Michael Bowden

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 6:50 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	10	7	0	24	24	144.0	145	55	104	16	42%	.290	16	1.39	4.03	4.19	3.92	8.5	3.1	5.9	1.0	28.6	4.0	4.1
75^o	8	8	0	24	24	135.0	145	55	94	18	41%	.301	11	1.48	4.73	4.74	4.58	9.1	3.4	5.7	1.1	15.7	2.6	2.8
60^o	8	8	0	23	23	131.3	145	55	90	18	41%	.305	9	1.53	5.05	4.98	4.87	9.4	3.4	5.6	1.2	10.5	2.1	2.3
50^o	7	8	0	23	23	126.7	145	55	85	19	41%	.310	6	1.58	5.42	5.27	5.23	9.7	3.5	5.5	1.3	4.6	1.4	1.7
40^o	6	8	0	22	22	121.0	145	54	79	19	41%	.317	3	1.64	5.89	5.64	5.67	10.1	3.7	5.4	1.4	-2.1	0.7	1.0
25^o	5	9	0	22	22	114.3	143	54	72	20	41%	.324	-1	1.72	6.47	6.09	6.20	10.6	3.9	5.2	1.5	-9.6	-0.1	0.2
10^o	4	8	0	27	17	96.7	137	51	55	20	41%	.344	-16	1.94	8.12	7.38	7.73	12.0	4.3	4.7	1.9	-26.3	-1.9	-1.6
Weighted Mean	7	9	0	25	25	137.7	159	60	92	20	41%	.311	6	1.59	5.51	5.33	5.31	9.7	3.6	5.5	1.3	3.3	1.4	1.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
20%	58%	12%	12%	1.23

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 21)	7	9	0	25	25	137.7	159	60	92	20	41%	.311	6	1.59	5.51	5.33	5.31	9.7	3.6	5.5	1.3	3.3	1.4	1.7
2009 (age 22)	7	8	0	30	20	126.3	144	52	84	19	41%	.308	1	1.55	5.45	5.21	5.25	9.6	3.4	5.5	1.3	3.7	1.3	1.6
2010 (age 23)	6	8	0	33	18	118.7	144	48	73	18	39%	.317	-5	1.61	5.81	5.52	5.58	10.2	3.3	5.0	1.4	-0.8	0.7	1.1
2011 (age 24)	6	8	0	35	17	120.0	140	45	82	16	41%	.318	1	1.53	5.34	5.06	5.17	9.8	3.1	5.6	1.2	4.3	1.2	1.5
2012 (age 25)	6	7	0	34	15	106.0	127	39	74	15	41%	.324	0	1.56	5.58	5.32	5.37	10.1	3.0	5.8	1.3	1.7	0.8	1.2
2013 (age 26)	5	6	1	37	11	92.0	112	32	61	13	41%	.324	-3	1.55	5.55	5.26	5.36	10.2	2.8	5.5	1.3	1.5	0.6	1.0
2014 (age 27)	3	3	0	22	6	54.7	66	20	36	8	41%	.321	-3	1.56	5.60	5.31	5.40	10.2	2.9	5.5	1.3	1.0	0.3	0.8

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.285	.383	.470
vs RHB	.282	.359	.446
Split	+.003	+.024	+.024
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	1.7	$2,450,000	3.8	7.0
2009	1.6	$2,525,000	4.2	6.9
2010	1.1	$1,350,000	-0.2	4.9
2011	1.5	$2,875,000	4.8	8.0
2012	1.2	$1,925,000	2.1	4.5
2013	1.0	$1,725,000	1.8	3.9
2014	0.8	$1,475,000	1.3	3.4
Peak	8.1	$8,850,000	14.9	35.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.58	5.23	6.20	5.31
2009	4.51	5.13	6.50	5.25
2010	4.90	5.72	7.00	5.58
2011	4.30	5.45	6.34	5.17
2012	4.46	5.52	6.63	5.37
2013	4.42	5.63	6.95	5.36
2014	4.55	6.06	8.22	5.40

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	12%	0%	20%
2009	20%	7%	22%
2010	24%	7%	19%
2011	33%	13%	23%
2012	42%	21%	17%
2013	49%	32%	16%
2014	64%	37%	13%

60

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Jeff Suppan	1996	59		11	Colby Lewis	2001	49
2	Eric Hurley	2007	56		12	Troy Patton	2007	48
3	Jose Lima	1994	54		13	Hayden Penn	2006	48
4	Javier Vazquez	1998	54		14	Brian Rose	1997	48
5	Robert Pugmire	2000	53		15	Ryan Feierabend	2007	47
6	Kris Honel	2004	52		16	Luis Andujar	1994	46
7	Brad Radke	1994	52		17	Frankie Rodriguez	1994	46
8	Amaury Telemaco	1995	51		18	Anthony Swarzak	2007	46
9	John Stephens	2001	50		19	Sean Douglass	2001	45
10	Ricky Nolasco	2004	49		20	Dustin McGowan	2004	44

Player Comments

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2007

A highly-touted high schooler, Bowden`s impressive arsenal includes a curve considered one of the best of the 2005 prep class. His unorthodox delivery generated concern--`He takes a long time to short-arm the ball,` says one observer--but analysis at the American Sports Medicine Institute concluded that he`s not unduly taxing his arm. After a limited debut in the Gulf Coast League in 2005, Bowden skipped to Low-A Greenville, where he was the team`s youngest player. He justified the move, pitching nearly as well as fellow 2005 supplemental first rounder Clay Buchholz, who`s two years his senior. Definitely one to watch.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	GRN	1B	9	6	0	24	24	107.2	91	31	118	9	53%	.293	-11	1.14	3.53	7.27	7.19	11.1	4.9	5.6	1.9	-16.4		0.0
2006	WIL	1C	0	0	0	1	1	5.1	9	1	3	0	55%	.323	-31	1.96	8.82	10.61	13.50	19.3	3.9	1.9	0.0	-4.1		-0.2
2007	LNC	1C	2	0	0	8	8	46.0	35	8	46	1	46%	.288	17	0.93	1.37	3.77	2.98	7.9	2.6	5.5	0.4	12.3		1.4
2007	PME	2A	8	6	0	19	19	96.7	105	33	82	9	37%	.337	-2	1.43	4.28	6.53	6.07	11.0	3.8	5.4	1.4	-4.6		1.3

Historical Stats