Carlos Carrasco

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Projected Playing Time
Indians Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Spot Carlos Carrasco 29 5 6.28 1.56 32 14 7 23 1 2 0 -3.4

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:31 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	10	7	0	24	24	145.0	130	60	132	16	44%	.282	28	1.31	3.94	-1	4.09	8.0	3.3	7.1	1.0	26.3	3.7	3.9
75^o	9	7	0	23	23	135.3	128	59	120	17	44%	.289	25	1.38	4.33	-1	4.49	8.4	3.4	6.9	1.1	18.4	2.9	3.0
60^o	7	7	0	21	21	120.0	122	57	103	17	44%	.301	20	1.49	4.98	0	5.14	9.1	3.7	6.6	1.2	7.3	1.7	1.8
50^o	6	7	0	21	21	114.7	120	56	97	17	44%	.305	18	1.53	5.22	0	5.38	9.3	3.8	6.5	1.3	3.8	1.3	1.4
40^o	6	7	0	20	20	110.7	118	55	92	17	44%	.307	17	1.56	5.39	0	5.56	9.5	3.9	6.4	1.3	1.4	1.0	1.1
25^o	5	7	0	19	19	100.7	113	52	82	17	44%	.314	14	1.64	5.85	0	6.01	10.0	4.1	6.3	1.4	-4.0	0.4	0.5
10^o	4	6	0	21	15	81.3	100	46	62	15	44%	.328	3	1.80	6.80	0	6.96	10.9	4.5	5.9	1.7	-12.1	-0.6	-0.6
Weighted Mean	7	7	0	22	22	126.0	129	60	108	18	44%	.301	20	1.49	4.99	0	5.15	9.1	3.7	6.6	1.2	6.8	1.7	1.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
12%	42%	15%	21%	0.98

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 22)	7	7	0	22	22	126.0	129	60	108	18	44%	.301	20	1.49	4.99	0	5.15	9.1	3.7	6.6	1.2	6.8	1.7	1.5
2010 (age 23)	7	7	0	28	19	117.0	121	54	99	16	44%	.303	14	1.49	4.90	0	5.05	9.2	3.7	6.6	1.2	7.2	1.6	1.5
2011 (age 24)	7	7	0	31	19	122.7	124	56	102	17	42%	.297	14	1.47	4.66	0	4.79	9.0	3.6	6.5	1.2	10.3	2.0	1.8
2012 (age 25)	7	6	1	31	16	110.7	113	43	93	15	44%	.302	14	1.41	4.64	0	4.80	9.1	3.1	6.5	1.2	9.7	1.7	1.7
2013 (age 26)	6	6	1	32	15	107.3	110	40	92	14	45%	.305	15	1.40	4.62	0	4.78	9.2	2.9	6.6	1.1	9.6	1.6	1.7
2014 (age 27)	6	5	1	35	12	98.3	101	35	85	13	44%	.305	14	1.38	4.43	0	4.57	9.1	2.8	6.7	1.1	10.8	1.6	1.7
2015 (age 28)	4	4	1	25	8	68.0	68	23	57	9	44%	.295	13	1.34	4.33	0	4.47	8.9	2.7	6.5	1.1	10.7	1.2	1.7

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.253	.361	.432
vs RHB	.256	.339	.414
Split	-.003	+.023	+.018
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	1.5	$2,000,000	5.4	6.3
2010	1.5	$2,225,000	5.9	7.2
2011	1.8	$3,200,000	9.1	11.3
2012	1.7	$3,275,000	8.6	10.2
2013	1.7	$3,450,000	8.5	10.5
2014	1.7	$4,125,000	9.9	10.5
2015	1.7	$4,350,000	9.9	9.5
Peak	10.0	$13,275,000	45.9	61.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	4.49	5.38	6.01	5.15
2010	4.41	5.28	5.89	5.05
2011	4.02	4.96	6.21	4.79
2012	4.21	5.35	6.72	4.80
2013	4.05	5.33	6.44	4.78
2014	3.79	4.89	5.74	4.57
2015	4.11	4.61	5.61	4.47

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	21%	0%	12%
2010	22%	7%	17%
2011	28%	10%	28%
2012	33%	12%	25%
2013	37%	19%	27%
2014	49%	30%	22%
2015	49%	33%	19%

59

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Jose Lima	1995	60		11	Todd Stottlemyre	1987	49
2	Amaury Telemaco	1996	60		12	Livan Hernandez	1997	47
3	Luis Vasquez	1989	58		13	Jason Bell	1997	46
4	Anibal Sanchez	2006	58		14	Rich Yett	1985	44
5	Edgar Ramos	1997	57		15	Juan Pena	1999	44
6	John Stephens	2002	56		16	Andy Rincon	1981	44
7	Julio Valera	1991	52		17	Frankie Rodriguez	1995	43
8	Tyler Clippard	2007	52		18	John Habyan	1986	43
9	Pat Hentgen	1991	50		19	Johnny Cueto	2008	42
10	Steve Karsay	1994	50		20	Curt Lyons	1997	42

Player Comments

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2008

Carrasco is generally considered the top arm in the Phillies' system, but despite reaching Double-A as a 20-year-old, he's not an elite-level prospect. Rather, he's something less than the sum of his parts. He boasts two above-average pitches (fastball, curve), one outstanding one (changeup), and good command, but his strikeout rates don't foretell of a future beyond that of a solid, mid-rotation innings-eater.

2007

There is a tendency for us here at BP to emphasize the physical and tangible over the mental. Carrasco started 2005 in the Sally League and got his head handed to him in his first couple of starts. The result was that he stopped believing in his stuff, tried to throw everything harder and harder, and reaped increasingly poor results. Last year he got off to a good start, pitched within his ability, and succeeded. The only tangible difference in 2006 was the addition of an improved curve to his low-90s fastball and excellent changeup. Scouts love his frame, and expect the skinny Venezuelan to fill out and get stronger.

Pos	Name	IP	GS	ERA	WHIP	H	BB	HR	SO	W	L	SV	VORP
Spot	Carlos Carrasco	29	5	6.28	1.56	32	14	7	23	1	2	0	-3.4

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	LWD	A	12	6	0	26	26	159.1	103	65	159	6	50%	.254	-22	1.06	2.26	15	6.75	9.4	5.4	4.3	1.3	-17.5	0.0	-0.2
2007	CLR	A+	6	2	0	12	12	69.7	49	22	53	8	47%	.222	-24	1.02	2.84	13	6.57	8.8	3.9	3.9	2.5	-6.6	0.0	0.1
2007	REA	AA	6	4	0	14	13	70.3	65	46	49	9	38%	.273	-27	1.58	4.86	7	8.03	10.4	6.5	3.7	2.1	-17.6	0.0	-1.2
2008	REA	AA	7	7	0	20	19	114.7	109	45	109	13	47%	.313	16	1.34	4.32	0	5.15	10.0	3.5	6.4	1.5	5.3	0.0	2.0
2008	LEH	AAA	2	2	0	6	6	36.7	37	13	46	1	49%	.356	37	1.36	1.72	-5	3.44	9.3	3.4	7.4	0.5	8.8	0.0	1.3

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats