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Francisley Bueno
Atlanta Braves [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 27
5' 11"
200 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 MIS 2A 1 7 0 17 14 80.2 77 19 84 10 37% .318 1 1.20 3.59 6.69 6.03 10.5 2.7 6.4 2.0 -3.6 0.7
2007 MIS 2A 4 6 0 22 19 112.7 132 26 77 8 45% .339 -6 1.40 3.67 5.84 5.60 11.3 2.5 3.8 1.1 0.0 1.3
2007 RIC 3A 1 0 0 3 3 19.3 19 3 19 3 34% .291 12 1.14 2.80 5.29 3.79 9.5 1.9 6.2 1.9 3.8 0.5


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 7:11 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 7 5 0 19 19 111.7 121 30 65 14 42% .294 7 1.35 4.01 4.61 4.22 9.5 2.1 4.7 1.1 19.1 2.8 3.0
75o 6 6 0 26 17 107.0 121 30 62 14 42% .301 0 1.41 4.48 4.98 4.72 9.9 2.2 4.7 1.2 12.2 1.9 2.4
60o 6 7 0 27 16 100.7 120 29 57 15 42% .309 -4 1.48 5.13 5.50 5.40 10.4 2.4 4.6 1.3 3.6 1.0 1.5
50o 5 7 0 27 15 97.7 119 29 55 15 42% .313 -6 1.52 5.44 5.74 5.72 10.7 2.4 4.5 1.4 -0.2 0.6 1.1
40o 5 7 0 27 15 93.7 118 29 52 16 42% .319 -9 1.57 5.88 6.09 6.18 11.1 2.5 4.5 1.5 -5.1 0.1 0.5
25o 4 7 0 27 13 84.7 115 28 46 16 42% .331 -15 1.69 6.91 6.92 7.24 11.9 2.7 4.3 1.7 -15.0 -0.9 -0.5
10o 2 6 0 26 10 67.3 105 26 34 17 42% .356 -27 1.93 9.05 8.63 9.44 13.6 3.1 4.1 2.1 -29.0 -2.4 -2.1
Weighted Mean 5 7 0 29 15 96.7 118 29 54 15 42% .313 -7 1.51 5.42 5.70 5.70 10.7 2.4 4.6 1.3 0.1 0.6 0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

15%

46%

32%

19%

1.28

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 27) 5 7 0 29 15 96.7 118 29 54 15 42% .313 -7 1.51 5.42 5.70 5.70 10.7 2.4 4.6 1.3 0.1 0.6 0.9
2009 (age 28) 4 6 0 30 12 84.7 102 27 49 14 42% .312 -9 1.53 5.43 5.78 5.71 10.6 2.6 4.7 1.4 0.0 0.4 0.6
2010 (age 29) 4 5 0 33 11 85.7 105 24 41 14 37% .305 -14 1.51 5.28 5.73 5.51 10.7 2.3 3.9 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.6
2011 (age 30) 4 5 0 30 9 74.7 93 24 41 10 42% .320 -11 1.55 5.40 5.79 5.68 10.9 2.5 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.4 0.4
2012 (age 31) 3 4 1 27 8 65.3 79 19 38 9 42% .314 -8 1.49 5.15 5.50 5.43 10.5 2.4 4.8 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3
2013 (age 32)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 33)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .277 .340 .429
vs RHB .279 .345 .465
Split -.003 -.005 -.036
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.9 $925,000 -1.7 4.8
2009 0.6 $700,000 -1.2 3.9
2010 0.6 $775,000 0.2 2.1
2011 0.4 $575,000 -0.7 2.0
2012 0.3 $625,000 0.3 0.9
2013 0.3 $650,000 0.5 1.3
2014 0.3 $800,000 1.1 0.8
Peak 3.0 $1,650,000 2.1 15.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.72 5.72 7.24 5.70
2009 4.99 6.04 7.52 5.71
2010 4.52 5.38 7.30 5.51
2011 4.67 6.01 7.89 5.68
2012 4.57 5.63 7.10 5.43
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 19% 0% 15%
2009 49% 27% 14%
2010 60% 39% 13%
2011 67% 49% 11%
2012 78% 63% 6%
2013 85% 67% 5%
2014 89% 74% 6%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

56

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Horacio Estrada 2003 57 11 Travis Baptist 1999 40
2 Lance Painter 1994 54 12 Eddie Priest 2001 40
3 Willie Collazo 2007 52 13 Norm Montoya 1998 40
4 Jeffrey Williams 1999 46 14 Ryan O'Malley 2007 38
5 Wilton Chavez 2005 44 15 Doug Simons 1994 37
6 James Hurst 1994 42 16 Rigo Beltran 1997 37
7 Lance Davis 2003 41 17 Wandy Rodriguez 2006 36
8 Armando Reynoso 1993 41 18 Mike Sirotka 1998 35
9 Felipe Lira 1999 41 19 Denis Boucher 1995 34
10 Huck Flener 1996 40 20 Jim Campbell 1993 34

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