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Reid Brignac
Tampa Bay Rays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Shortstop
Bats L
Age 22
6' 3"
180 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Rays Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
SS 9 Reid Brignac 5 31 .235 3 0 3 0 .292 .386 0.3
1   2008 Total 5 31 .235 3 0 3 0 .292 .386 0.3

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 SWM 1B 565 77 29 2 15 61 40 131 5 5 -1.1 .264 .319 .416 .006 .219 .262 .340 .206 -19.2 124-SS -20 0.0
2006 VIS 1C 455 82 26 3 21 83 35 82 12 6 1.8 .326 .382 .557 .327 .261 .309 .451 .258 18.5 97-SS -8 2.6
2006 MNT 2A 121 18 6 2 3 16 7 31 3 0 -1.2 .300 .355 .473 .228 .250 .298 .446 .256 4.0 28-SS -5 0.8
2007 MNT 2A 596 91 30 5 17 81 55 94 15 5 2.0 .260 .328 .433 .057 .234 .294 .396 .242 4.5 126-SS 8 4.4


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 7:16 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 624 83 36 4 21 81 54 121 13 4 1.2 .268 .333 .457 .031 .271 .338 .480 .284 36.3 146-SS -4 6.0
75o 593 69 32 3 18 71 47 120 11 4 1.1 .251 .313 .422 -.061 .255 .318 .443 .266 20.9 139-SS -3 4.7
60o 572 61 30 3 16 64 42 120 10 4 1.0 .241 .299 .399 -.122 .244 .304 .419 .254 11.6 134-SS -2 3.9
50o 560 57 29 2 14 61 40 119 10 4 0.9 .235 .292 .386 -.154 .238 .297 .406 .247 6.8 131-SS -2 3.5
40o 549 53 28 2 13 58 38 118 10 4 0.9 .230 .285 .375 -.185 .233 .290 .394 .241 2.5 129-SS -1 3.1
25o 520 44 25 2 11 50 33 116 9 4 0.8 .217 .269 .347 -.257 .220 .273 .365 .225 -7.0 123-SS 0 2.3
10o 483 35 22 1 8 41 27 113 8 3 0.7 .202 .249 .314 -.344 .204 .253 .330 .204 -17.0 114-SS 1 1.3
Weighted Mean 599 62 31 3 15 65 43 127 11 4 0.9 .235 .292 .386 -.156 .238 .296 .405 .247 5.0 140-SS -2 4.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

33%

63%

20%

11%

1.08

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 22) 599 62 31 3 15 65 43 127 11 4 0.9 .235 .292 .386 -.156 .238 .296 .405 .247 5.0 140-SS -2 4.1
2009 (age 23) 595 63 31 3 14 62 45 117 10 4 0.9 .238 .298 .387 -.140 .245 .308 .415 .250 8.5 139-SS -1 4.0
2010 (age 24) 550 57 28 3 15 60 39 107 9 4 0.8 .241 .297 .397 -.127 .248 .307 .425 .252 8.9 129-SS 0 3.7
2011 (age 25) 554 63 29 3 18 68 43 109 9 3 0.7 .250 .312 .425 -.059 .257 .322 .455 .266 14.7 130-SS -2 3.7
2012 (age 26) 529 60 28 3 17 61 42 104 9 4 0.6 .251 .313 .427 -.053 .258 .324 .458 .267 15.7 125-SS -1 3.9
2013 (age 27) 604 69 32 3 19 67 47 115 11 4 0.5 .243 .305 .415 -.088 .251 .315 .444 .261 10.9 141-SS -1 3.3
2014 (age 28) 551 58 30 2 14 62 41 103 9 3 0.4 .243 .302 .397 -.117 .250 .312 .426 .254 6.6 129-SS -2 2.7

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .215 .270 .344
vs RHP .241 .301 .416
Split -.026 -.031 -.072
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.0 3.0 4.1 $6,900,000 7.4 9.6
2009 1.2 2.8 4.0 $7,950,000 11.6 12.4
2010 1.1 2.5 3.7 $8,000,000 12.4 16.7
2011 1.6 2.1 3.7 $9,300,000 16.3 21.4
2012 1.7 2.2 3.9 $10,950,000 18.1 23.8
2013 1.3 2.0 3.3 $9,025,000 13.2 15.6
2014 0.8 1.9 2.7 $7,075,000 7.9 11.0
Peak 22.5 $40,625,000 79.5 100.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .266 .247 .225 .247
2009 .263 .243 .227 .250
2010 .267 .245 .225 .252
2011 .280 .258 .235 .266
2012 .277 .264 .240 .267
2013 .272 .255 .240 .261
2014 .268 .252 .229 .254


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 11% 0% 33%
2009 8% 3% 37%
2010 22% 5% 41%
2011 39% 13% 54%
2012 34% 16% 56%
2013 51% 27% 50%
2014 57% 35% 48%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

At the end of the 2005 season, Brignac was a six-foot-one, 185-pound shortstop. At the beginning of the 2006 season, he was six-foot-three and 200 pounds--and it all came from cleaning living and organic, BGH-free whole milk. We often talk about young prospects `growing into their bodies,` and Brignac`s a pretty good illustration of how much growth there is left in some of these kids. There`s a possibility that he`s grown himself right out of the shortstop position; even as a smaller guy, his range wasn`t terribly great, and it doesn`t figure to improve now that he has to haul more of himself around out there. But no matter, his bat looks good at any position. The good news about his added bulk is that it came with extra power, which helped him earn a late-season promotion to Double-A. The main flaw in his batting game is patience, but he`s one of those players for whom patience should develop later as pitchers start to respect his bat and throw him stuff he can`t drive. This is a small matter given just how good the overall picture is.

2006

The Old Regime`s 2nd-round draft pick in 2004, Brignac had a strong debut for a prep prospect, then put up a strong first full season in a tough hitting environment. If he can stay at short, he`ll have above-average power for the position, and though his swing and pitch selection need improvement, he`s starting from a good place given his age and inexperience.

2005

A high-schooler from Louisiana, Brignac led his team to the state championship and was supposedly a lock to go to LSU, but the Rays managed to pry him away ($795,000 was nicely persuasive). He didn't have any trouble at the plate in his first taste of pro ball, homering in his first game, hitting .378, displaying excellent (and un-Raylike) plate discipline and exceptional bat speed. There's a question about whether he'll be able to stay at short in the long term, but it doesn't cost the team anything to try to keep him there. He's expected to have little trouble if he does move to another position.


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