Biographical

Portrait of Bill Bray

Bill Bray PNationals

Nationals Player Cards | Nationals Team Audit | Nationals Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 31)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
37.0 3.61 1.28 36 3 1 4 0.4
Birth Date6-5-1983
Height6' 3"
Weight215 lbs
Age31 years, 4 months, 18 days
BatsL
ThrowsL
0.22010
0.32011
-0.52012
2013
0.42014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2006 CIN 23 29 0 27.7 0.0 27.7 2 1 2 1 0 0 123 33 16 13 3 49 9 8 0 23 4.23 3.83 4.49 3.4 0.3
2006 WAS 23 19 0 23.0 0.0 23.0 1 1 0 0 0 0 100 24 11 10 2 36 9 7 1 16 3.91 4.15 3.88 3.2 0.3
2007 CIN 24 19 0 14.3 0.0 14.3 3 3 1 1 0 0 63 16 10 10 1 26 5 4 0 14 6.28 3.18 4.15 2.6 0.3
2008 CIN 25 63 0 47.0 0.0 47.0 2 2 0 7 0 0 215 50 19 15 4 79 24 19 1 54 2.87 3.51 2.82 10.0 1.0
2010 CIN 27 35 0 28.3 0.0 28.3 0 2 0 0 0 0 117 21 13 13 4 38 10 9 0 30 4.13 3.88 4.20 1.7 0.2
2011 CIN 28 79 0 48.3 0.0 48.3 5 3 0 6 0 0 196 35 16 16 3 57 17 14 2 44 2.98 3.16 3.92 3.0 0.3
2012 CIN 29 14 0 8.7 0.0 8.7 0 0 0 3 0 0 43 6 5 5 2 14 14 14 0 7 5.19 9.37 10.86 -4.7 -0.5
Career2580197.30.0197.3131231800857185908219299887541883.743.834.0219.11.9

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2004 BRV A+ 6 0 7.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .346 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2004 jav Wnt 9 0 16.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 POT A+ 8 0 12.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 -.318 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 HAR AA 3 0 5.7 4.22 105 .283 .268 .328 .412 .271 .500 67 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.1
2005 NWO AAA 23 0 21.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 -.513 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2006 CIN MLB 29 0 27.7 4.49 105 .272 .268 .331 .441 .267 .341 97 3.4 0.3 3.4 0.3
2006 WAS MLB 19 0 23.0 3.88 114 .269 .269 .338 .437 .264 .306 92 3.4 0.3 3.2 0.3
2006 NWO AAA 21 0 31.2 4.42 104 .249 .258 .328 .397 .256 .300 96 4.1 0.4 3.5 0.3
2007 CIN MLB 19 0 14.3 4.15 116 .262 .276 .339 .452 .271 .349 103 2.6 0.3 2.6 0.3
2007 SAR A+ 2 0 2.0 4.05 115 .050 .250 .311 .373 .248 .000 105 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0
2007 LOU AAA 18 0 19.0 1.87 156 .244 .261 .336 .395 .262 .350 97 8.2 0.8 8.2 0.8
2008 CIN MLB 63 0 47.0 2.82 139 .281 .269 .338 .426 .269 .348 99 10.0 1.0 10.0 1.0
2008 LOU AAA 9 0 9.0 4.50 88 .226 .276 .348 .433 .282 .294 90 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0
2009 LOU AAA 3 0 5.0 1.63 167 .112 .266 .337 .411 .250 .182 115 2.0 0.2 2.0 0.2
2010 CIN MLB 35 0 28.3 4.20 102 .234 .258 .324 .414 .270 .233 98 1.7 0.2 1.7 0.2
2010 LYN A+ 4 0 4.7 2.21 153 .145 .263 .350 .415 .268 .143 105 1.6 0.2 1.6 0.2
2010 LOU AAA 6 0 5.7 -0.49 212 .112 .266 .356 .440 .273 .167 92 3.6 0.3 3.6 0.3
2011 CIN MLB 79 0 48.3 3.92 108 .231 .259 .327 .417 .269 .246 102 3.0 0.3 3.0 0.3
2012 CIN MLB 14 0 8.7 10.86 -51 .358 .255 .324 .402 .262 .200 101 -4.7 -0.5 -4.7 -0.5
2012 DYT A 2 0 2.7 1.59 166 .063 .269 .342 .407 .275 .000 99 1.1 0.1 1.1 0.1
2012 LOU AAA 14 0 12.0 6.31 66 .330 .261 .336 .409 .271 .390 107 -1.6 -0.2 -1.6 -0.2
2013 HAR AA 4 0 4.3 1.72 160 .114 .244 .320 .362 .264 .250 95 1.4 0.1 1.4 0.1

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2004 jav Wnt 0 0 0 9 0 16.0 21 4 16 1 0% .000 11.8 2.2 0.6 9.0 1.56 7.31 0.0 0.0
2004 BRV A+ 0 2 1 6 0 7.3 9 1 6 0 0% .346 11.1 1.2 0.0 7.4 1.37 4.93 0.0 0.0
2005 NWO AAA 1 4 2 23 0 21.3 23 9 25 3 0% -.513 9.7 3.8 1.3 10.6 1.50 5.07 0.0 0.0
2005 POT A+ 1 0 3 8 0 12.7 8 3 18 1 0% -.318 5.7 2.1 0.7 12.8 0.87 2.13 0.0 0.0
2005 HAR AA 1 0 1 3 0 5.7 10 1 6 1 40% .500 15.8 1.6 1.6 9.5 1.93 6.32 0.8 0.1
2006 CIN MLB 2 1 2 29 0 27.7 33 9 23 3 41% .341 10.7 2.9 1.0 7.5 1.52 4.23 3.4 0.3
2006 NWO AAA 4 1 5 21 0 31.2 26 9 45 5 41% .300 7.5 2.6 1.4 13.0 1.12 4.04 3.5 0.3
2006 WAS MLB 1 1 0 19 0 23.0 24 9 16 2 50% .306 9.4 3.5 0.8 6.3 1.43 3.91 3.2 0.3
2007 LOU AAA 1 2 0 18 0 19.0 19 6 29 1 44% .350 9.0 2.8 0.5 13.7 1.32 4.26 8.2 0.8
2007 SAR A+ 0 0 0 2 0 2.0 0 1 2 0 33% .000 0.0 4.5 0.0 9.0 0.50 0.00 0.2 0.0
2007 CIN MLB 3 3 1 19 0 14.3 16 5 14 1 43% .349 10.0 3.1 0.6 8.8 1.47 6.28 2.6 0.3
2008 CIN MLB 2 2 0 63 0 47.0 50 24 54 4 39% .348 9.6 4.6 0.8 10.3 1.57 2.87 10.0 1.0
2008 LOU AAA 0 0 1 9 0 9.0 6 5 15 1 33% .294 6.0 5.0 1.0 15.0 1.22 3.00 0.4 0.0
2009 LOU AAA 0 0 0 3 0 5.0 2 1 6 0 55% .182 3.6 1.8 0.0 10.8 0.60 0.00 2.0 0.2
2010 LYN A+ 0 0 0 4 0 4.7 1 2 9 0 43% .143 1.9 3.8 0.0 17.2 0.64 0.00 1.6 0.2
2010 LOU AAA 0 0 1 6 0 5.7 2 1 7 0 25% .167 3.2 1.6 0.0 11.1 0.53 0.00 3.6 0.3
2010 CIN MLB 0 2 0 35 0 28.3 21 10 30 4 39% .233 6.7 3.2 1.3 9.5 1.09 4.13 1.7 0.2
2011 CIN MLB 5 3 0 79 0 48.3 35 17 44 3 34% .246 6.5 3.2 0.6 8.2 1.08 2.98 3.0 0.3
2012 CIN MLB 0 0 0 14 0 8.7 6 14 7 2 27% .200 6.2 14.5 2.1 7.3 2.31 5.19 -4.7 -0.5
2012 LOU AAA 1 0 0 14 0 12.0 17 12 10 1 43% .390 12.8 9.0 0.8 7.5 2.42 9.00 -1.6 -0.2
2012 DYT A 1 0 0 2 0 2.7 0 1 4 0 80% .000 0.0 3.4 0.0 13.5 0.38 0.00 1.1 0.1
2013 HAR AA 0 0 0 4 0 4.3 2 1 6 0 38% .250 4.2 2.1 0.0 12.5 0.69 0.00 1.4 0.1

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 767 0.4759 0.5046 0.7209 0.6548 0.3682 0.8410 0.5270 0.2791
2010 478 0.4833 0.4686 0.7054 0.6234 0.3239 0.8125 0.5125 0.2946
2011 799 0.4894 0.4668 0.7534 0.6752 0.2672 0.8106 0.6147 0.2466
2012 179 0.3911 0.3631 0.8000 0.5429 0.2477 0.9211 0.6296 0.1846
Career22230.47550.47190.73560.64640.31270.83040.56370.2631

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2012-07-31 2012-10-12 15-DL 73 60 - Low Back Strain - -
2012-04-19 2012-06-22 15-DL 64 56 Left Groin Strain - -
2012-03-06 2012-03-26 Camp 20 0 - Groin Strain - -
2010-04-08 2010-06-13 Minors 66 0 Left Elbow Recovery From Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2009-05-19
2009-04-16 2009-09-13 Minors 150 0 Left Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2009-05-19
2009-03-08 2009-03-15 Camp 7 0 Left Thigh Strain Hamstring -
2009-02-17 2009-03-07 Camp 18 0 Left Shoulder Soreness -
2008-02-18 2008-03-12 Camp 23 0 Left Shoulder Soreness -
2008-01-18 2008-01-18 Off 0 0 Abdomen Surgery Appendix 2008-01-18
2007-04-01 2007-07-20 60-DL 110 96 Left Fingers Fracture Index Finger -
2007-03-09 2007-04-01 Camp 23 0 Left Shoulder Soreness -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2013 WAS $
2012 CIN $1,417,500
2011 CIN $645,000
2007 CIN $382,500
YearsDescriptionSalary
3 yrPrevious$2,445,000
3 yrTotal$2,445,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
5 y 18 dBobby Witt1 year (2013)

Details
  • 1 year (2013). Signed by Washington as a free agent 12/3/12 (minor-league contract). Retired 3/14.
  • 1 year/$1.4175M (2012). Re-signed by Cincinnati 1/17/12 (avoided arbitration). Sent outright to Triple-A by Cincinnati 11/12 (refused assignment 11/7/12).
  • 1 year/$0.645M (2011). Re-signed by Cincinnati 1/18/11 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year (2010). Re-signed 3/10.
  • 1 year/$0.42M (2009). Re-signed 2/25/09.
  • 1 year (2008). Re-signed 3/6/08.
  • 1 year/$0.3825M (2007).
  • 1 year (2006). Contract purchased by Washington 6/06. Acquired in trade from Washington 7/06.
  • Drafted 2004 (1-13) (William & Mary). $1.75M signing bonus.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 4.4 2 6.6 78 0 56.7 38 19 55 4 .251 1.01 2.43 2.64 14.7 1.5
80o 3.7 1.7 5.6 68 0 49.7 36 19 49 4 .268 1.10 2.82 3.07 10.2 1.0
70o 3.3 1.5 5 62 0 44.9 34 18 44 4 .280 1.16 3.11 3.38 7.4 0.8
60o 3 1.3 4.4 56 0 40.8 33 17 40 4 .291 1.22 3.36 3.66 5.3 0.5
50o 2.7 1.1 3.9 51 0 37.1 31 16 36 3 .301 1.28 3.60 3.92 3.6 0.4
40o 2.4 1 3.5 46 0 33.5 30 15 33 3 .311 1.34 3.85 4.18 2.1 0.2
30o 2.1 0.8 3 41 0 29.7 28 14 29 3 .321 1.41 4.11 4.47 0.8 0.1
20o 1.7 0.7 2.5 35 0 25.5 25 13 25 3 .334 1.49 4.43 4.81 -0.4 -0.0
10o 1.3 0.5 1.9 27 0 19.8 21 11 19 2 .351 1.60 4.88 5.3 -1.5 -0.2
Weighted Mean2.61.13.850036.23016353.2981.273.563.873.70.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
19% 27% 36% 16% 77%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20153252786063512558540.2901.213.333.627.33.68.30.71.0
20163341570051462147540.3121.323.934.288.23.78.30.90.4
20173442673053452150540.2981.253.633.957.73.68.50.90.6
20183541568049431946540.3011.263.663.987.83.58.40.90.6
20193631457041371738440.3101.313.884.228.13.78.30.90.4
20203731459043391739440.3071.303.784.108.23.68.20.80.4
20213831456041371737440.3041.323.884.218.13.78.10.90.4
20223931455040371636440.3071.313.904.248.33.68.00.90.3
20234031456041381635440.3081.333.964.318.43.57.70.90.3

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
15.318.24.84.132.145.5

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 79)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 91 Bobby Seay 2009 4.62
2 90 Manny Acosta 2012 7.23
3 89 Derrick Turnbow 2009 0.00 DNP
4 88 George Sherrill 2008 4.72
5 87 Will Ohman 2009 5.84
6 87 Craig Breslow 2012 3.13
7 87 Pat Neshek 2012 1.37
8 86 Brian Tallet 2009 5.55
9 86 Santiago Casilla 2012 3.41
10 86 Brian Bruney 2013 0.00 DNP
11 86 Jesus Colome 2009 7.59
12 85 Scott Proctor 2008 6.98
13 85 Jose Veras 2012 3.90
14 83 Jason Frasor 2009 2.65
15 83 Manny Delcarmen 2013 0.00 DNP
16 82 Brian Fuentes 2007 3.82
17 82 Grant Balfour 2009 5.21
18 82 Mike Adams 2010 1.89
19 81 Jared Burton 2012 3.05
20 81 Geoff Geary 2008 2.53
21 81 Vinnie Chulk 2010 0.00 DNP
22 81 Jason Isringhausen 2004 3.23
23 81 Brendan Donnelly 2003 1.70
24 80 Frank Francisco 2011 3.73
25 80 Jeff Bennett 2011 0.00 DNP
26 80 Joaquin Benoit 2009 0.00 DNP
27 80 Matt Lindstrom 2011 3.50
28 80 Doug Slaten 2011 5.51
29 80 Juan Rincon 2010 4.50
30 80 Felix Rodriguez 2004 3.43
31 79 David Riske 2008 5.31
32 79 Scott Strickland 2007 0.00 DNP
33 79 Scott Linebrink 2008 3.88
34 79 Aaron Heilman 2010 4.50
35 79 Fernando Rodney 2008 4.91
36 79 Brandon Medders 2011 0.00 DNP
37 78 Guillermo Mota 2005 5.10
38 78 Scott Williamson 2007 5.02
39 78 Jose Valverde 2009 2.50
40 78 Tyler Yates 2009 9.00
41 78 Cory Bailey 2002 4.70
42 78 Francisco Rodriguez 2013 2.70
43 77 Matt Thornton 2008 2.67
44 77 Michael Gonzalez 2009 3.39
45 77 Nick Masset 2013 0.00 DNP
46 77 Jason Motte 2013 0.00 DNP
47 77 Kameron Loe 2013 7.09
48 77 Dan Wheeler 2009 3.75
49 77 Joel Hanrahan 2013 9.82
50 77 Michael Wuertz 2010 4.76
51 77 Steve Karsay 2003 0.00 DNP
52 77 Jon Rauch 2010 3.12
53 77 Tug McGraw 1976 3.24
54 77 J.J. Putz 2008 3.88
55 77 Jesse Orosco 1988 3.06
56 77 Matt Wise 2007 5.03
57 77 Jeff Montgomery 1993 2.27
58 77 Rafael Soriano 2011 4.12
59 76 Willie Eyre 2010 0.00 DNP
60 76 Chuck McElroy 1999 5.67
61 76 Mike Jackson 1996 4.00
62 76 Greg McMichael 1998 5.16
63 76 Scot Shields 2007 4.32
64 76 Eddie Watt 1972 2.36
65 76 Zach Miner 2013 4.40
66 76 Jeremy Accardo 2013 0.00 DNP
67 76 Javier Lopez 2009 10.03
68 76 Jim Mecir 2001 3.57
69 76 Rich Garces 2002 8.44
70 76 Jesse Crain 2013 1.47
71 76 Hoyt Wilhelm 1954 2.51
72 75 Heath Bell 2009 2.71
73 75 Chris Ray 2013 0.00 DNP
74 75 Ken Dayley 1990 3.80
75 75 Angel Guzman 2013 0.00 DNP
76 75 Jim Kern 1980 5.54
77 75 Mike Henneman 1993 3.52
78 75 Tippy Martinez 1981 3.36
79 75 Tim Burke 1990 3.48
80 75 Kevin Gregg 2009 4.98
81 75 Dave Righetti 1990 4.08
82 75 Todd Jones 1999 4.07
83 75 Mike Stanton 1998 5.81
84 75 Mel Rojas 1998 6.05
85 75 Jeremy Affeldt 2010 4.50
86 75 J.C. Romero 2007 1.92
87 75 Todd Coffey 2012 5.12
88 74 Chad Harville 2008 0.00 DNP
89 74 Julio Mateo 2009 0.00 DNP
90 74 John Wetteland 1998 2.47
91 74 Jason Christiansen 2001 3.22
92 74 Charlie Manning 2010 0.00 DNP
93 74 Matt Belisle 2011 4.12
94 74 Al Holland 1984 3.48
95 74 Pedro Feliciano 2008 4.05
96 74 Jim Miller 2013 20.25
97 74 Aurelio Lopez 1980 4.14
98 74 Don Elston 1960 4.01
99 73 Luis Ayala 2009 6.53
100 73 Juan Cruz 2010 3.38

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2013 Left-groin and low-back injuries ruined Bray's 2012, just as injuries have marred many seasons in his career. He made five appearances in April, then missed two months, then got into nine more games before calling it a season at the beginning of September. Even when he was healthy, he couldn't throw strikes. He returns to his original organization on a minor-league deal and will hope for more health and strikes this year.
2012 Bray might seem a bit young to already be punted into the Honeycutt super-situational set-up role, pitching more than 70 games while throwing fewer than 50 innings as he struggled a bit in the second half. He's not really a LOOGY, since he has a good three-pitch assortment (holding righties to a 659 OPS), and he's not really getting to just let it rip, as he was Baker's fireman within innings, coming in with runners on base as often as not. In Baker's heavily scripted bullpen-usage patterns, Bray may not get a shot at being the next Matt Thornton, and his extensive injury history might argue against it, but the talent's there for him to convert a few save opportunities.
2011 Injuries have limited Bray to only 117 1/3 innings in his four-and-a-half seasons with Cincinnati. In his mid-season comeback from Tommy John surgery, the lefty held the opposition scoreless in 10 1/3 minor-league innings before returning to the majors, where he showed that he could still rack up strikeouts despite having lost some of his previously impressive velocity. The perennially promising first-rounder won’t turn 28 until June, and while his spotty control will always hold him back, this could be the season that reveals the player for whom the Reds traded—as Emily Dickinson said, hope is the thing with feathers and/or a lefty reliever with a bad arm.
2010 Former Expos first-rounder Bill Bray will be battling back from May 2008 Tommy John surgery this season.
2009 Finally experiencing a somewhat injury-free season, Bray proved ill-suited for the lefty specialist role in the Reds' bullpen. Despite dominating portsiders in the minors, control issues make him a less-than-ideal LOOGY in The Show—in that role, a .360 OBP against fellow lefties is unacceptable. Arthur Rhodes' acquisition should free Baker to use Bray in a less matchup-oriented role, where he can cut loose and use his high-velocity mix to good effect.
2008 Unlike Gary Majewski, with whom he was packaged in the Austin Kearns trade, Bray wasn't injured when he came to the Reds from the Nationals, but the shoulder problems he suffered out of spring training last year only reinforced the feeling that the trade was a disaster. Bray's stuff looked strong when he returned to the ballclub in August, even if the results were a tad ugly. He still has the highest ceiling of any of the lefty relief prospects the Reds have on hand.
2007 Setting aside what it took to get him here, Bray`s about as worthwhile a young lefty reliever as you could imagine. Boasting a high-velocity fastball/slider combo that can fool most of the people most of the time, he combines with Todd Coffey to give the Reds a lefty-righty tandem that might soon conjure up comparisons to the Nasty Boys. There`s some speculation that he might wind up a starter at some point, but there are plenty of candidates for the fifth slot this spring. Barring a serious commitment to the experiment, his ability as a reliever might provide too strong a disincentive to mess with success.
2006 A college closer at William & Mary picked in the 1st round of the 2004 draft, Bray`s pro career has started slowly, between signing late and then missing the first two months of 2005 to a back injury. But when he does get on the mound, he justifies scouts` enthusiasm for him with a fastball that gets into the mid-90s and a sharp, high-velocity slider. With Mike Stanton and Eischen on hand to fulfill the pen`s left-handed needs, Bray might have to wait a few months, but he will be up before the season`s out.
2005 Having just said some bad things about the contributions of relief prospects, here's a good one. He's got control and good stuff, he'll be in the majors soon, and he should be a contributor. Picked in the first round in 2004 out of William & Mary, they'll let him build on the 7.1 A-ball innings for a while before he gets a shot at a big league job, unless he gets on the Chad Cordero fast track.

BP Articles

Bill Bray is referenced in the following articles.

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BP Chats

No BP chats have mentioned this guy.

BP Roundtables

DateRoundtable NameComment
2010-10-06 10:00:002010 Playoffs Day OneI remember when Bill Bray was the cost-effective first-round pick in one of the last Expos draft. I remember him closing out wins for William & Mary's best starter, Chris Ray. (Kevin Goldstein)
2010-10-06 10:00:002010 Playoffs Day OneRemember when Bill Bray and Gary Majewski was a paltry return for Austin Kearns? Those were the days.... (Brandon Warne)
 

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2014, Bill Bray threw 2,454 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2007 and 2012, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2012, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (90mph) and Slider (83mph).