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Chris Coghlan
Florida Marlins [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Second Base
Bats L
Age 23
6' 1"
190 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 MRL 0R 7 2 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0.4 .286 .286 .286 -.065 .286 .286 .286 .193 -1.0 0.0
2006 JAM 1A 111 14 5 1 0 12 13 9 5 2 -0.5 .298 .373 .372 .111 .245 .309 .316 .227 -4.2 19-3B -2 0.3
2007 GRB 1B 360 60 26 4 10 64 47 43 19 4 0.6 .325 .419 .534 .331 .261 .341 .409 .265 12.4 75-2B 5 3.7
2007 JUP 1C 148 17 5 3 2 18 15 19 5 1 1.8 .200 .277 .331 -.130 .212 .277 .341 .221 -5.2 31-2B 6 0.9


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 8:14 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 640 107 44 6 13 68 74 98 25 7 1.8 .287 .372 .462 .095 .288 .371 .473 .290 42.1 149-2B 6 7.6
75o 597 84 39 5 10 57 62 96 20 7 1.5 .268 .347 .420 -.019 .269 .346 .430 .269 23.0 140-2B 5 5.7
60o 564 70 34 4 8 49 53 94 17 6 1.4 .254 .327 .389 -.105 .254 .326 .398 .252 10.3 132-2B 4 4.4
50o 551 65 33 4 7 46 50 93 16 6 1.3 .248 .320 .377 -.136 .249 .319 .386 .246 5.8 129-2B 4 4.0
40o 545 62 32 4 7 45 49 92 16 6 1.3 .246 .317 .372 -.152 .247 .316 .380 .243 3.8 128-2B 4 3.8
25o 515 52 29 3 5 38 43 90 13 6 1.2 .235 .300 .347 -.221 .235 .300 .355 .228 -5.0 121-2B 3 2.8
10o 479 42 25 3 4 31 36 86 11 5 1.0 .222 .282 .319 -.299 .222 .282 .327 .210 -13.5 113-2B 2 1.8
Weighted Mean 591 74 36 4 8 50 55 98 18 6 1.4 .252 .325 .385 -.114 .253 .324 .395 .250 12.1 138-2B 4 4.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

30%

61%

16%

4%

1.02

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 23) 591 74 36 4 8 50 55 98 18 6 1.4 .252 .325 .385 -.114 .253 .324 .395 .250 12.1 138-2B 4 4.3
2009 (age 24) 588 78 36 5 10 52 54 92 19 7 1.2 .263 .333 .409 -.061 .259 .327 .412 .259 14.5 138-2B 4 4.3
2010 (age 25) 507 62 30 4 9 47 48 79 13 5 1.0 .263 .335 .410 -.057 .259 .329 .412 .259 12.4 120-2B 2 3.6
2011 (age 26) 516 67 32 4 10 48 52 82 15 5 0.9 .265 .343 .422 -.026 .262 .336 .424 .266 14.6 122-2B 1 3.6
2012 (age 27) 491 61 31 4 10 46 49 73 12 5 0.8 .264 .341 .420 -.032 .260 .335 .422 .264 12.4 116-2B -1 2.9
2013 (age 28) 462 52 26 4 8 42 43 71 11 4 0.6 .256 .327 .394 -.097 .252 .321 .396 .252 6.0 110-2B 0 2.3
2014 (age 29) 624 83 36 5 9 61 57 90 13 7 0.5 .266 .337 .401 -.064 .263 .330 .403 .256 8.0 146-2B 1 2.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .225 .298 .339
vs RHP .262 .339 .419
Split -.037 -.041 -.080
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.2 3.2 4.3 $8,750,000 16.1 11.9
2009 1.6 2.7 4.3 $9,650,000 17.8 18.1
2010 1.3 2.2 3.6 $8,000,000 14.0 14.9
2011 1.5 2.1 3.6 $9,025,000 15.8 18.1
2012 1.3 1.6 2.9 $7,250,000 11.4 12.4
2013 0.8 1.5 2.3 $5,350,000 6.7 8.7
2014 0.8 1.4 2.3 $6,050,000 8.5 8.9
Peak 21.1 $38,650,000 81.7 84.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .269 .246 .228 .250
2009 .282 .264 .241 .259
2010 .278 .261 .246 .259
2011 .287 .266 .254 .266
2012 .280 .265 .251 .264
2013 .282 .259 .239 .252
2014 .278 .263 .243 .256


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 4% 0% 30%
2009 14% 7% 50%
2010 27% 9% 44%
2011 30% 16% 50%
2012 38% 22% 49%
2013 51% 33% 47%
2014 53% 44% 39%

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