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J.D. Closser
Chicago Cubs [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 28
5' 10"
200 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 COL MJ 272 31 12 2 7 27 32 48 1 0 0.3 .219 .314 .376 -.140 .207 .305 .371 .238 0.7 65-C -10 0.5
2006 CSP 3A 258 32 15 1 8 30 31 38 8 2 2.6 .298 .384 .480 .132 .263 .345 .430 .272 11.4 53-C 2 2.7
2006 COL MJ 112 10 3 1 2 11 12 23 0 1 0.3 .196 .288 .309 -.297 .186 .286 .299 .207 -5.3 26-C 2 0.6
2007 SAC 3A 338 45 16 2 11 45 48 67 0 2 -0.5 .238 .345 .423 .020 .215 .320 .384 .246 1.7 42-C -1 1.5
2007 NAS 3A 61 9 2 0 2 6 11 10 3 1 0.1 .188 .328 .354 -.176 .204 .328 .367 .253 0.1 12-C 0 0.4


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 8:13 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 408 69 23 2 18 54 57 80 8 2 0.1 .278 .381 .513 .167 .272 .375 .503 .298 28.7 97-C -6 4.6
75o 378 51 19 1 13 46 47 78 6 2 0.1 .249 .346 .439 -.011 .243 .340 .430 .266 11.1 90-C -7 2.9
60o 369 47 18 1 12 44 45 78 5 2 0.1 .241 .336 .420 -.057 .236 .331 .412 .257 7.0 89-C -7 2.5
50o 364 44 18 1 11 42 43 77 5 2 0.1 .236 .330 .407 -.087 .231 .325 .400 .251 4.4 87-C -7 2.2
40o 357 42 17 1 10 41 42 77 5 2 0.1 .231 .323 .394 -.120 .226 .319 .386 .245 1.6 86-C -7 1.9
25o 344 36 16 1 9 37 38 76 4 2 0.1 .220 .310 .366 -.188 .215 .305 .359 .231 -3.8 83-C -7 1.4
10o 325 29 14 1 7 33 34 74 3 2 0.1 .205 .291 .329 -.279 .201 .286 .323 .211 -10.4 79-C -7 0.6
Weighted Mean 357 44 18 1 11 41 43 76 5 2 0.1 .238 .332 .411 -.078 .232 .327 .403 .252 7.4 86-C -7 2.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

25%

56%

23%

21%

0.91

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 28) 357 44 18 1 11 41 43 76 5 2 0.1 .238 .332 .411 -.078 .232 .327 .403 .252 7.4 86-C -7 2.5
2009 (age 29) 329 40 15 1 11 41 40 71 4 2 0.0 .243 .338 .422 -.049 .234 .328 .407 .257 5.5 80-C -7 1.8
2010 (age 30) 326 41 17 1 11 43 40 68 4 2 0.0 .247 .342 .436 -.022 .238 .332 .420 .262 5.5 79-C -4 1.6
2011 (age 31) 275 31 13 1 9 35 34 59 3 1 0.0 .241 .338 .420 -.054 .232 .328 .405 .257 3.5 67-C -5 1.2
2012 (age 32) 275 32 14 1 10 35 35 55 3 1 0.0 .243 .342 .429 -.033 .234 .332 .414 .261 3.4 67-C -8 1.0
2013 (age 33) 264 31 13 1 8 33 36 49 3 1 0.0 .253 .357 .430 .001 .244 .346 .414 .269 3.6 65-C -8 0.8
2014 (age 34) 265 31 12 1 10 34 36 55 3 1 0.0 .246 .350 .437 -.008 .237 .339 .421 .267 2.9 65-C -7 0.7

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .239 .330 .398
vs RHP .237 .333 .421
Split +.001 -.004 -.022
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.8 1.6 2.5 $3,550,000 4.2 7.1
2009 0.8 1.0 1.8 $2,525,000 2.6 3.5
2010 0.7 0.9 1.6 $2,875,000 4.9 6.6
2011 0.5 0.7 1.2 $1,925,000 1.9 5.1
2012 0.5 0.5 1.0 $1,575,000 1.5 3.1
2013 0.4 0.4 0.8 $1,550,000 1.8 1.9
2014 0.4 0.3 0.7 $1,325,000 1.1 2.1
Peak 8.9 $10,050,000 17.0 27.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .266 .251 .231 .252
2009 .279 .264 .230 .257
2010 .278 .254 .230 .262
2011 .277 .246 .224 .257
2012 .283 .256 .231 .261
2013 .295 .277 .252 .269
2014 .299 .288 .236 .267


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 21% 0% 25%
2009 46% 18% 35%
2010 55% 36% 33%
2011 65% 44% 22%
2012 72% 52% 20%
2013 76% 60% 24%
2014 77% 62% 23%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

53

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
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Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Matt Treanor 1992 40 11 Rich Rowland 2003 33
2 Doug Mirabelli 1979 36 12 B.J. Waszgis 1971 33
3 George Williams 1981 36 13 Tom Wilson 1982 33
4 Mike Rose 1970 36 14 Tim Spehr 1960 33
5 Chris Bando 1973 35 15 Joe Nolan 2007 32
6 Raul Casanova 1992 35 16 Darren Daulton 1975 32
7 Tim Blackwell 1975 34 17 Pat Brady 1969 32
8 Bret Hemphill 1975 34 18 Craig Kuzmic 2000 31
9 Tom Prince 1957 34 19 Gary Allenson 1979 30
10 Jim Leyritz 1998 33 20 Mickey Tettleton 2005 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

The promise of 2004 appears to be gone despite a new hairdo and improved defense. For some idea of how far out of favor he fell in Colorado, realize that he was only called up in September after the team had given up on Danny Ardoin, of all people. Closser is a better hitter than he`s shown so far, but not so much that you`d want him to be your starter. Waived after the season and picked up by Milwaukee, he`ll spend 2007 waiting for an injury or trade to bring him back to the majors.

2005

The guy scouts keep comparing him to is Terry Steinbach, and that may be a fair comparison. Closser doesn't blow you away with any one facet of his game, but he's been consistent and successful at each level, his defense is well-regarded, and he's done everything that's asked of him. He should have a successful major league career, and could be a championship-caliber catcher. Closser could improve in any one of five or six areas and become a three- to four-win player.


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