Dusty Brown

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Projected Playing Time
Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Order Name PT% PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP

C 8 Dusty Brown 5 11 .231 1 0 1 0 .308 .339 -0.1

1 2009 Total 5 11 .231 1 0 1 0 .308 .339 -0.1

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	PME	AA	331	32	17	0	5	40	24	65	2	1	-1.5	.224	.284	.332	-.437	.189	.242	.281	.181	-31.0	79-C 3	-1.0
2007	PME	AA	285	43	16	2	9	43	28	64	0	0	0.0	.268	.344	.453	-.305	.203	.267	.341	.210	-15.3	70-C 1	0.0
2007	PAW	AAA	29	1	2	0	0	3	2	10	0	0	0.0	.185	.241	.259	-.598	.148	.207	.222	.125	-4.1	8-C -3	-0.6
2008	PAW	AAA	350	39	14	2	12	55	40	81	0	0	1.0	.290	.377	.471	-.061	.248	.334	.414	.263	5.6	70-C -1	1.6

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 12:58 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	329	35	20	1	9	39	30	81	1	0	-0.4	.252	.328	.422	-.068	.245	.323	.426	.261	7.6	80-C -2	2.0
75^o	326	29	17	1	7	35	28	85	1	0	-0.4	.226	.299	.369	-.204	.220	.294	.373	.234	-2.8	79-C -2	1.0
60^o	323	25	16	1	6	32	27	88	1	0	-0.3	.210	.281	.337	-.289	.204	.276	.340	.216	-9.1	78-C -2	0.4
50^o	323	24	15	1	6	32	26	89	1	0	-0.3	.205	.276	.328	-.312	.200	.271	.331	.210	-10.8	78-C -2	0.3
40^o	322	23	15	1	6	31	26	90	1	0	-0.3	.200	.269	.316	-.343	.194	.265	.319	.203	-13.1	78-C -2	0.0
25^o	320	21	14	1	5	29	25	92	1	0	-0.3	.188	.256	.293	-.402	.183	.252	.296	.188	-17.4	78-C -1	-0.4
10^o	317	17	12	1	4	25	23	97	1	0	-0.3	.169	.233	.254	-.503	.164	.230	.257	.158	-24.6	77-C -1	-1.1
Weighted Mean	336	26	16	1	6	33	27	93	1	0	-0.3	.205	.275	.326	-.280	.199	.270	.329	.209	-11.5	81-C -1	0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
14%	28%	51%	30%	1.22

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 27)	336	26	16	1	6	33	27	93	1	0	-0.3	.205	.275	.326	-.280	.199	.270	.329	.209	-11.5	81-C -1	0.3
2010 (age 28)	312	24	15	1	6	33	25	85	1	0	-0.2	.214	.281	.343	-.264	.211	.280	.350	.217	-6.2	76-C -2	0.4
2011 (age 29)	262	19	13	1	5	26	21	70	1	0	-0.1	.208	.280	.336	-.279	.205	.279	.343	.215	-4.6	65-C -1	0.3
2012 (age 30)	257	20	13	1	6	27	22	66	1	0	-0.1	.217	.291	.351	-.234	.213	.290	.359	.225	-2.7	63-C 0	0.4
2013 (age 31)	245	16	11	0	4	24	19	66	1	0	-0.1	.201	.271	.315	-.326	.198	.270	.322	.203	-4.9	61-C 0	0.2
2014 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 33)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.222	.295	.358
vs RHP	.200	.267	.312
Split	+.022	+.028	+.046
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-9.9	-1.0	0.3	$400,000	-9.8	1.0
2010	-6.7	-2.0	0.4	$425,000	-4.9	1.1
2011	-6.3	-1.0	0.3	$500,000	-3.3	1.5
2012	-3.6	0.0	0.4	$800,000	-1.7	0.5
2013	-8.4	0.0	0.2	$450,000	-3.4	0.7
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			1.7	$1,375,000	0.0	5.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.234	.210	.188	.209
2010	.239	.219	.185	.217
2011	.242	.214	.175	.215
2012	.242	.211	.175	.225
2013	.237	.210	.166	.203
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	30%	0%	14%
2010	45%	24%	18%
2011	67%	44%	13%
2012	70%	50%	10%
2013	77%	54%	9%
2014	88%	71%	12%
2015	90%	72%	8%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

65

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Kevin Cash	2004	69		11	Bill Bathe	1987	51
2	Tom Prince	1991	60		12	Gilberto Reyes	1990	51
3	Terry McGriff	1990	60		13	Douglas Simunic	1983	51
4	Rey Palacios	1989	59		14	Mark Owens	1990	49
5	Dave Sax	1985	57		15	Bill Lindsey	1987	49
6	Jack Fimple	1986	55		16	Keith Osik	1995	48
7	Bob Natal	1992	54		17	Lou Lucca	1997	48
8	B.J. Waszgis	1997	53		18	Tim Spehr	1993	48
9	Rob Fitzpatrick	1995	52		19	Don McCormack	1982	47
10	Grant Fithian	1998	52		20	Josh Bonifay	2005	46

Player Comments

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Dusty Brown is an organizational backup catcher who can draw a few walks.

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