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He's probably very handsome. Michael Bowden
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 21
6' 3"
215 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 GRN 1B 9 6 0 24 24 107.2 91 31 118 9 53% .293 -11 1.14 3.53 7.27 7.19 11.1 4.9 5.6 1.9 -16.4 0.0
2006 WIL 1C 0 0 0 1 1 5.1 9 1 3 0 55% .323 -31 1.96 8.82 10.61 13.50 19.3 3.9 1.9 0.0 -4.1 -0.2
2007 LNC 1C 2 0 0 8 8 46.0 35 8 46 1 46% .288 17 0.93 1.37 3.77 2.98 7.9 2.6 5.5 0.4 12.3 1.4
2007 PME 2A 8 6 0 19 19 96.7 105 33 82 9 37% .337 -2 1.43 4.28 6.53 6.07 11.0 3.8 5.4 1.4 -4.6 1.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 6:50 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 10 7 0 24 24 144.0 145 55 104 16 42% .290 16 1.39 4.03 4.19 3.92 8.5 3.1 5.9 1.0 28.6 4.0 4.1
75o 8 8 0 24 24 135.0 145 55 94 18 41% .301 11 1.48 4.73 4.74 4.58 9.1 3.4 5.7 1.1 15.7 2.6 2.8
60o 8 8 0 23 23 131.3 145 55 90 18 41% .305 9 1.53 5.05 4.98 4.87 9.4 3.4 5.6 1.2 10.5 2.1 2.3
50o 7 8 0 23 23 126.7 145 55 85 19 41% .310 6 1.58 5.42 5.27 5.23 9.7 3.5 5.5 1.3 4.6 1.4 1.7
40o 6 8 0 22 22 121.0 145 54 79 19 41% .317 3 1.64 5.89 5.64 5.67 10.1 3.7 5.4 1.4 -2.1 0.7 1.0
25o 5 9 0 22 22 114.3 143 54 72 20 41% .324 -1 1.72 6.47 6.09 6.20 10.6 3.9 5.2 1.5 -9.6 -0.1 0.2
10o 4 8 0 27 17 96.7 137 51 55 20 41% .344 -16 1.94 8.12 7.38 7.73 12.0 4.3 4.7 1.9 -26.3 -1.9 -1.6
Weighted Mean 7 9 0 25 25 137.7 159 60 92 20 41% .311 6 1.59 5.51 5.33 5.31 9.7 3.6 5.5 1.3 3.3 1.4 1.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

20%

58%

12%

12%

1.23

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 21) 7 9 0 25 25 137.7 159 60 92 20 41% .311 6 1.59 5.51 5.33 5.31 9.7 3.6 5.5 1.3 3.3 1.4 1.7
2009 (age 22) 7 8 0 30 20 126.3 144 52 84 19 41% .308 1 1.55 5.45 5.21 5.25 9.6 3.4 5.5 1.3 3.7 1.3 1.6
2010 (age 23) 6 8 0 33 18 118.7 144 48 73 18 39% .317 -5 1.61 5.81 5.52 5.58 10.2 3.3 5.0 1.4 -0.8 0.7 1.1
2011 (age 24) 6 8 0 35 17 120.0 140 45 82 16 41% .318 1 1.53 5.34 5.06 5.17 9.8 3.1 5.6 1.2 4.3 1.2 1.5
2012 (age 25) 6 7 0 34 15 106.0 127 39 74 15 41% .324 0 1.56 5.58 5.32 5.37 10.1 3.0 5.8 1.3 1.7 0.8 1.2
2013 (age 26) 5 6 1 37 11 92.0 112 32 61 13 41% .324 -3 1.55 5.55 5.26 5.36 10.2 2.8 5.5 1.3 1.5 0.6 1.0
2014 (age 27) 3 3 0 22 6 54.7 66 20 36 8 41% .321 -3 1.56 5.60 5.31 5.40 10.2 2.9 5.5 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.8

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .285 .383 .470
vs RHB .282 .359 .446
Split +.003 +.024 +.024
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.7 $2,450,000 3.8 7.0
2009 1.6 $2,525,000 4.2 6.9
2010 1.1 $1,350,000 -0.2 4.9
2011 1.5 $2,875,000 4.8 8.0
2012 1.2 $1,925,000 2.1 4.5
2013 1.0 $1,725,000 1.8 3.9
2014 0.8 $1,475,000 1.3 3.4
Peak 8.1 $8,850,000 14.9 35.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.58 5.23 6.20 5.31
2009 4.51 5.13 6.50 5.25
2010 4.90 5.72 7.00 5.58
2011 4.30 5.45 6.34 5.17
2012 4.46 5.52 6.63 5.37
2013 4.42 5.63 6.95 5.36
2014 4.55 6.06 8.22 5.40


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 12% 0% 20%
2009 20% 7% 22%
2010 24% 7% 19%
2011 33% 13% 23%
2012 42% 21% 17%
2013 49% 32% 16%
2014 64% 37% 13%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

60

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Jeff Suppan 1996 59 11 Colby Lewis 2001 49
2 Eric Hurley 2007 56 12 Troy Patton 2007 48
3 Jose Lima 1994 54 13 Hayden Penn 2006 48
4 Javier Vazquez 1998 54 14 Brian Rose 1997 48
5 Robert Pugmire 2000 53 15 Ryan Feierabend 2007 47
6 Kris Honel 2004 52 16 Luis Andujar 1994 46
7 Brad Radke 1994 52 17 Frankie Rodriguez 1994 46
8 Amaury Telemaco 1995 51 18 Anthony Swarzak 2007 46
9 John Stephens 2001 50 19 Sean Douglass 2001 45
10 Ricky Nolasco 2004 49 20 Dustin McGowan 2004 44

Player Comments

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2007

A highly-touted high schooler, Bowden`s impressive arsenal includes a curve considered one of the best of the 2005 prep class. His unorthodox delivery generated concern--`He takes a long time to short-arm the ball,` says one observer--but analysis at the American Sports Medicine Institute concluded that he`s not unduly taxing his arm. After a limited debut in the Gulf Coast League in 2005, Bowden skipped to Low-A Greenville, where he was the team`s youngest player. He justified the move, pitching nearly as well as fellow 2005 supplemental first rounder Clay Buchholz, who`s two years his senior. Definitely one to watch.


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