Biographical

Portrait of Carlos Carrasco

Carlos Carrasco PIndians

Indians Player Cards | Indians Team Audit | Indians Depth Chart

2017 Projections (Rest of Season Projections - seasonal age 30)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
12.0 3.38 1.19 13 2 1 0 0.2
Birth Date3-21-1987
Height6' 3"
Weight212 lbs
Age30 years, 6 months, 1 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
-0.02013
3.52014
6.02015
3.72016
5.22017
+proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
2009 CLE MLB 5 5 22.3 0 4 0 40 11 11 6 .255 103 16.1 4.4 2.4 4.4 48% .405 .379 2.28 7.12 8.87 111 7.28 156.1 -0.4
2010 CLE MLB 7 7 44.7 2 2 0 47 14 38 6 .255 107 9.5 2.8 1.2 7.7 57% .318 .281 1.37 4.10 3.83 84 3.46 78.1 0.9
2011 CLE MLB 21 21 124.7 8 9 0 130 40 85 15 .264 100 9.4 2.9 1.1 6.1 51% .293 .276 1.36 4.31 4.62 99 4.09 95.0 1.4
2013 CLE MLB 15 7 46.7 1 4 0 64 18 30 4 .263 98 12.3 3.5 0.8 5.8 50% .364 .322 1.76 4.12 6.75 101 4.86 116.3 -0.0
2014 CLE MLB 40 14 134.0 8 7 1 103 29 140 7 .263 104 6.9 1.9 0.5 9.4 54% .274 .204 0.99 2.46 2.55 77 2.58 63.4 3.5
2015 CLE MLB 30 30 183.7 14 12 0 154 43 216 18 .262 105 7.5 2.1 0.9 10.6 53% .304 .227 1.07 2.80 3.63 67 2.35 55.0 6.0
2016 CLE MLB 25 25 146.3 11 8 0 134 34 150 21 .260 112 8.2 2.1 1.3 9.2 50% .289 .234 1.15 3.67 3.32 83 3.14 69.5 3.7
2017 CLE MLB 30 30 186.0 16 6 0 161 43 206 21 .253 106 7.8 2.1 1.0 10.0 46% .302 .230 1.10 3.23 3.48 80 3.19 67.7 5.0
CareerMLB173139888.36052183323287698.2601058.42.41.08.951%.303.2461.203.443.83823.2573.820.1

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2005 LWD A 13 13 62.7 1 7 0 78 28 46 11 .260 85 11.2 4.0 1.6 6.6 43% .330 .298 1.69 5.90 7.03 0 0.00 0.0
2005 BAT A- 4 4 15.3 0 3 0 29 5 12 8 .275 73 17.1 2.9 4.7 7.1 35% .382 .478 2.22 10.02 13.53 0 0.00 0.0
2006 LWD A 26 26 159.1 12 6 0 103 65 159 6 .262 81 5.8 3.7 0.3 9.0 51% .260 .205 1.06 3.19 2.26 93 2.94 92.7
2007 CLR A+ 12 12 69.7 6 2 0 49 22 53 8 .253 100 6.3 2.8 1.0 6.8 47% .218 .221 1.02 4.48 2.84 97 2.64 89.3
2007 REA AA 14 13 70.3 6 4 0 65 46 49 9 .257 112 8.3 5.9 1.2 6.3 38% .264 .265 1.58 5.70 4.86 138 9.13 119.0
2008 REA AA 20 19 114.7 7 7 0 109 45 109 13 .253 107 8.6 3.5 1.0 8.6 47% .308 .248 1.34 4.12 4.32 70 1.69 81.2
2008 LEH AAA 6 6 36.7 2 2 0 37 13 46 1 .269 88 9.1 3.2 0.2 11.3 50% .353 .252 1.36 2.31 1.72 80 2.45 84.5
2009 CLE MLB 5 5 22.3 0 4 0 40 11 11 6 .255 103 16.1 4.4 2.4 4.4 48% .405 .379 2.28 7.12 8.87 111 7.28 156.1
2009 COH AAA 6 6 42.3 5 1 0 31 7 36 3 .248 112 6.6 1.5 0.6 7.7 40% .233 .203 0.90 2.86 3.19 81 2.51 83.7
2009 LEH AAA 20 20 114.7 6 9 0 118 38 112 14 .245 105 9.3 3.0 1.1 8.8 43% .315 .261 1.36 3.96 5.18 82 2.82 87.2
2010 CLE MLB 7 7 44.7 2 2 0 47 14 38 6 .255 107 9.5 2.8 1.2 7.7 57% .318 .281 1.37 4.10 3.83 84 3.46 78.1
2010 COH AAA 25 25 150.3 10 6 0 139 46 133 16 .257 108 8.3 2.8 1.0 8.0 49% .291 .237 1.23 3.96 3.65 90 3.32 91.4
2011 CLE MLB 21 21 124.7 8 9 0 130 40 85 15 .264 100 9.4 2.9 1.1 6.1 51% .293 .276 1.36 4.31 4.62 99 4.09 95.0
2011 AKR AA 1 1 3.7 0 0 0 4 3 3 1 .271 85 9.8 7.4 2.5 7.4 58% .273 .327 1.91 8.58 9.82 107 6.78 113.3
2013 CLE MLB 15 7 46.7 1 4 0 64 18 30 4 .263 98 12.3 3.5 0.8 5.8 50% .364 .322 1.76 4.12 6.75 101 4.86 116.3
2013 COH AAA 16 14 71.7 3 1 1 59 21 79 6 .255 101 7.4 2.6 0.8 9.9 45% .285 .234 1.12 3.21 3.14 82 3.25 92.4
2014 CLE MLB 40 14 134.0 8 7 1 103 29 140 7 .263 104 6.9 1.9 0.5 9.4 54% .274 .204 0.99 2.46 2.55 77 2.58 63.4
2015 CLE MLB 30 30 183.7 14 12 0 154 43 216 18 .262 105 7.5 2.1 0.9 10.6 53% .304 .227 1.07 2.80 3.63 67 2.35 55.0
2016 CLE MLB 25 25 146.3 11 8 0 134 34 150 21 .260 112 8.2 2.1 1.3 9.2 50% .289 .234 1.15 3.67 3.32 83 3.14 69.5
2016 AKR AA 1 1 4.0 0 0 0 7 1 6 1 .267 100 15.8 2.2 2.2 13.5 55% .600 .364 2.00 4.35 2.25 91 3.07 92.4
2017 CLE MLB 30 30 186.0 16 6 0 161 43 206 21 .253 106 7.8 2.1 1.0 10.0 46% .302 .230 1.10 3.23 3.48 80 3.19 67.7

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2009 395 0.4937 0.4456 0.8352 0.6410 0.2550 0.9120 0.6471 0.1648
2010 675 0.5244 0.4563 0.7532 0.6017 0.2960 0.8638 0.5053 0.2468
2011 1867 0.5270 0.4730 0.8052 0.6209 0.3080 0.8740 0.6507 0.1948
2013 779 0.4788 0.5160 0.8184 0.6810 0.3645 0.9134 0.6554 0.1816
2014 1947 0.5044 0.5018 0.7124 0.6365 0.3648 0.8384 0.4886 0.2876
2015 2765 0.4687 0.5146 0.7098 0.6620 0.3846 0.8427 0.5080 0.2902
2016 2230 0.4839 0.4910 0.7269 0.6413 0.3501 0.8483 0.5186 0.2731
2017 2864 0.4853 0.4791 0.7012 0.6165 0.3494 0.8425 0.4660 0.2988
Career135220.4920.49080.73640.63710.34870.85440.53020.2636

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2013-06-29 2013-06-29 DTD 0 0 - Low Back Spasms - -
2013-04-25 2013-04-25 Minors 0 0 Right Forearm Contusion - -
2012-03-15 2012-10-04 60-DL 203 162 Right Elbow Recovery From Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2011-09-21 -
2011-08-04 2011-09-29 60-DL 56 54 Right Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2011-09-21 -
2011-04-25 2011-05-10 15-DL 15 12 Right Elbow Inflammation -
2010-07-26 2010-08-07 Minors 12 0 Not Disclosed -
2010-07-20 2010-07-20 Minors 0 0 Right Forearm Strain -
2009-10-01 2009-10-01 DTD 0 0 Thigh Contusion Batted Ball -
2008-06-28 2008-07-11 Minors 13 0 Right Shoulder Stiffness -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2019 CLE $662,500
2018 CLE $8,000,000
2017 CLE $6,500,000
2016 CLE $4,500,000
2015 CLE $2,337,500
2014 CLE $504,700
2013 CLE $490,000
2012 CLE $488,500
2011 CLE $415,800
YearsDescriptionSalary
6 yrPrevious$8,736,500
2017Current$6,500,000
7 yrPvs + Cur$15,236,500
2 yrFuture$8,662,500
9 yrTotal$23,899,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
5 y 147 dLevinsons ACES4 years/$22M (2015-18), 2019-20 options

Details
  • 4 years/$22M (2015-18), plus 2019-20 club options. Signed extension with Cleveland 4/6/15, expanding one-year contract for $2.3375M signed 1/15/15, avoiding arbitration. 15:$2.3375M, 16:$4.5M, 17:$6.5M, 18:$8M, 19:$9M club option ($0.6625M buyout), 20:$9.5M club option ($0.6625M buyout). Club options may increase by $4M each based on finishes in Cy Young voting.
  • 1 year (2014). Re-signed by Cleveland 3/10/14.
  • 1 year/$0.49M (2013). Renewed by Cleveland 3/11/13. DFA by Cleveland 7/7/13 (optional assignment).
  • 1 year/$0.4885M (2012). Re-signed by Cleveland 3/3/12.
  • 1 year/$0.4158M (2011). Re-signed by Cleveland 3/8/11.
  • 1 year (2010). Re-signed by Cleveland 3/10/10. Optioned to Triple-A 4/1/10.
  • 1 year/$0.4M (2009). Contract purchased by Philadelphia 11/18/08. Re-signed by Philadelphia 2/23/09. Optioned 3/30/09. Acquired by Cleveland in trade from Philadelphia 7/29/09 (Cliff Lee deal). Recalled 9/1/09.
  • Signed by Philadelphia 2003 as an amateur free agent from Venezuela. $0.3M signing bonus.

2017 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 12.5 5.3 0 26 26 174.9 137 44 191 18 .271 1.03 2.53 2.69 43.3 4.7
80o 12.3 5.7 0 26 26 168.3 139 45 184 18 .283 1.10 2.85 3.02 37.9 4.1
70o 12.1 6 0 26 26 163.6 141 46 179 19 .291 1.15 3.08 3.27 33.8 3.7
60o 11.9 6.3 0 26 26 159.7 143 46 175 19 .298 1.19 3.28 3.48 30.3 3.3
50o 11.8 6.6 0 26 26 156.0 144 47 171 19 .305 1.23 3.46 3.68 27.0 2.9
40o 11.6 6.8 0 26 26 152.4 146 47 167 19 .312 1.27 3.65 3.88 23.7 2.6
30o 11.5 7.1 0 26 26 148.6 147 48 162 19 .319 1.31 3.86 4.09 20.3 2.2
20o 11.2 7.5 0 26 26 144.2 148 48 158 20 .328 1.36 4.10 4.35 16.0 1.7
10o 10.9 8 0 26 26 138.1 150 49 151 20 .339 1.44 4.44 4.71 10.1 1.1
Weighted Mean11.86.602626156.01434717119.3041.223.453.6627.43.0

2017 Rest-of-Season Forecast

Last Update: 9/21/2017 13:04 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 1 0.4 0 2 2 23.7 18 6 26 2 .269 1.00 2.50 2.62 3.3 0.4
80o 1 0.4 0 2 2 19.6 16 5 22 2 .281 1.06 2.81 2.95 2.9 0.3
70o 1 0.4 0 2 2 16.7 14 4 18 2 .290 1.11 3.04 3.19 2.6 0.3
60o 1 0.4 0 2 2 14.2 13 4 16 2 .297 1.15 3.24 3.4 2.3 0.3
50o 1 0.4 0 2 2 12.0 11 3 13 1 .304 1.19 3.42 3.6 2.1 0.2
40o 1 0.5 0 2 2 9.8 9 3 11 1 .310 1.23 3.61 3.8 1.8 0.2
30o 0.9 0.5 0 2 2 7.5 7 2 8 1 .318 1.27 3.81 4.01 1.6 0.2
20o 0.9 0.5 0 2 2 4.9 5 1 5 1 .326 1.32 4.05 4.27 1.2 0.1
10o 0.9 0.5 0 2 2 1.3 1 0 1 0 .338 1.39 4.38 4.62 0.8 0.1
Weighted Mean10.402211.7113131.3021.183.403.582.10.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
17% 50% 21% 9% 92%

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2017 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20183111902929176159491982251.3031.183.473.738.12.510.11.13.4
20193210902828172160511922351.3051.233.693.978.42.710.11.22.9
20203365017179893271151351.3141.223.533.808.52.510.51.21.9
202134111003030191179562172751.3101.233.683.968.42.610.21.33.1
20223511902828175167461982451.3131.223.553.828.62.410.21.23.2
2023369802525146141321502151.3021.183.724.008.72.09.21.32.5
20243712903232203173452552551.3031.073.073.307.72.011.31.14.6
20253812903232205183332482751.3081.063.083.318.01.510.91.24.6
2026398702222128140181412051.3411.233.603.879.81.39.91.42.4

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 79)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 88 David Price 2016 4.07
2 88 Felix Hernandez 2016 4.04
3 88 Adam Wainwright 2012 4.35
4 88 Doug Fister 2014 2.85
5 87 Erik Bedard 2009 3.14
6 87 CC Sabathia 2011 3.30
7 86 Anibal Sanchez 2014 3.93
8 85 Josh Beckett 2010 6.27
9 85 Randy Johnson 1994 3.40
10 85 John Lackey 2009 4.29
11 85 Jake Arrieta 2016 2.99
12 84 Corey Kluber 2016 3.43
13 84 Gio Gonzalez 2016 4.93
14 83 Jon Lester 2014 3.11
15 83 Cliff Lee 2009 3.42
16 83 Josh Johnson 2014 0.00 DNP
17 83 Brandon McCarthy 2014 4.50
18 82 Johnny Cueto 2016 2.92
19 82 Ben Sheets 2009 0.00 DNP
20 82 Ubaldo Jimenez 2014 4.88
21 82 Jeff Niemann 2013 0.00 DNP
22 82 Kris Medlen 2016 9.25
23 82 Gavin Floyd 2013 5.55
24 82 Wade Davis 2016 2.01
25 81 Matt Garza 2014 4.24
26 81 Charlie Furbush 2016 0.00 DNP
27 81 Zack Greinke 2014 3.07
28 81 Jason Hammel 2013 5.23
29 81 Dan Haren 2011 3.44
30 80 C.J. Wilson 2011 3.59
31 80 Carlos Zambrano 2011 4.94
32 80 Mark Buehrle 2009 4.05
33 80 Alexi Ogando 2014 6.84
34 80 Sean Marshall 2013 2.61
35 80 Clay Buchholz 2015 3.81
36 79 Roy Oswalt 2008 3.84
37 79 Joel Hanrahan 2012 2.72
38 79 Francisco Liriano 2014 3.77
39 79 Yovani Gallardo 2016 5.87
40 79 Roberto Hernandez 2011 5.96
41 79 Jordan Zimmermann 2016 5.42
42 79 Chris Young 2009 5.57
43 78 Cole Hamels 2014 2.64
44 78 Brett Myers 2011 4.83
45 78 Shaun Marcum 2012 4.14
46 78 Johan Santana 2009 3.62
47 78 Homer Bailey 2016 7.43
48 78 Joaquin Benoit 2008 5.60
49 78 Scott Feldman 2013 4.26
50 78 Joe Nathan 2005 2.83
51 78 Jake Peavy 2011 4.92
52 78 Hong-Chih Kuo 2012 0.00 DNP
53 78 Daisuke Matsuzaka 2011 5.79
54 78 Justin Verlander 2013 3.87
55 78 Justin Masterson 2015 5.76
56 78 Brandon Webb 2009 13.50
57 77 Bob Gibson 1966 2.89
58 77 Norm Charlton 1993 3.12
59 77 Juan Oviedo 2012 0.00 DNP
60 77 Craig Stammen 2014 4.21
61 77 Doug Davis 2006 5.22
62 77 Jered Weaver 2013 3.38
63 77 Mike Cuellar 1967 3.62
64 77 Jorge De La Rosa 2011 3.81
65 77 Ryan Madson 2011 2.37
66 76 Wandy Rodriguez 2009 3.37
67 76 Juan Cruz 2009 6.08
68 76 Jeff Karstens 2013 0.00 DNP
69 76 Barry Zito 2008 5.75
70 76 Jon Garland 2010 3.87
71 76 John Smoltz 1997 3.41
72 76 Gil Meche 2009 5.65
73 76 Brad Penny 2008 6.46
74 76 Kevin Gregg 2008 3.93
75 76 Brian Duensing 2013 4.28
76 76 Jose Guzman 1993 4.62
77 75 Anthony Swarzak 2016 5.90
78 75 Ryan Dempster 2007 4.86
79 75 Phil Coke 2013 5.63
80 75 Mickey Lolich 1971 3.18
81 75 James Shields 2012 4.03
82 75 Jason Schmidt 2003 2.43
83 75 Aaron Harang 2008 5.08
84 75 Tom Gorzelanny 2013 4.32
85 75 Tim Lincecum 2014 4.97
86 75 Micah Owings 2013 0.00 DNP
87 75 Paul Maholm 2012 3.81
88 75 A.J. Burnett 2007 4.02
89 75 Skip Lockwood 1977 3.46
90 75 Chris Resop 2013 7.00
91 75 Nate Robertson 2008 6.62
92 75 Rick Sutcliffe 1986 4.69
93 75 Robinson Tejeda 2012 0.00 DNP
94 74 Adam Ottavino 2016 2.92
95 74 Matt Clement 2005 4.81
96 74 John Maine 2011 0.00 DNP
97 74 Todd Wellemeyer 2009 6.47
98 74 Casey Janssen 2012 2.54
99 74 Nick Masset 2012 0.00 DNP
100 74 Sergio Mitre 2011 5.40

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .229 .288 .401 .237
11 vs R (Multi) .241 .278 .386 .227
18 Split (Multi) -.013 .010 .015 .010
19 LgAvg (Multi) .006 .020 .015 .013
30 vs L (2016) .235 .298 .441 .244
31 vs R (2016) .244 .276 .412 .226
38 Split (2016) -.010 .022 .030 .017
39 LgAvg (2016) .003 .018 .013 .012

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2017 Due to publishing agreements, the 2017 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2017 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2016 He's the ace-level starter you've heard the least about over the past two years. He's the master of an unbelievable slider with serious break and startling velocity—one of the best pitches in baseball. He's the guy with the best Corey Kluber impression in baseball, and who is darned close to overtaking the original.

Last season it was Cookie, not Kluber, who set the Cleveland franchise record for strikeout rate in a season for a starter (30 percent), who led the team in cFIP (66). He's signed to an unbelievably team-friendly contract, an extension signed on the basis of 14 good starts in 2014. It was aggressive and gutsy for the Indians to commit to a pitcher who, one year earlier, had seemed a fair bet to fade out of the league entirely. Today? He still doesn't get the recognition his skills deserve, but after another season like the last one he'll finally burst free of Kluber's shadow and start casting a long one of his own.

2015 Carrasco completely reinvented himself in 2014 and he stands on the precipice of a big season if the improvements from late in the year carry over. His fastball velocity has increased by three ticks since the right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in 2011, averaging 96 last season. He also features a pair of breaking pitches and a hard changeup, all of which proved to be unhittable. He began the year as a starter but was ineffective through four games, after which he was shuttled to the bullpen. He ditched his windup at that point, which allowed him to simplify his mechanics to a single timing pattern without losing effectiveness. Success in the 'pen brought him back to the starter's role, where he maintained the all-stretch approach, a simple fix that converted Carrasco into a pitcher with excellent command of his explosive stuff.
2014 Carrasco took his foot off the brakes—successful Tommy John surgery pushed his velocity from 93 to 95 mph—and then hit the gas, moving to the bullpen and adding another mile after July. Injuries in Cleveland led to a spot start in August, which only reinforced the notion that's he's more effective and more valuable in relief. Including that outing, he allowed at least 10 hits in four of his seven starts; compare that to a .396 OPS as a reliever. The team still considers him a starting pitcher, and he has four quality pitches, but there will be talk of a permanent move to the bullpen until he re-establishes himself in the rotation.
2013 Before Tommy John surgery sidelined him for the entire 2012 regular season, Carrasco was on his way to becoming a solid second or third starter. He'd been improving the control that gave him issues early in his professional career, and his plus stuff was allowing him to miss bats at the major-league level. Carrasco comes armed with a 93-mph fastball that he can add some sink to and a bouquet of quality off-speed offerings, including a changeup, slider, and curve. Pitchers returning from ligament replacement often take a year or two to regain all their velocity and effectiveness, however, so give Carrasco a break if he struggles a bit this year.
2012 Carrasco underwent Tommy John surgery in September, so this projection is mostly likely for 2013. Despite what looks on the surface like a poor 2011, Carrasco had an impressive year peripherally and seemed poised to become the best of the quartet of prospects that the Indians received for Cliff Lee. Of course, when Jason Donald and Lou Marson are in a group with you, that's kind of like having the best beard when your cohorts haven't started shaving yet. Armed with a 93-mph fastball, a plus change, and a solid breaking ball, Carrasco certainly has the stuff to be a number two starter if he can translate that stuff into a few more strikeouts.
2011 It's hard to know exactly what happened here. Maybe he saw a hypnotist, maybe he got kicked in the head by a horse, or maybe someone just sat Carrasco down and explained to him that he has all the ability in the world to be a good major-league starter and it sure pays pretty damn well. Or maybe none of that happened and Carrasco somehow figured out how to knuckle down with runners on base, which had been the frustrating bugaboo that defined his career. After a great second-half stretch at Triple-A Columbus, he went 6-for-7 in the quality start department for the big-league club, and he'll open the year with a rotation spot all but guaranteed. With a 92-94 mph fastball, decent breaking ball, and good changeup, there's no reason this can't continue, other than the fact that we've seen him not succeed with the same combination for a while. Guarded optimism would be the best way to approach things.
2010 One of the many prizes in the Cliff Lee trade, Carrasco will be competing for a spot in the rotation. The problem beyond his control is that with all of the acquisitions that the Indians made this year, there will be a lot of competition. He didn’t help his case with an awful September call-up, as his tendency to turn bad innings into game-losing nightmares continued. The scouting consensus is that he’s got a complete but not overly spectacular arsenal; at 23, he still has time for further development, especially given his moving low-90s fastball and plus changeup.
2009 The top prospect in the system entering the year, Carrasco didn't make any great leaps forward in 2008 as much as he simply held serve. He took some time to made adjustments to the more advanced hitters at the upper levels, but those adjustment were made and he was once again dominating against at the end of the year with his above-average fastball and outstanding changeup. He profiles as a solid third starter in the big leagues, with the potential to be a bit more, and he could be a key addition to the defending champs by midseason.
2008 Carrasco is generally considered the top arm in the Phillies' system, but despite reaching Double-A as a 20-year-old, he's not an elite-level prospect. Rather, he's something less than the sum of his parts. He boasts two above-average pitches (fastball, curve), one outstanding one (changeup), and good command, but his strikeout rates don't foretell of a future beyond that of a solid, mid-rotation innings-eater.
2007 There is a tendency for us here at BP to emphasize the physical and tangible over the mental. Carrasco started 2005 in the Sally League and got his head handed to him in his first couple of starts. The result was that he stopped believing in his stuff, tried to throw everything harder and harder, and reaped increasingly poor results. Last year he got off to a good start, pitched within his ability, and succeeded. The only tangible difference in 2006 was the addition of an improved curve to his low-90s fastball and excellent changeup. Scouts love his frame, and expect the skinny Venezuelan to fill out and get stronger.

BP Articles

Carlos Carrasco is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
BP En Espanol: Los lanzadores calificados para el titulo de ERA estan en extincionRob Mains2017-09-21
Flu-Like Symptoms: The Vanishing ERA QualifierRob Mains2017-09-21
Rubbing Mud: The Sinker Doesn't Play Well With OthersMatthew Trueblood2017-09-19
What You Need to Know: Streak of all StreaksBen Diamond2017-09-14
What You Need to Know: Hey NineteenStacey Gotsulias2017-09-12
BP En Espanol: Una Oda al SliderJeff Long2017-09-11
Pitching Backward: An Ode to the SliderJeff Long2017-09-11
What You Need to Know: Two Fastballs, One RookieBen Diamond2017-09-07
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 20Mark Barry2017-08-18
What You Need to Know: The Thin Line Between Diaz and RzepczynskiBen Diamond2017-08-17
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Fantasy Valuations: 2017 Fourth EditionMike Gianella2017-08-03
Short Relief: The Inverted Austin JacksonMeg Rowley2017-08-02
Short Relief: The Inverted Austin JacksonMatt Ellis2017-08-02
Short Relief: The Inverted Austin JacksonJason Wojciechowski2017-08-02
What You Need to Know: Gio's 99th Percentile DayBen Diamond2017-08-01
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Catching Up With The ToutsMike Gianella2017-07-13
Dynasty Prospect Rankings: The 2017 Midseason Top 50Bret Sayre2017-07-12
Dynasty Prospect Rankings: The 2017 Midseason Top 50Ben Carsley2017-07-12
What You Need to Know: Two-Hit WonderAshley Varela2017-07-10
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessIn-Season Fantasy Valuations: Third Edition—2017Mike Gianella2017-07-06
What You Need to Know: Lucky 13Stacey Gotsulias2017-06-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 13Mark Barry2017-06-23
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessIn-Season Fantasy Valuations: Second Edition—2017Mike Gianella2017-06-12
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessUpdating the Tiers: Starting PitcherMike Gianella2017-06-02
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 9Mark Barry2017-05-26
What You Need to Know: Shutouts and Almost ShutoutsEmma Baccellieri2017-05-24
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 8Mark Barry2017-05-19
What You Need to Know: Feels Like the First TimeAshley Varela2017-05-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 7Mark Barry2017-05-12
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 6Mark Barry2017-05-05
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Prospectus Feature: Pre-Season Staff PredictionsBP Staff2017-04-03
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Playoff Prospectus: World Series Preview: Cubs vs. IndiansAaron Gleeman2016-10-25
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Prospectus Feature: The Best Pitcher Nobody Cares AboutBryan Grosnick2016-09-15
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This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Monday, April 25thChristopher Crawford2016-04-26
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Draft Rankings: The Top 300Bret Sayre2016-03-17
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDynasty League Positional Rankings: The Top 175 Starting PitchersBret Sayre2016-03-03
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe -Only League Landscape: American League Starting PitchersMike Gianella2016-03-01
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Three-Year Projections: Top 50 Starting PitchersJ.J. Jansons2016-02-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessEarly ADP Analysis: Starting PitchersGeorge Bissell2016-02-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Tiered Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Part One: 1-55Mike Gianella2016-02-25
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Prospectus Feature: The Way-Too-Early Baseball Awards BreakdownBryan Grosnick2016-02-17
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Hey Hey Hey! It's Maaaatt Albers!Bryan Grosnick2016-01-27
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This article requires BP Premium accessPitching Backward: A Refresher on ChangeupsJeff Long2016-01-22
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This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of December 14-15Jeffrey Paternostro2015-12-16
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Categorical Breakdowns: WHIP: Over/UnderachieversJ.P. Breen2015-12-14
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessRetrospective Player Valuation: AL PitchersMike Gianella2015-11-19
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Categorical Breakdowns: Strikeouts: The General LandscapeGreg Wellemeyer2015-11-12
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This article requires BP Premium accessAn Agent's Take: The Old ReliableJoshua Kusnick2015-09-22
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Raisel Iglesias on the RiseGeorge Bissell2015-08-26
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Players to Target: Our Top Trade TargetsBP Fantasy Staff2015-07-16
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Five to Watch: Stocks on the RiseGeorge Bissell2015-07-08
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe Stash List: Second Edition, 2015Bret Sayre2015-04-16
Fantasy Rounders: Left InDoug Thorburn2015-04-15
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This article requires BP Premium accessRaising Aces: Mechanical Notes from Opening WeekDoug Thorburn2015-04-10
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessMy Model Portfolio: Find a Way to Get TroutBret Sayre2015-04-02
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDynasty League Positional Rankings: Top 175 Starting PitchersBret Sayre2015-02-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe -Only League Landscape: American League Starting PitchersNick Shlain2015-02-24
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This article requires BP Premium accessDaisy Cutter: How the Indians Ended Up With StarsSahadev Sharma2015-01-30
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BP Unfiltered: This Week's New Pitching Lines, 5/23Sam Miller2014-05-23
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Daily League Strategy: Riding TigersPaul Sporer2014-04-22
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Starting PitchersBen Murphy2014-02-28
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This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Cleveland IndiansKevin Goldstein2011-09-26
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Cleveland IndiansSteven Goldman2011-09-26
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Cleveland IndiansESPN Insider2011-09-26
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Tout Wars Halfway Point UpdateJason Collette2011-07-01
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This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Cleveland's Winning Ways Change Prospect PlansKevin Goldstein2011-05-04
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Fantasy Beat: BP Scoresheet Early Draft PrepRob McQuown2011-02-07
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Rotation PromotionsBill Baer2010-07-30
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2011-07-21 16:00:00 (link to chat)Thank you for the chat, Jason. Please rank the folowing SPs for the rest of the season (head-to-head, standard 5x5 cats): Colby Lewis, Jeff Niemann, Carlos Carrasco, and Josh Collmenter.
(Dennis from LA)
Lewis, Carrasco, Niemann, Collmenter (can't stay this lucky) (Jason Collette)
2011-07-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think the Indians, and to a lesser extent the Pirates, have a good chance to be divisional contenders next year as well?
(bigcity from NY)
Based on the divisions they're in: definitely. Indians still need another SP or two to take another step forward, but I like where they're at as a unit. Carlos Carrasco is a big key for me. He's turning into a very good SP. Plus as good as their bullpen is, Nick Hagadone's been good and Adam Miller's pitching again at AA which is a great story to root for (his Twitter avatar is a picture of the finger)

Pirates, I say 2013 could look really good. Cole, Tallion in the rotation: They have a system filled with mid-back of the rotation arms who could fill what they already have at the big league level. And you know what? I kinda like James McDonald. Not as an ace, but as a solid big league starter.

Cleveland's in a great spot because they'll be there right before KC's guys start to really make an impact, CHW is aging. Twins are, well, I respect the hell out of them because they just defy some logic and grind out every pitch. (Mike Ferrin)
2010-11-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)So good prospect + solid minor league season at AAA at 23 + solid end to the season in 7 starts = I don't like how the confirmation bias is winning out on that one? Yes, TINSTAAPP, but are you really using just his first 5 ML starts, at 22, to knock him at the same time you say you can't use a small time-frame? And yes, false-ish, or a medium would probably be appropriate.
(Chad from Cleveland)
You're not reading what I'm writing. I am not knocking Carlos Carrasco in any way. I am simply saying that just like his 5 bad starts last year didn't tell us much, his 7 good starts this season don't tell us much. I need to see a full season from him to really form an opinion. This is not negative. I just don't know what to think of him yet and refuse to just assume that 7 good starts last year, coupled with a solid minor league pedigree, means he is legit. That's literally all I am saying. I hope he is good next year, but I cannot say with confidence that he will be, because he has not done enough at the major league level to convince me. (Eric Seidman)
2010-11-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Beno Udrih: great point guard, or the greatest point guard?
(Ken from The Sconnie Office)
I don't know enough about Carlos Carrasco to answer this question. (Eric Seidman)
2010-07-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can the Indians be contenders in 2011? 2012?
(SaberTJ from Cleveland, OH)
The trouble with the Indians is going to be the pitching. Who knows when Jason Knapp will show up in the majors? Alex White looks good at Double-A but I'm not sure he's going to be able to do it alone. Until that problem is solved I think the Indians will struggle a bit. Don't even get me started on Carlos Carrasco. (Tommy Bennett)
2010-04-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Similar to Kane County question, who beyond Santana gives me a reason to walk one block to see the Clippers this summer?
(w friend from columbus)
Carlos Carrasco, Jeanmar Gomez, Hector Rondon and others await your visit. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-10-09 13:30:00 (link to chat)I'm seriously dying over here for some Carlos Carrasco info. DYING! Tell me he can still be a #2 or #3 in Cleveland
(Felicity from Rancho Cucomonga)
I can't tell you that. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-07-24 16:30:00 (link to chat)great work on your "royal" piece; following on that note, if after the season is over, the following scenario appears: Ryan Howard and Carlos Carrasco for Greinke and Kila: a) who do you think is getting the better deal? b)Would the Royals think they are getting the better deal?
(mo from las vegas)
Carrasco's stock has fallen precipitously lately and Kila, though highly touted, is certainly unproven, so you're basically asking if Moore would trade Greinke for Ryan Howard. I know many KC fans think negatively about Moore but there is no way even he would make that move. (Eric Seidman)
2008-08-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Joe, no Carlos Carrasco on your fast-rising prospects? He might be the best one of them all. He's better at AAA than AA, a great sign.
(Will from Conshohocken (PA))
I'm assuming this is a reference to the recent Sports Illustrated piece...Will, that addressed prospects on teams out of the race this season, so Carrasco didn't qualify. I do like him--caught his inning at the Futures Game and was impressed. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-01-31 13:00:00 (link to chat)Everyone seems down on Carlos Carrasco. The fact that he was only 20 last year and reached AA has to count for something, doesn't it? Will his flaws be ironed out with more innings, or do you see his upside as being limited?
(JM from MD)
It does count for something, but so does his stuff and production. He just doesn't miss a ton of bats, nor have to stuff to project as a big time star. Very good prospect, don't get me wrong -- But I think he's a No. 3, borderline No. 2 in a perfect world. (Kevin Goldstein)


BP Roundtables

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Carlos Carrasco has thrown 13,790 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2007 and 2017, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and Spring Training. In 2017, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (95mph) and Slider (86mph), also mixing in a Change (89mph), Sinker (94mph) and Curve (83mph). He also rarely throws a Splitter (89mph).