Bryson Cox

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 8:08 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	4	3	0	36	5	71.3	73	37	31	5	56%	.281	-14	1.54	4.37	4.43	4.39	8.6	4.3	3.6	0.7	10.1	1.1	1.6
75^o	3	4	0	34	5	67.0	76	38	28	7	56%	.296	-19	1.69	5.38	5.22	5.36	9.5	4.7	3.4	0.9	1.5	0.3	0.7
60^o	3	4	0	34	5	64.7	77	39	26	7	56%	.304	-23	1.78	5.98	5.68	5.93	10.0	4.9	3.3	1.0	-3.2	-0.1	0.3
50^o	3	4	0	33	5	62.0	78	39	24	8	55%	.314	-27	1.88	6.71	6.26	6.63	10.7	5.2	3.2	1.1	-8.4	-0.6	-0.2
40^o	2	4	0	32	5	59.0	80	39	21	9	55%	.326	-32	2.01	7.60	6.97	7.48	11.4	5.5	3.0	1.3	-14.2	-1.1	-0.7
25^o	2	4	0	31	5	55.7	81	40	19	9	55%	.338	-38	2.15	8.54	7.75	8.36	12.3	5.8	2.8	1.5	-19.5	-1.6	-1.2
10^o	1	4	0	28	5	48.3	83	40	13	11	54%	.367	-52	2.53	10.81	9.86	10.42	14.5	6.8	2.2	2.0	-29.3	-2.5	-2.2
Weighted Mean	3	4	0	33	5	62.7	79	39	24	8	55%	.313	-27	1.87	6.69	6.21	6.61	10.6	5.1	3.2	1.1	-8.1	-0.6	-0.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
34%	60%	20%	11%	1.36

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 23)	3	4	0	33	5	62.7	79	39	24	8	55%	.313	-27	1.87	6.69	6.21	6.61	10.6	5.1	3.2	1.1	-8.1	-0.6	-0.1
2009 (age 24)	3	4	0	34	5	64.3	79	37	28	8	56%	.316	-23	1.80	6.20	5.82	6.16	10.4	4.7	3.6	1.0	-3.3	-0.3	0.2
2010 (age 25)	3	4	0	35	6	68.3	81	37	30	7	55%	.308	-21	1.72	5.79	5.42	5.75	10.0	4.4	3.6	0.9	-1.0	0.0	0.3
2011 (age 26)	3	4	0	34	5	63.3	76	34	32	6	57%	.318	-16	1.73	5.64	5.35	5.63	10.1	4.5	4.2	0.8	-0.3	0.1	0.3
2012 (age 27)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 28)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.271	.400	.422
vs RHB	.268	.377	.388
Split	+.003	+.023	+.035
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.0	$400,000	-7.7	1.8
2009	0.2	$450,000	-3.1	0.6
2010	0.3	$525,000	-0.8	1.4
2011	0.3	$500,000	-0.2	1.1
2012	0.3	$700,000	1.0	0.2
2013	0.2	$650,000	0.7	0.4
2014	0.1	$475,000	0.1	0.1
Peak	1.4	$725,000	1.8	5.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	5.36	6.63	8.36	6.61
2009	5.15	5.97	7.46	6.16
2010	4.21	6.06	7.05	5.75
2011	4.76	6.04	8.24	5.63
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	11%	0%	34%
2009	38%	34%	38%
2010	51%	48%	30%
2011	63%	57%	24%
2012	76%	76%	25%
2013	75%	75%	17%
2014	86%	81%	15%

51

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Chad Bradford	1998	50		11	Jack Cassel	2004	35
2	Carlos Hines	2004	46		12	Jeremy Accardo	2005	34
3	Blake Owen	2007	40		13	Matt Davis	2005	34
4	Ben Weber	1993	39		14	Sean White	2005	33
5	Rodney Ormond	2001	39		15	Richard Bartlett	2005	33
6	Josh Perrault	2006	38		16	Kurt Archer	1993	33
7	Patrick Ryan	2007	37		17	Marcus Davila	2005	33
8	Thomas King	2007	36		18	Pete Sikaras	2003	32
9	Michael Gardner	2005	35		19	Jose Santiago	1998	31
10	Justin Huisman	2003	35		20	Charlie Isaacson	2004	31

Player Comments

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2007

As a junior at Rice, Bryson Cox suffered a case of the strike-zone yips, but straightened out during his senior year to become one of the best relievers in college baseball on the strength of 96- to 98-MPH heat and a sharp-breaking slider. Some consider this third-rounder the steal of the 2006 draft.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	LOW	1A	0	1	0	3	0	5.2	6	2	3	0	90%	.300	-37	1.54	1.73	7.07	5.40	12.6	7.2	1.8	0.0	0.1		0.1
2006	WIL	1C	2	0	0	13	0	24.0	14	9	25	0	76%	.215	3	0.96	0.75	3.63	2.78	6.4	4.4	6.0	0.4	7.1		1.0
2007	GRN	1B	1	1	0	21	0	33.3	31	10	24	4	61%	.265	-33	1.23	5.41	6.14	7.59	9.0	4.5	3.1	2.0	-7.1		-0.1
2007	PME	2A	1	1	0	9	0	14.7	15	11	3	1	64%	.275	-56	1.77	4.90	6.23	9.42	9.4	7.5	0.6	1.3	-6.1		-0.4

Historical Stats