There`s been talk of shifting him to the pen, but he`ll settle for Vero Beach in `06.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	CGA	1B	8	5	0	25	24	115.0	83	57	128	8	49%	.269	-13	1.22	2.66	6.20	5.22	8.5	7.7	5.7	1.6	4.2		2.1
2006	VRO	1C	5	5	0	17	15	83.1	57	41	97	4	47%	.275	4	1.18	2.38	4.63	4.13	7.1	6.2	6.5	0.9	12.5		2.6
2006	JAX	2A	6	4	0	11	11	62.0	40	44	76	11	33%	.254	-7	1.35	3.63	8.35	6.43	8.5	7.2	7.9	3.1	-5.2		0.4
2007	JAX	2A	0	1	0	3	3	14.0	6	10	24	0	26%	.261	30	1.14	3.86	3.34	4.85	5.5	6.9	10.4	0.0	1.1		0.3

Historical Stats