Adrian Cardenas

<< PECOTA Home

Player Search

');// -->

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 7:46 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	686	92	39	4	16	71	51	118	21	7	0.8	.278	.333	.431	-.021	.274	.330	.422	.260	21.8	160-2B -3	5.1
75^o	652	78	35	3	13	62	46	115	20	7	0.7	.265	.318	.398	-.100	.261	.316	.390	.245	8.9	152-2B -1	4.1
60^o	626	68	32	3	10	56	42	111	19	7	0.7	.255	.307	.374	-.159	.251	.305	.366	.234	0.0	146-2B 0	3.3
50^o	612	64	31	2	9	54	41	110	18	7	0.6	.250	.302	.362	-.188	.246	.300	.355	.228	-4.1	143-2B 1	3.0
40^o	593	58	29	2	8	49	38	107	17	7	0.6	.244	.294	.346	-.228	.240	.292	.339	.220	-9.4	139-2B 1	2.5
25^o	561	49	25	2	5	43	35	103	16	7	0.6	.233	.283	.321	-.290	.229	.281	.314	.206	-17.0	132-2B 3	1.9
10^o	519	39	22	1	3	35	30	97	14	7	0.5	.220	.268	.290	-.365	.217	.267	.284	.188	-24.7	122-2B 4	1.1
Weighted Mean	639	68	32	3	10	56	42	114	19	8	0.6	.251	.302	.363	-.186	.247	.300	.356	.227	-0.4	149-2B 0	3.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
27%	52%	26%	5%	1.02

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 20)	639	68	32	3	10	56	42	114	19	8	0.6	.251	.302	.363	-.186	.247	.300	.356	.227	-0.4	149-2B 0	3.1
2009 (age 21)	624	70	33	3	12	58	44	106	18	7	0.6	.256	.310	.386	-.137	.248	.303	.371	.237	2.9	146-2B -2	3.1
2010 (age 22)	588	66	31	2	12	56	42	99	16	6	0.5	.259	.314	.392	-.120	.251	.307	.377	.240	4.7	138-2B -3	3.0
2011 (age 23)	569	65	31	2	12	54	43	96	14	6	0.4	.265	.322	.401	-.090	.256	.315	.386	.246	7.8	134-2B -2	3.1
2012 (age 24)	539	61	29	2	12	54	40	86	13	5	0.4	.269	.326	.410	-.067	.261	.318	.394	.250	8.7	127-2B -2	2.8
2013 (age 25)	593	71	31	3	14	61	44	90	15	6	0.3	.269	.324	.415	-.063	.261	.317	.399	.250	9.0	139-2B -3	2.6
2014 (age 26)	539	64	28	3	13	55	43	83	16	5	0.2	.272	.331	.421	-.043	.263	.323	.404	.256	9.6	127-2B -1	2.7

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.223	.272	.308
vs RHP	.260	.316	.400
Split	-.037	-.044	-.092
LgAvg	-.035	-.040	-.079

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.0	3.1	3.1	$3,950,000	-2.6	3.1
2009	0.5	2.6	3.1	$4,300,000	-1.0	5.0
2010	0.7	2.3	3.0	$4,350,000	-0.2	4.3
2011	0.9	2.2	3.1	$5,775,000	4.2	8.5
2012	0.9	1.9	2.8	$5,750,000	5.4	10.0
2013	0.9	1.7	2.6	$5,475,000	4.3	6.6
2014	1.0	1.7	2.7	$6,625,000	6.2	9.6
Peak			17.6	$22,475,000	31.0	47.0

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.245	.228	.206	.227
2009	.259	.242	.221	.237
2010	.259	.243	.223	.240
2011	.262	.245	.231	.246
2012	.273	.241	.230	.250
2013	.271	.254	.234	.250
2014	.284	.252	.231	.256

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	5%	0%	27%
2009	11%	2%	40%
2010	11%	2%	48%
2011	15%	9%	51%
2012	32%	19%	51%
2013	35%	25%	58%
2014	47%	32%	55%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Cardenas was the 37th pick in last year`s draft, a supplemental first-rounder from a Miami high school. His makeup couldn`t be more different from his fellow first-rounders; Cardenas graduated near the top of his class and entertained guests at his draft party by playing Liszt and Gershwin on the piano. He also led his high school team to the state championship by hitting .647 and slugging 1.319, earning Baseball America`s High School Player of the Year award, and finished up by raking in the GCL. He`s an outstanding hitting prospect who will probably move to second in the future.

Historical Stats