<< PECOTA Home Player Search     
');// -->

Ian Desmond
Washington Nationals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Shortstop
Bats R
Age 22
6' 2"
185 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 SAV 1B 320 37 10 2 4 23 13 60 20 6 2.7 .247 .291 .334 -.134 .194 .224 .260 .165 -29.1 72-SS 0 -0.2
2005 POT 1C 248 37 13 3 3 15 21 53 13 6 2.7 .256 .325 .384 -.040 .207 .261 .304 .199 -12.1 54-SS -6 0.2
2006 POT 1C 408 50 20 2 9 45 29 79 14 8 2.5 .244 .313 .384 -.017 .212 .261 .339 .207 -14.7 89-SS -14 -0.5
2006 HAR 2A 132 8 4 1 0 3 5 35 4 1 -0.3 .182 .214 .231 -.398 .169 .202 .218 .135 -15.9 36-SS -7 -0.5
2007 POT 1C 536 69 30 4 13 45 57 99 27 11 -5.9 .264 .357 .432 .118 .218 .290 .354 .228 -7.0 127-SS 1 3.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 9:08 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 619 79 35 3 17 66 51 136 22 7 1.1 .253 .322 .420 -.073 .253 .322 .428 .258 20.0 145-SS -5 4.7
75o 587 64 31 3 13 58 44 135 19 7 1.0 .236 .300 .379 -.177 .236 .301 .387 .238 4.5 137-SS -4 3.4
60o 570 57 29 3 11 54 41 134 18 7 0.9 .229 .290 .360 -.225 .228 .291 .367 .228 -2.1 134-SS -3 2.8
50o 563 54 28 2 10 52 39 133 17 7 0.9 .225 .286 .352 -.248 .225 .286 .358 .223 -5.1 132-SS -3 2.5
40o 556 52 28 2 10 51 38 133 17 6 0.9 .222 .282 .345 -.265 .222 .282 .352 .219 -7.3 131-SS -3 2.3
25o 536 45 26 2 8 46 35 131 15 6 0.8 .213 .270 .323 -.320 .213 .271 .330 .207 -14.0 126-SS -2 1.7
10o 509 37 23 2 6 40 31 128 13 6 0.7 .202 .256 .297 -.389 .202 .256 .302 .190 -21.6 120-SS -1 0.9
Weighted Mean 613 62 31 3 12 57 43 145 19 7 0.9 .226 .287 .355 -.240 .226 .288 .362 .225 -1.2 143-SS -4 2.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

53%

77%

10%

8%

0.98

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 22) 613 62 31 3 12 57 43 145 19 7 0.9 .226 .287 .355 -.240 .226 .288 .362 .225 -1.2 143-SS -4 2.6
2009 (age 23) 541 55 27 2 11 51 41 122 15 6 0.7 .233 .296 .367 -.204 .229 .292 .367 .232 0.5 127-SS -4 2.2
2010 (age 24) 493 49 26 2 10 49 38 110 13 5 0.6 .236 .301 .376 -.180 .232 .297 .376 .236 2.6 116-SS -4 2.1
2011 (age 25) 571 64 29 3 14 60 45 116 14 6 0.5 .244 .311 .392 -.136 .239 .307 .393 .245 5.6 134-SS -8 1.8
2012 (age 26) 541 60 28 3 15 60 42 118 12 5 0.4 .246 .310 .405 -.118 .242 .306 .406 .248 6.0 127-SS -8 1.7
2013 (age 27) 566 64 30 3 15 63 45 125 14 6 0.3 .247 .311 .406 -.116 .243 .306 .406 .249 5.4 133-SS -8 1.5
2014 (age 28) 535 59 29 2 15 63 38 115 11 5 0.2 .253 .310 .415 -.102 .248 .306 .415 .250 5.0 126-SS -9 1.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .240 .303 .379
vs RHP .222 .281 .342
Split +.017 +.021 +.037
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.2 2.8 2.6 $3,200,000 -6.0 2.6
2009 0.1 2.1 2.2 $2,800,000 -4.3 1.9
2010 0.3 1.8 2.1 $2,750,000 -1.6 3.8
2011 0.5 1.3 1.8 $2,450,000 -0.3 3.1
2012 0.6 1.1 1.7 $2,625,000 1.0 2.8
2013 0.5 1.0 1.5 $2,575,000 1.4 3.0
2014 0.4 1.0 1.4 $2,600,000 1.8 2.9
Peak 12.0 $11,725,000 5.7 17.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .238 .223 .207 .225
2009 .253 .231 .217 .232
2010 .253 .237 .217 .236
2011 .267 .247 .225 .245
2012 .266 .252 .223 .248
2013 .268 .252 .225 .249
2014 .266 .250 .230 .250


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 8% 0% 53%
2009 21% 10% 62%
2010 34% 18% 59%
2011 47% 38% 61%
2012 57% 43% 60%
2013 61% 53% 55%
2014 69% 59% 56%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Maybe it was a matter of trying to keep up with the Joneses--the local soccer team, D.C. United, has teen phenom Freddy Adu, so the Nats just had to have someone young and gifted that they could hype up to appeal to . . . well, whoever gets worked up about these things. Unfortunately, Desmond is terribly unready for the limelight. Though the Nats started him off in Double-A, they quickly recognized that was a reach. He has the physical tools to be a good shortstop, including a strong arm, but he`s not fundamentally sound. His hitting is similarly sketchy--he simply lacks anything resembling pitch recognition, and, although he has some strength, he`s easily carved up by pitchers who can bust him inside or get him to go fishing. Most likely, he`ll flop, and it doesn`t help that the team is talking about getting him back up to Double-A without a solid season at A-ball.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.