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He's probably very handsome. Welington Castillo
Chicago Cubs [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 21
6'
200 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 CUB 0R 28 4 0 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0.1 .192 .250 .192 -.431 .148 .148 .148 .000 -14.3 -0.3
2006 BOI 1A 8 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.0 .167 .286 .167 -.342 .143 .250 .143 .155 -1.9 0.0
2007 PEO 1B 353 41 11 2 11 44 23 77 1 3 -2.6 .271 .334 .423 .118 .221 .271 .337 .210 -13.7 82-C 1 1.8


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 7:56 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 455 48 24 2 13 52 28 105 4 2 -0.6 .250 .305 .406 -.125 .245 .300 .398 .237 2.9 108-C 4 3.3
75o 428 38 20 1 10 44 24 104 3 2 -0.5 .233 .284 .366 -.227 .228 .280 .359 .216 -7.2 102-C 3 2.2
60o 416 34 18 1 9 41 22 103 3 2 -0.5 .226 .275 .348 -.271 .221 .271 .342 .206 -11.2 99-C 2 1.7
50o 406 31 17 1 8 38 21 102 3 2 -0.5 .220 .268 .335 -.305 .215 .264 .329 .199 -14.0 97-C 2 1.4
40o 395 28 16 1 7 35 20 101 2 2 -0.4 .214 .260 .321 -.341 .210 .256 .315 .190 -16.9 94-C 1 1.0
25o 373 23 14 1 6 30 17 98 2 2 -0.4 .203 .247 .296 -.407 .199 .243 .290 .172 -21.5 89-C 0 0.4
10o 361 21 13 1 5 27 16 97 2 2 -0.4 .198 .240 .283 -.440 .193 .236 .278 .163 -23.5 87-C 0 0.1
Weighted Mean 425 33 18 1 8 40 22 107 3 2 -0.5 .220 .268 .336 -.304 .215 .264 .329 .198 -11.7 101-C 2 1.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

31%

53%

29%

7%

1.09

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 21) 425 33 18 1 8 40 22 107 3 2 -0.5 .220 .268 .336 -.304 .215 .264 .329 .198 -11.7 101-C 2 1.5
2009 (age 22) 394 32 16 1 8 39 24 94 3 2 -0.4 .224 .279 .342 -.273 .216 .270 .330 .206 -9.4 94-C 0 1.3
2010 (age 23) 374 32 16 1 9 38 24 87 3 2 -0.4 .232 .287 .362 -.227 .224 .279 .348 .216 -4.7 90-C 0 1.4
2011 (age 24) 350 31 14 1 10 39 22 76 3 2 -0.3 .244 .298 .385 -.168 .235 .289 .371 .228 -0.7 84-C -3 1.2
2012 (age 25) 338 31 14 1 9 40 21 73 2 2 -0.3 .248 .303 .390 -.152 .238 .293 .375 .231 0.0 82-C -3 1.0
2013 (age 26) 305 26 14 1 9 38 19 66 2 1 -0.2 .244 .295 .401 -.152 .235 .286 .386 .231 0.0 74-C -4 0.8
2014 (age 27) 364 34 13 1 12 44 25 76 2 1 -0.2 .241 .294 .397 -.162 .232 .285 .382 .230 -0.2 87-C -3 0.8

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .236 .286 .363
vs RHP .216 .262 .323
Split +.020 +.024 +.040
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -1.0 2.5 1.5 $1,625,000 -12.1 1.6
2009 -0.6 1.9 1.3 $1,425,000 -11.3 0.4
2010 -0.3 1.6 1.4 $1,625,000 -5.7 1.1
2011 0.0 1.2 1.2 $1,500,000 -3.6 3.2
2012 0.1 0.9 1.0 $1,300,000 -2.5 0.8
2013 0.1 0.7 0.8 $1,100,000 -2.0 1.6
2014 0.1 0.7 0.8 $1,175,000 -1.2 1.6
Peak 7.1 $5,200,000 -1.2 9.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .216 .199 .172 .198
2009 .225 .205 .187 .206
2010 .239 .214 .188 .216
2011 .239 .222 .203 .228
2012 .264 .240 .208 .231
2013 .262 .236 .214 .231
2014 .258 .231 .202 .230


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 7% 0% 31%
2009 17% 9% 44%
2010 37% 21% 48%
2011 44% 32% 55%
2012 56% 44% 53%
2013 63% 50% 57%
2014 70% 60% 53%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

63

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Raul Santana 1992 40 11 Fernando Lunar 2003 33
2 Iker Franco 1979 36 12 Javy Lopez 1971 33
3 Omar Fuentes 1981 36 13 Steve Torrealba 1982 33
4 Rene Pinto 1970 36 14 Julio Vinas 1960 33
5 Rudy Pena 1973 35 15 Gustavo Molina 2007 32
6 Wally Rosa 1992 35 16 Leroy Mckinnis 1975 32
7 Juan Apodaca 1975 34 17 Alvin Colina 1969 32
8 Guillermo Quiroz 1975 34 18 Scott Ackerman 2000 31
9 Robert Machado 1957 34 19 Rene Rivera 1979 30
10 Fred Torres 1998 33 20 Vic Valencia 2005 30

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