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Dusty Brown
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 26
6'
180 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 WIL 1C 253 32 12 0 8 36 31 52 1 1 -1.1 .256 .348 .420 .049 .207 .281 .322 .211 -10.5 24-C -2 0.4
2006 PME 2A 331 32 17 0 5 40 24 65 2 1 -1.3 .224 .284 .332 -.138 .211 .267 .321 .208 -15.9 79-C 7 2.1
2007 PME 2A 285 43 16 2 9 43 28 64 0 0 -0.1 .268 .344 .453 .086 .236 .305 .411 .246 3.2 70-C 5 2.5
2007 PAW 3A 29 1 2 0 0 3 2 10 0 0 0.0 .185 .241 .259 -.384 .185 .241 .259 .165 -3.0 0.0


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 7:21 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 308 33 17 1 8 39 26 79 2 1 -0.4 .243 .310 .401 -.099 .236 .307 .410 .252 3.2 75-C 1 2.4
75o 287 27 15 1 7 34 23 76 2 1 -0.4 .231 .296 .372 -.169 .224 .292 .380 .238 -1.7 70-C 1 1.8
60o 273 24 14 1 6 31 21 73 2 1 -0.3 .223 .286 .354 -.214 .217 .283 .362 .228 -4.6 67-C 1 1.5
50o 262 21 13 1 5 28 19 71 1 1 -0.3 .217 .279 .339 -.250 .211 .276 .347 .220 -6.6 64-C 1 1.2
40o 246 18 12 1 4 25 17 67 1 1 -0.3 .209 .269 .320 -.297 .203 .266 .327 .208 -9.0 61-C 1 0.9
25o 225 14 10 1 3 21 15 63 1 1 -0.3 .199 .256 .296 -.356 .193 .254 .303 .194 -11.3 56-C 1 0.6
10o 192 9 8 0 2 15 12 56 1 1 -0.2 .185 .239 .263 -.436 .180 .237 .269 .171 -13.3 49-C 0 0.2
Weighted Mean 254 20 13 1 5 28 19 69 1 1 -0.3 .217 .279 .341 -.247 .212 .277 .348 .220 -6.4 63-C 1 1.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

22%

43%

34%

24%

0.89

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 26) 254 20 13 1 5 28 19 69 1 1 -0.3 .217 .279 .341 -.247 .212 .277 .348 .220 -6.4 63-C 1 1.6
2009 (age 27) 221 18 12 1 4 24 17 59 1 1 -0.2 .227 .290 .360 -.198 .224 .291 .375 .231 -1.8 55-C -1 0.9
2010 (age 28) 256 23 14 1 6 31 17 65 2 1 -0.1 .240 .295 .381 -.153 .237 .297 .396 .239 -0.2 63-C 1 0.8
2011 (age 29) 215 17 12 1 4 23 15 55 1 1 -0.1 .230 .287 .365 -.195 .227 .288 .379 .231 -1.0 54-C -1 0.5
2012 (age 30)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 31)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 32)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .235 .302 .371
vs RHP .213 .271 .326
Split +.022 +.030 +.045
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.2 1.8 1.6 $1,800,000 -3.9 0.8
2009 0.0 0.8 0.9 $975,000 -1.2 1.1
2010 0.1 0.7 0.8 $1,175,000 1.1 2.5
2011 0.0 0.5 0.5 $725,000 -0.6 1.4
2012 0.1 0.5 0.5 $825,000 0.3 1.6
2013 0.0 0.3 0.3 $575,000 -0.8 0.7
2014 0.0 0.3 0.3 $625,000 0.0 0.5
Peak 4.7 $3,275,000 0.3 8.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .238 .220 .194 .220
2009 .242 .227 .198 .231
2010 .253 .228 .206 .239
2011 .259 .219 .192 .231
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 24% 0% 22%
2009 62% 35% 21%
2010 66% 56% 27%
2011 75% 62% 22%
2012 80% 70% 18%
2013 86% 78% 14%
2014 96% 85% 14%

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