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He's probably very handsome. Daniel Dorn
Cincinnati Reds [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Left Field
Bats L
Age 23
6' 2"
205 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 BIL 0R 249 48 17 2 8 40 36 36 3 0 -1.4 .354 .457 .573 .520 .267 .343 .407 .264 1.4 50-LF 5 1.4
2007 SAR 1C 387 49 21 1 12 66 32 69 3 1 0.0 .281 .359 .456 .142 .245 .313 .409 .251 -6.1 74-LF -15 1.6
2007 CHT 2A 109 20 6 1 8 21 15 23 1 0 0.2 .311 .422 .667 .504 .280 .376 .624 .322 10.9 14-LF 1 1.5


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 9:23 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 545 81 32 3 24 81 57 111 7 2 -0.2 .284 .367 .516 .155 .280 .363 .508 .293 26.9 128-LF -3 4.8
75o 534 74 30 2 22 75 53 112 7 2 -0.2 .274 .354 .491 .092 .271 .350 .483 .282 18.6 126-LF -2 4.2
60o 521 66 28 2 20 69 49 112 6 2 -0.2 .264 .339 .463 .022 .260 .336 .456 .269 9.8 123-LF -2 3.4
50o 513 61 26 2 18 66 46 111 6 2 -0.2 .257 .330 .446 -.023 .253 .326 .438 .261 4.4 121-LF -2 2.9
40o 509 60 26 2 18 64 45 111 5 2 -0.2 .254 .326 .439 -.039 .251 .323 .432 .258 2.4 120-LF -2 2.7
25o 496 53 24 2 16 58 41 111 5 2 -0.1 .244 .312 .413 -.107 .240 .309 .406 .245 -5.4 117-LF -2 2.0
10o 487 49 23 2 14 54 38 111 5 2 -0.1 .237 .303 .396 -.149 .234 .300 .390 .236 -10.0 115-LF -2 1.6
Weighted Mean 558 71 29 2 20 73 51 121 6 2 -0.2 .260 .334 .453 -.004 .256 .330 .446 .263 9.5 131-LF -2 3.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

22%

49%

19%

9%

0.85

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 23) 558 71 29 2 20 73 51 121 6 2 -0.2 .260 .334 .453 -.004 .256 .330 .446 .263 9.5 131-LF -2 3.1
2009 (age 24) 509 65 26 2 20 69 48 104 5 2 -0.2 .267 .343 .469 .039 .260 .334 .453 .271 10.4 120-LF -2 3.0
2010 (age 25) 516 67 27 2 20 70 49 103 5 2 -0.2 .269 .345 .473 .049 .261 .336 .457 .273 9.9 122-LF -3 2.6
2011 (age 26) 498 65 26 2 20 70 48 96 6 2 -0.2 .274 .350 .482 .073 .266 .341 .466 .277 11.0 118-LF -1 2.7
2012 (age 27) 533 77 30 2 24 81 55 98 6 2 -0.2 .281 .362 .508 .133 .273 .352 .491 .288 14.3 125-LF -2 2.7
2013 (age 28) 495 65 27 2 21 72 52 95 4 2 -0.1 .272 .352 .487 .081 .264 .342 .470 .278 8.4 117-LF -6 1.8
2014 (age 29) 519 72 27 2 24 78 56 99 6 2 -0.1 .271 .355 .498 .100 .263 .346 .481 .283 8.8 122-LF -4 1.9

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .227 .302 .400
vs RHP .272 .351 .508
Split -.044 -.049 -.109
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.8 1.3 3.1 $4,750,000 5.0 5.6
2009 1.9 1.0 3.0 $4,900,000 5.5 7.4
2010 1.8 0.9 2.6 $4,650,000 5.5 8.5
2011 1.8 0.9 2.7 $5,600,000 8.2 13.5
2012 2.0 0.7 2.7 $6,700,000 11.0 13.3
2013 1.3 0.4 1.8 $3,625,000 4.1 6.5
2014 1.4 0.5 1.9 $4,600,000 5.9 8.2
Peak 15.9 $23,100,000 40.3 57.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .282 .261 .245 .263
2009 .290 .270 .253 .271
2010 .290 .277 .254 .273
2011 .304 .272 .244 .277
2012 .310 .291 .264 .288
2013 .289 .275 .267 .278
2014 .303 .287 .236 .283


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 9% 0% 22%
2009 16% 4% 30%
2010 23% 16% 30%
2011 36% 22% 34%
2012 46% 35% 38%
2013 51% 45% 25%
2014 62% 48% 30%

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