Jeff Christy

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	ELZ	Rk	96	10	4	0	1	11	14	13	0	0	-0.3	.259	.375	.346	-.544	.159	.229	.227	.139	-24.8	20-C -1	-1.2
2006	FTM	A+	17	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0.0	.063	.118	.063	-.997	.062	.118	.062	.000	-4.5	5-C 0	-0.2
2007	FTM	A+	251	26	7	0	2	22	19	45	2	0	-1.3	.225	.288	.282	-.543	.177	.231	.220	.147	-32.0	62-C 0	-1.7
2007	NBR	AA	24	2	1	0	0	1	5	4	0	0	-0.3	.368	.500	.421	.041	.300	.417	.350	.284	1.2	7-C -2	0.0
2008	NBR	AA	88	10	4	0	0	4	12	14	0	0	1.1	.216	.322	.270	-.429	.184	.276	.237	.186	-7.9	24-C -1	-0.4
2008	ROC	AAA	111	14	6	0	0	5	15	26	0	1	-0.2	.211	.321	.278	-.349	.196	.306	.250	.205	-7.0	32-C 1	0.0

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:53 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	266	20	9	0	2	20	27	66	1	0	-0.5	.208	.293	.279	-.308	.210	.297	.292	.213	-8.4	65-C 0	0.4
75^o	257	16	8	0	2	17	23	65	1	0	-0.5	.189	.266	.247	-.412	.190	.270	.258	.186	-14.3	63-C 0	-0.2
60^o	251	14	7	0	1	16	21	64	1	0	-0.4	.177	.250	.227	-.474	.179	.253	.238	.167	-17.6	62-C 1	-0.6
50^o	248	13	7	0	1	15	20	64	1	0	-0.4	.172	.243	.218	-.503	.174	.246	.229	.158	-19.1	61-C 1	-0.7
40^o	243	11	6	0	1	14	19	63	1	0	-0.4	.166	.233	.207	-.539	.167	.236	.217	.145	-20.8	60-C 1	-0.9
25^o	234	9	5	0	0	12	16	62	1	0	-0.4	.154	.216	.188	-.602	.156	.220	.197	.118	-23.4	58-C 1	-1.3
10^o	209	6	4	0	0	7	12	58	0	0	-0.3	.132	.183	.151	-.726	.133	.186	.158	.046	-27.1	53-C 1	-1.6
Weighted Mean	251	12	7	0	1	15	20	65	1	0	-0.4	.169	.238	.213	-.508	.170	.241	.223	.152	-19.9	62-C 1	-0.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
28%	35%	47%	29%	1.26

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 25)	251	12	7	0	1	15	20	65	1	0	-0.4	.169	.238	.213	-.508	.170	.241	.223	.152	-19.9	62-C 1	-0.7
2010 (age 26)	237	12	7	0	1	14	20	62	1	0	-0.2	.163	.236	.218	-.509	.167	.243	.231	.155	-12.2	59-C 1	-0.4
2011 (age 27)	219	11	7	0	1	14	19	58	1	0	-0.1	.176	.251	.233	-.454	.180	.258	.247	.171	-6.6	55-C 1	0.0
2012 (age 28)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.186	.257	.243
vs RHP	.166	.232	.205
Split	+.020	+.024	+.038
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-16.9	1.0	-0.7	$400,000	-18.5	0.0
2010	-15.5	1.0	-0.4	$400,000	-12.1	0.1
2011	-11.8	1.0	0.0	$400,000	-5.9	0.1
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	$25,000	0.0	0.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.186	.158	.118	.152
2010	.187	.145	.113	.155
2011	.211	.184	.125	.171
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	29%	0%	28%
2010	55%	33%	22%
2011	72%	55%	27%
2012	83%	73%	23%
2013	86%	78%	23%
2014	89%	85%	23%
2015	92%	85%	19%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

66

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Bryan Graves	1999	62		11	Dave Liddell	1991	51
2	Brad King	2000	56		12	Scott Maynard	2002	51
3	J.C. Boscan	2005	54		13	Tim McKinley	1989	51
4	James Jones	1987	54		14	Chris Martine	2000	50
5	Robert Spurlin	1983	53		15	Roman Escamilla	1999	50
6	Jesse Baez	1982	53		16	Angel Morris	1988	50
7	Marc Loeb	1995	53		17	Mike Morland	1994	49
8	Joshua Emmerick	2006	53		18	Tom Carcione	1992	49
9	Mike Nickeas	2008	52		19	Luke Carlin	2006	49
10	Mike Seestedt	2003	52		20	Dave Huppert	1982	49

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