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Scott Elbert
Los Angeles Dodgers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 22
6' 2"
190 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 CGA 1B 8 5 0 25 24 115.0 83 57 128 8 49% .269 -13 1.22 2.66 6.20 5.22 8.5 7.7 5.7 1.6 4.2 2.1
2006 VRO 1C 5 5 0 17 15 83.1 57 41 97 4 47% .275 4 1.18 2.38 4.63 4.13 7.1 6.2 6.5 0.9 12.5 2.6
2006 JAX 2A 6 4 0 11 11 62.0 40 44 76 11 33% .254 -7 1.35 3.63 8.35 6.43 8.5 7.2 7.9 3.1 -5.2 0.4
2007 JAX 2A 0 1 0 3 3 14.0 6 10 24 0 26% .261 30 1.14 3.86 3.34 4.85 5.5 6.9 10.4 0.0 1.1 0.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 8:41 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 9 5 0 20 20 119.3 92 70 135 13 39% .271 30 1.36 3.28 4.02 3.42 6.8 4.7 9.0 0.9 31.9 4.1 4.3
75o 7 5 0 20 20 112.3 91 72 125 13 39% .278 25 1.45 3.88 4.50 4.04 7.1 5.1 8.8 1.0 21.9 3.0 3.3
60o 6 6 0 19 19 102.7 89 74 111 14 39% .287 18 1.58 4.74 5.19 4.93 7.6 5.8 8.6 1.2 9.5 1.7 2.0
50o 5 6 0 19 19 98.3 88 75 105 14 39% .291 15 1.65 5.13 5.50 5.35 7.8 6.1 8.5 1.2 4.4 1.2 1.5
40o 5 7 0 18 18 94.0 86 75 100 14 39% .295 12 1.71 5.53 5.83 5.77 8.0 6.4 8.4 1.3 -0.4 0.7 1.0
25o 4 7 0 18 18 86.7 84 75 90 14 39% .303 7 1.82 6.25 6.41 6.52 8.4 6.9 8.2 1.4 -7.8 -0.1 0.2
10o 2 6 0 19 14 69.0 75 71 68 13 39% .320 -10 2.11 8.12 7.87 8.48 9.5 8.3 7.8 1.6 -21.9 -1.7 -1.4
Weighted Mean 6 6 0 18 18 96.3 83 69 104 13 39% .287 18 1.58 4.75 5.17 4.95 7.6 5.7 8.6 1.1 8.3 1.6 1.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

25%

43%

27%

26%

1.23

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 22) 6 6 0 18 18 96.3 83 69 104 13 39% .287 18 1.58 4.75 5.17 4.95 7.6 5.7 8.6 1.1 8.3 1.6 1.6
2009 (age 23) 6 6 0 27 16 103.0 90 63 105 15 38% .277 12 1.48 4.49 4.91 4.67 7.6 4.9 8.1 1.3 11.3 1.9 2.0
2010 (age 24) 5 5 0 24 13 83.7 71 51 84 11 38% .273 11 1.45 4.31 4.60 4.51 7.4 4.8 7.9 1.1 12.6 1.7 2.1
2011 (age 25) 5 5 1 27 13 89.3 74 56 95 9 39% .285 15 1.46 4.14 4.46 4.35 7.3 5.0 8.4 0.8 12.4 1.9 1.9
2012 (age 26) 7 7 1 35 16 112.3 102 65 107 15 39% .284 8 1.49 4.56 4.90 4.77 8.0 4.6 7.6 1.2 9.3 1.8 1.7
2013 (age 27) 5 5 1 34 11 87.7 74 55 89 9 40% .280 10 1.47 4.25 4.61 4.46 7.4 5.0 8.0 0.9 10.8 1.6 1.8
2014 (age 28) 4 3 1 25 7 60.7 54 33 54 8 39% .272 5 1.42 4.22 4.57 4.42 7.7 4.4 7.1 1.1 10.2 1.1 1.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .194 .340 .331
vs RHB .224 .370 .393
Split -.030 -.029 -.062
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.6 $2,750,000 6.4 10.1
2009 2.0 $3,900,000 9.6 16.5
2010 2.1 $4,600,000 11.0 11.9
2011 1.9 $4,725,000 11.0 10.6
2012 1.7 $3,975,000 7.7 13.1
2013 1.8 $4,750,000 9.5 10.5
2014 1.6 $4,700,000 9.0 7.6
Peak 11.1 $18,625,000 48.8 72.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.04 5.35 6.52 4.95
2009 3.59 5.14 6.08 4.67
2010 3.68 4.71 5.76 4.51
2011 3.88 4.74 6.25 4.35
2012 3.84 4.87 6.84 4.77
2013 3.62 5.09 6.97 4.46
2014 3.66 4.61 5.73 4.42


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 26% 0% 25%
2009 26% 9% 26%
2010 31% 8% 29%
2011 49% 22% 30%
2012 44% 22% 31%
2013 40% 27% 30%
2014 57% 36% 26%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

10

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Cole Hamels 2006 60 11 Arthur Rhodes 1992 21
2 Lance Dickson 1992 34 12 Radhames Liz 2006 20
3 Jim Parque 1998 30 13 Doug Bochtler 1993 20
4 Dick Weik 1950 29 14 Scott Sullivan 1994 20
5 Mitch Williams 1987 27 15 Damian Moss 1999 19
6 Justin Orenduff 2006 25 16 Thomas Diamond 2006 19
7 Scott Linebrink 1999 25 17 Mike Drumright 1997 19
8 Angel Miranda 1992 22 18 Donnie Veal 2007 18
9 Chan_Ho Park 1996 21 19 Jim Maloney 1963 17
10 Shawn Estes 1996 21 20 B.J. Wallace 1994 17

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Chosen seventeenth in the 2004 draft, Elbert is the Next Big Thing among Dodger pitching prospects, and some consider him the top left-handed pitching prospect in the minors. He`s a true power lefty, with a 90 to 93 MPH fastball, workable changeup, and big-breaking slider that he occasionally has trouble throwing for strikes. He blazed through the Florida State League, struggling with his control at times, but avoiding the home run ball even in a park heavily favoring hitters. Promoted to Jacksonville, Elbert took his lumps; his walk and homer rates were unsightly, and he gave up far more fly balls than at the lower level, something which may cause grief when he reaches Las Vegas. For all of his control issues--none of which are out of the ordinary for lefty pitching prospects--batters still had a very tough time making contact against him, hitting just .192/.313/.312 for the year. Mechanical tweaks Elbert made in the Instructional League may smooth out his delivery, making him even more effective. Rumors of a shift to the bullpen continue to follow him, but, for now, he`ll remain a starter.

2006

The Dodgers` 1st-round pick in 2004 (another high-schooler), Elbert fared well in his first full season of pro ball, and wound up rated the top prospect in the Sally League. Though he struggled a bit with command, he missed enough bats with his low-90s fastball and power curve , holding opponents to a .200 batting average. Elbert closed the year by posting a 1.96 ERA over his final 12 starts. There`s been talk of shifting him to the pen, but he`ll settle for Vero Beach in `06.


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